Category: Gold and Silver 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, September 19, 2014
Finding Zero / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
“If you want to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.”
― Nikola Tesla
The silver market is always one day from panic. The same could be said for the bond market or the dollar. In the age of electronic price discovery and massive reckless monetary Imbalance anything can happen - and it probably will.
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Friday, September 19, 2014
Another Miserable Week for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold and silver drifted lower over the course of the week, with a challenge to the $1200 level for gold becoming a distinct possibility. Silver is struggling to hold $18.50. Mainstream opinion has been negative for commodities generally, with a strong dollar undermining them. Brent crude, for example, is now well under $100.
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Friday, September 19, 2014
Silver Price at Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Silver has just kept tanking and tanking over the last couple of months. And taking my silver longs with it. It's been painful stuff. That will teach me to trade against the trend. It's certainly a different picture to all the hooting and hollering of the bulls back in June.
Silver is now back to just above its major yearly low of US$18.17 set in 2013. I often remark how the market likes to take things to the extreme and once again we have a clear case of that here. So, we are now at a critical juncture. If price were to break to new yearly lows now then price would likely capitulate. I just do not see this happening. Let's investigate.
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Friday, September 19, 2014
Silver - Almost Time to Backup the Truck and Load up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The following is a plausible forecast / prediction
Despite my known disdain for time and price predictions, I base the plausible forecast for an October 2014 generational low in the dollar-denominated value of Silver upon the cyclical duration of a prior elongated bear market that occurred from May 1968 thru November 1971.
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
Silver Price: A Collapse and a Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Complaint From A Silver Bull
The last 3 plus years have been difficult. My faith in the silver bull market and my fear of fiat currencies has been shattered. There is no joy in "Silverville" - nothing but worry and despair!
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
Silver Buyers Keep Stacking And Demand Higher Despite Falling Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The silver price has remained subdued this year, falling just less than 5% year-to-date, and is now near a 14 month low. Naturally, investor psychology has been affected by the price weakness.
Quoted today in Bloomberg News, Mark O’Byrne, director of GoldCore said that “sentiment remains quite bad in the silver market.”
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
Monetary Policy Weighs on Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Background
Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar so when the dollar declines gold rises. The dollar is affected by monetary policy as decided by the various central bankers across the planet. We recently covered the effect of the European version of QE with an article entitled; ‘Why ECB QE Is Bearish For Gold Prices’ so today we will take a quick look at the ramifications for the precious metals sector emanating from the monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve held today.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Gold Price Hammered by Strong U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The Pope just observed that the situation in the world today amounts to a Third World War - he's right and although he didn't point the finger, we know what it's all about - the maintenance and imposition of the dollar as the dominant world currency, by diplomacy or by force as deemed necessary. We will come to these geopolitical considerations later as they of course have huge implications for the dollar and thus for Precious Metals.
As you probably know we had expected gold and silver to start picking up in the last update, for various reasons, the most important of which was that they are at important support at the most bullish time of year, seasonally, for the Precious Metals, but the dollar rally accelerated even more, driving gold and silver still lower and deeper into key support which is now being severely tested. If the dollar continues higher then gold and silver could crash key support, but this doesn't look likely short-term because the dollar is now critically overbought and needs to take a breather.
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
It’s Not the Fed Taking Gold Down, but the Vote in Scotland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Some of you might be wondering what happened to gold at the 4pm (MDT) open, particularly in light of the rather benign, steady-as-she-goes Fed announcement. This looks like it might have to do with the Scotland independence vote in the UK tomorrow. [One man's opinion] A late poll has the vote closing to 51% (No) – 49% (Yes). In other words a complete toss-up with the Yes vote gaining momentum going into tomorrow’s proceedings.
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Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Gold Report - U.S. National Debt Surges $1 Trillion In Just 12 Months / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The U.S. financial position continues to deteriorate badly and in the last 12 months has increased by over $1 trillion dollars.
Nick Laird of Sharelynx has just reproduced his fascinating and timely chart showing the US debt limit, the actual US debt and the gold price all in one chart. From 2000 until around the first quarter of 2013, there was a very strong and close correlation between the growth of the US national debt and the rise in the US dollar gold price.
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Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Can Gold Price Finally Recover? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold recently fell to its lowest level in seven-and-a-half months as the dollar rose to a 14-month high. Easing tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East also acted as a drag on gold and silver prices. Investors have been asking the obvious question as to whether gold can recover from here and if a bottom of at least short-term duration is imminent?
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
U.S. Dollar and Gold Elliott Wave Projection / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold is now at a key juncture and it should reveal its price action structure in the coming weeks. The first chart is my main Elliott Wave count and shows a Double Three Corrective Pattern (W)-(X)-(Y) in process from the top in 2011. You can see that Gold is currently in a corrective channel and should end soon a Wave (ii) which is also composed of a Double Three Corrective Pattern. If that scenario plays out Gold should enter a Wave (iii) that should send it to around $1550 which would be the minimum target.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Don't Miss This Gold Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Brien Lundin, founder of Jefferson Financial, producer of the New Orleans Investment Conference and Gold Newsletter, believes at least a small amount of the massive liquidity produced by loose monetary policy in Western economies will find its way into mining equities following a summer pullback in equity prices—but don't wait long. Lundin expects the "buying opportunity" to last for two, maybe three weeks before seasonal gold demand pushes prices higher. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Lundin discusses a select group of gold and precious metals equities that he expects to perform well as near-term news reaches the market.
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Why ECB QE Is Bearish For Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The recent action by the ECB appears to have caught many gold bulls off guard. A common interpretation of the impact that a potential quantitative easing program would have on gold prices was that it would be very bullish. This argument was based on the concept that money printing is bullish for gold, and that QE1 and QE2 by the Fed triggered major rallies in the yellow metal. Whilst we do not dispute that QE1 and QE2 by the Fed were indeed bullish for gold, we strongly disagreed that the ECB would introduce a program that would spark a major rally. In fact we went further, predicting that what the ECB was going to do was in fact highly bearish for gold, and in this article we will endeavour to explain why.
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Junior Miners Breaking Out Higher Forecasting Gold and Silver Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Summary
• Despite post Labor Day sell-off in precious metals, junior miners maintain uptrend.
• The junior miners are usually a leading indicator. Is this outperformance forecasting an inflection point for the precious metals?
• Going into the overbought US equity, bond dollar and real estate market is dangerous, while precious metal stocks are trading at pennies on the dollar.
• Major generalist funds may soon enter the precious metals market as QE ends. A large cash position is waiting on the sidelines.
• US dollar rally may not last as QE expires. Inflationary pressures could pick up.
Monday, September 15, 2014
The Silver Price Sentiment Cycle / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The following chart shows:
Silver Prices: 1972 – 1979
- Silver moved upward from about $1.40 in 1971, rallied to about $6.40 in March 1974, and fell to about $4.30 in August 1977.
- The March 1974 peak took about 3 years and ended about 4.55 times its starting point.
- The August 1977 low took another 3.5 years and fell about 33% from the peak price.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Why Goldman Sachs is Wrong on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs has recently reiterated its negative view on gold, which it has held for the past year. However, it is now doubling down on this view and advising clients to actually go short the metal. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman noted "Our target is really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominate force here and put more downward pressure [on prices]".
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Marc Faber - “I Want To Be Diversified, I Want To Own Some Gold” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Veteran investor Marc Faber, author of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, reiterated the need for gold in a diversified portfolio when interviewed last week on CNBC.
Faber, a resident of Thailand, is an advocate of gold storage in Singapore, and believes that a diversified portfolio will help protect against future market corrections which he believes are on the horizon.
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Monday, September 15, 2014
Will The Swiss Vote to Get Their Gold Back? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
On November 30th, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to vote in a referendum on gold. On the ballot is a measure to prohibit the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from further gold sales, to repatriate Swiss-owned gold to Switzerland, and to mandate that gold make up at least 20 percent of the SNB's assets. Arising from popular sentiment similar to movements in the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands, this referendum is an attempt to bring more oversight and accountability to the SNB, Switzerland's central bank.
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Last Stand Approaching for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Gold ended its 10-year bull market in 2011 when it topped out at $1,900 an ounce. It was a spectacular run from $250 an ounce in 2001.
Since then it rallied back several times only to have those rallies fail at lower highs.
Its most recent rally attempt, beginning in January, looked to have a better chance of succeeding. On the technical side, gold was oversold beneath its important 30-week m.a. again, and it was rising from a frequently bullish double-bottom formation.
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