Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
1. It is led by institutions and funds, not private investors. Global quantitative easing created a huge and mobile pool of capital in constant need of a place to call home. As the need for a safe haven became apparent among the stewards of that capital, the demand for gold flourished. The consistent presence of funds and institutions as buyers in this rally, as represented by the growth in ETF stockpiles, is one of its hallmarks and represents one of the major differences between this gold rally and rallies of the past. Though private investors have been late to the game, the rapid development of the physical market for gold coins and bullion in the United Kingdom is testament to the fact that sentiment can change quickly.
Wednesday, October 09, 2019
Gold in the Negative Real Interest Rates Environment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Many believe that negative interest rates will never arrive to the United States. This can’t possibly happen here. The discussions of their theoretical benefits almost remind you of the not-in-my-backyard mentality. But this is not true – they are already present in America. Hard to believe it? Hiding in plain sight, let’s take it a step further and look at gold in the negative real interest rates environment.
Many people believe that negative interest rates are the ailment of Europe and Japan, and that they will never materialize in the United States. But this is not true. They are already present in America. Can’t believe it? Please take a look at the chart below.
Tuesday, October 08, 2019
Gold It’s All About Real Interest Rates Not the US Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_Pento
The Federal Reserve’s recent need to supply $100’s of billions in new credit for the overnight repo market underscores the condition of dollar scarcity in the global financial system. This dearth of dollars and its concomitant strength has left most market watchers baffled.
Since 2008, the Fed has printed $3.8 trillion (with a “T”) of new dollars in an effort to weaken the currency and boost asset prices--one would then think the world should now be awash in dollar liquidity. Yet, surprisingly, there is still an insatiable demand for the greenback, leading many to wonder what is causing its strength. And importantly for precious metals investors, there is a need to understand why this dreaded dollar strength has not served to undermine the bull market for gold.
Monday, October 07, 2019
Silver Is Cheap – And Getting Cheaper / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Silver is definitely cheap. By almost any standard of measurement, the price of silver is cheap. It is cheap relative to gold, it is cheap compared to its recent peak in 2011, and it is cheap historically. For some, that apparently means that silver is a bargain, too. I’m not so sure.
Those who tell us silver is cheap relative to gold say that silver’s price is likely to rise higher, relative to gold, going forward.
But a currently higher gold-to-silver ratio could also drop, favoring silver relative to gold, even if prices for both declined from here, rather than moving higher. In that case, silver’s price would not drop as much relative to gold.
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Monday, October 07, 2019
Four Fundamental Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
By Andy Hecht : Starting and June and through the beginning of September, gold and silver prices were back in bullish mode. Gold rose to its highest price since 2013 and silver to its peak since 2016. The nearby gold futures contract traded up to a high at just under $1560 per ounce. Silver peaked at just under $19.54.
Markets rarely move in a straight line, and corrections can be healthy for bull markets. A price retracement cleans out stale long positions and creates an environment that brings in new buyers. Some market analysts and traders believe that the two precious metals will experience a deeper correction, and lower prices are on the horizon. I believe that any price weakness in the gold and silver markets will turn out to be a buying opportunity. I remain bullish on the two metals that are the world’s oldest forms of currency. Gold and silver are means of exchange that have been around a lot longer than any of the legal tender in circulation around the world today.
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Monday, October 07, 2019
Gold and Silver Taking a Breather / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
This year at AOTH we have tackled a number of reasons for gold and silver’s rise, aiming to explain “in layman’s terms” what is behind the seemingly relentless move upward - despite the trend-busting reality of a high US dollar. We’ll get to that further down this article, but for now, we are summarizing all that we know about why now might be, in our opinion, an excellent time to be beefing up our gold/ silver bullion hoard, and doubling down on promising juniors exploring for precious metals.
Gold
Impeachment safe haven
Washington, DC is once again in turmoil. The talking news heads are all a-twitter over a whistleblower’s statement that President Donald J. Trump had a conversation with the president of Ukraine, about former vice-president Joe Biden, who is seeking the Democratic nomination to run against Trump in 2020.
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Sunday, October 06, 2019
Craig Hemke: Ignore the Elliott Wave “Buffoons” Calling for a Gold Crash / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report. Craig is a well-known name in the metals industry and runs one of the most highly respected websites in our space and provides some of the very best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets that you will find anywhere.
Craig, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?
Craig Hemke: Mike, my friend, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for the invite.
Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Love to get you back on and thanks for the time. Well, the recent smash in the metals prices was reminiscent to what we saw in the markets in 2016, at least in silver. Prices ran higher up to about $20 an ounce and then got hammered back down where they continued trading in a range between about $14 and $17 until this year's breakout. Do you think we'll see the metals once again be put back into their box here or do you think it will be different this time around? I guess that's the million-dollar question for silver bugs, what do you think?
Saturday, October 05, 2019
The True Causes Behind the Yield Curve Inversion and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
By now, everyone and their brother has heard about the yield curve inversion. How come it has inverted and how much should we read into it? Is it really such a reliable indicator of an upcoming recession? Let’s dig into the true causes behind the inversion and find out what its meaning for the gold market.
Is the yield curve inverted? Well, it depends. Although the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has normalized somewhat in September, it remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, after a short dip below zero in August, the spread between the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasuries spent time in positive territory, as the chart below shows.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Stumbling Manufacturing and Rising Gold – Now or Later? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
American manufacturers are scoring ever deeper recessionary readings. We haven’t seen this bad an ISM Manufacturing reading in quite a while. Can it take the broader economy with it? And what about gold – when exactly will it get its shine?
ISM Manufacturing Index Drops To Disturbingly Low Level
The September ISM Manufacturing Index registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. It’s not only below 50 percent, which indicates a contraction, but it’s actually the lowest level since June 2009, when the Great Recession formally ended, as the chart below shows.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
Silver Eyes Fourth Quarter Rebound / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter the often favorable fourth quarter trading season with the potential to reinvigorate their major uptrends.
Despite posting impressive gains in the third quarter, gold and (especially) silver finished it on a downbeat note.
On Monday, sellers smashed silver spot prices down 3.6% to test the $17.00/oz. level.
The disappointing finish to the month and the quarter does raise the possibility that momentum selling could continue to drag prices lower in the near term. However, quarter-end profit taking and portfolio shuffling by institutional futures traders could also work in favor of an immediate price bounce.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Gold Price Forecast to Exceed $10,000/Ounce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nick_Barisheff
Before making an investment decision, every investor should understand true inflation. But what is true inflation? Currently, inflation is measured using a floating basket of goods in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continues to understate true inflation.
Two useful tools for determining true inflation figures are John Williams’s Shadow Statistics and the Chapwood Index. John Williams, a renowned economist, provides excellent insights about the severity of misstated inflation rates. Using a fixed basket from 1980 to compare to today’s prices determines that inflation is actually 9.46%, not 1.75% as represented by the CPI. Exhibit A provides a visual interpretation of discrepancies between reported inflation and true inflation.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.
But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.
In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty
The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Mike_McAra
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
- Ecclesiastes 1:9
History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
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Friday, September 27, 2019
Silver/Gold Ratio is a Guide as Inflation Signals Fade Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…
The Continuum is Still in the Deflation Camp (9.24.19)
Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon (9.11.19)
The first and more recent post noted that the 30yr yield needs to climb above 2.2% to even think of hinting toward a temporary inflation trade. The chart from that post shows that while the Continuum is of a long, deflationary structure the periodic pings upward to the (monthly EMA 100) limiter often represent times of cyclical inflationary bursts. This morning the 30 year yield stands at 2.15%.
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Thursday, September 26, 2019
Will Gold Benefit from Trump Impeachment Proceedings? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, Nancy Pelosi announced that the House would launch a formal impeachment inquiry. Is it a well-grounded argument, publicity stunt or reflection of the growing polarization inside the Democratic party? Storm in a tea cup or not, should Trump be worried? And gold?
What’s This All About?
On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, announced that “the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry.” That’s a big shift among Democrats, who control the House. They were talking about the Trump impeachment for months and for a variety of reasons, but never launched the process. What changed their minds?
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Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Gold not in Real Bull Market Yet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Is Gold now back in a bull market? Most gold bugs think so and are quick to proclaim that.
But, could Gold remain in a secular bear market? It hasn’t made a new all time high in 8 years and the perma-bull, financial asset loving crowd certainly believes so.
This is semantics because what really matters is making money and nothing else.
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