Category: Gold and Silver 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold Three Steps Forward, Two Steps Back / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Jared Dillian writes: I have been a gold bull, unrelentingly, since 2005. It has been quite an adventure.
Nine years ago, I was 31—still pretty young. I hadn’t read enough Austrian economics to even understand why I should like gold, but I did nonetheless. Besides, it was going up. And coincidentally, the folks at State Street had just come out with GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and I was a market maker in it. Without GLD to invest in, I wonder if I would have had the inclination to learn about investing in gold futures or physical gold.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
“Paper Gold” and Its Effect on the Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
By Bud Conrad, Chief Economist
Gold dropped to new lows of $1,130 per ounce last week. This is surprising because it doesn’t square with the fundamentals. China and India continue to exert strong demand on gold, and interest in bullion coins remains high.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Our Take on the Swiss Gold Referendum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
We have recently been asked to comment on the upcoming referendum in Switzerland on gold. In particular, we were asked if this could be the turning point for the gold (and other precious metals) market that has been declining for more than 2 years now. The simple law of supply and demand dictates that when the demand for something increases, its price should go up. However, things are rarely simple in the financial markets and it’s definitely not simple in case of gold. Will this be the start of a domino effect and escalation of gold price? You’ll find our take on this timely matter below.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Now Is A Good Time To Buy Gold Says Fidelity Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Joe Wickwire, research analyst and portfolio manager at Fidelity investments, presented some very grounded, reasonable arguments as to why one should buy gold at the LBMA Precious Metals Conference in Lima, Peru which concluded on Tuesday.
Fidelity Investments are a largely family owned mutual fund and financial services company. It is one of the largest mutual fund and financial services groups in the world. Founded in 1946, the company has since served North American investors. This year they were voted best investment company in an online broker review by Stockbroker.com. They have gradually moved up in the rankings from eighth place in 2011.
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Thursday, November 13, 2014
Gold's Smoking Gun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Tonight I want to explore the relationship between the US dollar, the Japaneses Yen and gold. Most investors know that a rising US dollar is usually a bad sign for commodities and the precious metals complex. When the US dollar is falling commodities and the precious metals complex usually do pretty well. When the US dollar topped out in 2000 that's when gold and commodities started their bull markets that lasted until 2011. Since that time the US dollar has been slowly trending higher while most commodities and the precious metals complex have been moving lower. This long term monthly chart for the US dollar shows you the high in 2000 which marked the beginning of gold's bull market. At the bottom left hand side of the chart, in big base #2, point #4 marks the high for gold's bull market. Since that low at point #4 you can see how the US dollar has been slowly rising since 2011 which was the peak for gold and most commodities. One last note on the chart below. The US dollar is now in its third month of a breakout move from big base #2 which is a fractal of big base #1. If you've been wondering why the US dollar has been so strong lately it's because it's in breakout mode. This is what a breakout looks and feels like.
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Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Swiss Regulator: “Clear Attempt To Manipulate Precious Metals ” … “Particularly Silver” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Further proof of manipulation of gold and silver prices - if any were needed - came overnight as Switzerland’s financial regulator (FINMA) found “serious misconduct” and a “clear attempt to manipulate precious metals benchmarks” by UBS employees in precious metals trading, particularly with silver.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Silver to S&P Ratio: What It Tells Us / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Take the price of silver, multiply by 100, divide by the S&P 500 Index and chart it for 30 plus years. What do we see?
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
New Currency Wars Cometh - Gold To Be “Last Man Standing” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Currency wars are set to warm up again, after Japan's radical decision to further debase its currency through an intensification of already significant monetary easing. There was a palpable coldness from China's Premier Xi Jinping as he greeted Japan's President Abe at the APEC summit in Beijing.
Tensions are normally high between the two countries but are even more so in recent months.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Switzerland - Vote Yes on Gold Initiative / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
On November 30th, the Swiss are voting whether to amend their country's constitution on an initiative entitled 'Save our Swiss Gold.' The Swiss gold initiative appears widely misunderstood, both inside and outside of Switzerland. We discuss implications for gold, the Swiss franc and Switzerland as a whole.
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Monday, November 10, 2014
Gold Price Rigging Settlement With UBS - Other Banks To Follow / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Suspicions that the price of precious metals are frequently manipulated by a few international banks were further confirmed over the weekend. UBS agreed to settle with various international regulatory bodies investigating rigging in foreign exchange and precious metals markets.
While failing to admit wrongdoing one person familiar with UBS's internal probe said that the bank found “a small number of potentially problematic incidents at its precious metals desk," reports the Financial Times:
UBS is expected to strike a settlement over alleged trader misbehaviour at its precious metals desks with at least one authority as part of a group deal over forex with multiple regulators this week, two
people close to the situation said. They cautioned that the timing of a precious metals deal could still slip to a date after the forex agreement.
Sunday, November 09, 2014
A Major Low in Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
It's been a while since I have written an article on Gold, but the recent price action could well be the very clue we have been looking for. I have been very bearish Gold for a number of years/months, month by month the market has slowly moved towards the $1150 target we have been looking for.
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Saturday, November 08, 2014
Gold And Silver - Charts Show Power Of Elite's Central Bankers / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
When considering Precious Metals fundamentals do not apply, and that is key to understanding how to relate your holdings of physical and/or interest in gold and silver. Nothing else matters. There are many sites that give minute details of the depletion of gold and silver stocks on the COMEX and LBMA; many that report on the demand for and scarcity of both metals; just last week, the news flash heard around the PM community on how silver American Eagles were sold out...shades of 2013-type news that dominated for several weeks. [Yawn].
Consider this: everything you have heard, including information of which you have not heard but others have is already priced into the market! Compile every sort of bullish news available, and almost all of it is true, yet gold and silver hit recent 4 year lows. How are all those news events working out, and not just for fundamentalists? So far, none of this information has mattered, at least with respect to current price levels. Ultimately, all of these known factors will have an impact on price. For now, all anyone can conclude is that legitimate demand is not a market-driver.
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Saturday, November 08, 2014
Did Gold and Silver Just Get Their Greenspan Put? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The world's central banks and derivatives traders have been having their usual fun with gold and silver lately, dumping huge volumes of futures contracts into thin markets to produce massive declines -- just when precious metals SHOULD have been soaring in response to near-global debt monetization.
But something interesting happened as this latest smack-down really got going. Physical buyers -- who goldbugs have for years been expecting to ride to the rescue, finally did. Chinese and Indian gold imports, which had trailed off earlier in the year, soared in response to the recent price declines. There's some debate about exactly how much these guys are buying, but it certainly looks like they're talking all that's being produced by the world's mines, and then some.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Gold and Silver Hit By Strong U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The dollar continued its upward path against the major currencies this week, and gold and silver prices suffered accordingly. The bears have maintained the upper hand, as shown in the following charts of Comex prices and Open Interest.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Gold's Fundamental Supply Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Demand
Global gold demand was 964t in Q2 2014, significantly reduced from the record high in Q2 2013.
ETF outflows slowed sharply.
Central Banks continued to buy gold for the 14th consecutive quarter in Q2 2014. CB's purchased 118t in Q2 2014 up 28% over Q2 2013. The announcement of a fourth CBGA in the second quarter also reiterated that sales will not be forthcoming from some of the largest holders.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Silver Price and Powerful Forces / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Example 1: When a golfer hits a shot to the green he often yells “sit” as he orders the ball to slow or stop near the flag. Even professionals indulge in this bit of satisfying self-delusion. However, the ball responds to powerful forces, such as wind, the undulations of the green, its own momentum, and gravity.
Example 2: A mother demands that her teenage son clean his room. Instead he responds to powerful forces, such as testosterone surges, cute girls, and teenage rebellion.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Gold Bug Psychology Must be Neutered / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology. Well, every bear or bull market is about psychology, but the intensity of this dynamic has been something to behold in the gold sector over these last few years.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Marc Faber Warns Not to Hold Any Gold in the U.S. / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Dr Marc Faber has again urged people in the world to be diversified, own physical gold and to be their own central bank.
In another fascinating interview with Bloomberg, Dr. Marc Faber covered Japan's massive QE experiment, the slump in oil prices and the importance of diversification and owning physical gold.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
The Silver Mining Cartel / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The silence of the precious metals producers in the face of blatant, ongoing, illegal, and seemingly never ending price suppression has been deafening. How could the primary gold and silver producers sit by and watch as the price of their product is fixed by an illegal pricing mechanism?But just when it seemed it couldn't be any darker, we got a glimpse of the dawn.
Last month Keith Neumeyer, the celebrated CEO of First Majestic, changed the game. He made a shocking and graceful statement that should cause shock waves to reverberate across the sector.
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Friday, November 07, 2014
Gold and Silver Bear Markets Close to the Bottom but Not There Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
The selloff in precious metals intensified over the past week. GDXJ declined 25% in seven days while Gold plunged below $1180 to $1140 and Silver plunged below $16 and to as low as $15.20. Precious metals are becoming extremely oversold and the bear market is clearly in the 9th inning. Be on alert for a snapback rally to repair the extreme oversold conditions. Although we are likely very close to the bottom in the miners, Gold’s current position continues to leave me skeptical.
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