Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, February 07, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 7th Feb / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market again recovered from an end of month decline to start a new month off in positive fashion. This has been an ongoing theme during this seven month uptrend. Economic reports for the week were quite good: 13 positive and 3 negative. On the negative side, monthly Payrolls came in lower than expected, construction spending and the M1 multiplier both declined. On the positive side, ISM manufacturing/services improved, along with the Chicago PMI, monthly auto sales, factory orders, personal income/spending, PCE prices, Q4 productivity, the ADP, weekly jobless claims, unemployment, the WLEI and the monetary base.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
Stock Market Indexes Look Like April 2010 Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The charts of the indexes today remind us of April 2010 where the indexes chewed around for what seemed like eternity before rolling over.
So let’s explore that statement shall we? Below are the S&P 500 and OTC Comp charts of the April 2010 highs.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
Stock Market SPX Closed Above Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The FDIC Failed Bank List announced three new bank closures this week. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the American Trust Bank, based in Roswell, Ga., with $238.2 million in assets and $222.2 million in deposits; the North Georgia Bank of Watkinsville, Ga., with $153.2 million in assets and $139.7 million in deposits; and the Chicago-based Community First Bank, with $51.1 million in assets and $49.5 million in deposits.
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Saturday, February 05, 2011
Stock Market Bubbles, Crowds and Credit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
“…now that the recession is over, we have to face the fact that the government must make cuts.”
“We put rules in place to prevent another financial crisis…” President Barack H. Obama, State of the Union, Tuesday, January 24 ‘11
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Saturday, February 05, 2011
Stock Market Investors Be Careful - It’s Not Easy to Get Rich Quick! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Over the last decade investors and home-owners experienced a series of brutal beatings in what was historically a very short period of time.
Many investors took heavy losses in the 2000-2002 bear market when even the blue chip S&P 500 lost 50% of its value. Many then got caught up in the housing bubble, maxing out mortgages that were unsafe unless home prices kept rising at a record pace. They lost sizable amounts when instead the housing bubble burst and home prices plunged. In too many cases they lost their homes as well. No sooner had the stock market recovered in the 2003-2007 bull market than investors lost heavily again in the 2007-2009 bear market, when once again the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Is The U.S. Stock Market Rally Sustainable? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
This week, the financial media celebrated as the Dow closed above the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 19th, 2008. For many, this milestone is another sign that the financial nightmare of the past three years will soon fade in the rearview mirror.
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Friday, February 04, 2011
Stocks Getting Boost From Commercial Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
While it would have seemed implausible during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, the financial markets and economy are getting a boost from commercial real estate. According to Bloomberg:
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Friday, February 04, 2011
Sloppy BubbleOmics: Case-Study John Maudlin And Jeremy Grantham / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
John Maudlin recently put out an article called “Pavlov’s Bulls, the Importance of Asset Class Bubbles for Value Investors and Why They Occur”, which pretty much summarizes popular misconceptions about financial bubbles.
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Friday, February 04, 2011
Stock Market Investors Need to be Aware of Power in Mass Collateral Damage / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Those seated comfortably in every niche of concentrated power should duly note that their well-guarded monopolies of power and influence are not nearly as invincible as they might perceive them to be.
As evidenced in Egypt, on the turn of a dime, what at one moment appeared status quo turned business-as-usual into a living nightmare.
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Friday, February 04, 2011
How To Spot and Trade Stock Market Negative Divergences / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Well once again it’s all about the 60-minute charts with support and resistance clearly defined. We made a move up to resistance and are now in the process of turning around here.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Is the Stock Market Making a Major Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
With the often misused term “overbought” being thrown around regularly on Wall Street these days, it is a good time to take a step back and assess the odds of a new bear market rearing its ugly head from current conditions.
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Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Dow Jones Stocks Index Closes Above 12,000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The stock market indices started off the month with a bang in an explosive move from the get-go that took them sharply higher all morning and reached the rally highs on the Nasdaq 100 just before noon at around 2329. The S&P 500 at that point reached 1308 and change, which was bettered by just a fraction later in the day, but not confirmed on the Nasdaq 100. In any case, the rest of the day was spent backing and filling, pulling back just a little bit in orderly fashion. They tried to rally late in the session, which put the SPX at new highs, but not the NDX. In the last 10 minutes they rolled back, gave back some of the gains, but still the Dow closed over 12,000.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Profit From This Monthly Stock Market Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I call it the ‘monthly strength period’, the strong tendency for the market to be up for the first few days of each month. It’s a pattern that’s been around for a very long-time. Norman Fosback first pointed it out in his 1976 book Stock Market Logic.However, few investors are aware of its importance.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Pavlov’s Bulls, the Importance of Asset Class Bubbles for Value Investors and Why They Occur / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
My long-time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO, as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention, very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter that I regard as a must-read. In fact, anything Jeremy writes is a must-read. This week’s OTB is a little longer than most, but it is actually two separate parts, which can be read at different times – but you want to take the time. He makes his predictions for the year in the first part, and gives us some valuable insights into the stock market in the second. The first part reads quick. Think through the second part.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Beware When Stock Markets Enter Irrational Exuberance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Thank god markets are emotional, how else would we get fantastic over bought and under bought prices. The only trick for the investor is to know when prices are considered to be within a period 'irrational exuberance'. Some use RSI and Stochastic, others use sentiment readings of confidence, option call put ratios and standard deviations from a long term moving average. Many of these tools have false readings and hence a combination is preferred when forming an opinion and unfortunately that normally end in a confused state of mind for the investor.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Stocks Rally Off Oversold 60's... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Keep in mind, we're in a bull market, thus, it's not easy to keep the market down once the shorter time frame charts hit oversold conditions. In a bull market you rarely stay oversold for any length of time. It's 30 RSI, or close, and then another rally up, although it may not be a very strong one once the overall picture says some selling is warranted.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Stock Market Ending Diagonal Dead Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We appear to have a 'rolling top' with broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is often seen near major tops. The Friday 01-28-11 sell-off is the initiation of a short term correction and consolidation before we put in a final new high as part of this final topping formation and long term right shoulder construction pattern.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Egypt Million Man March Leaves U.S. Stock Market Vulnerable Short-Term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Since large institutional investors (hedge funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc.) are the primary drivers of asset prices, it pays to keep an eye on them. The market’s ‘big boys’ seem to be focused on this Dow Jones News Service report:
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
What Kind of Stock Market Correction Is This? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It's widely accepted that stocks are in a correction at this time. The question remains: "what kind of a correction and how long and how deep will it go?". My analysis has been and continues to be that we are in the initial stages of a bull market (in Elliott Wave terms SPX is currently in Wave 3 of a five wave bull run). While this conclusion needs to be checked and reevaluated on an ongoing basis against market action, particularly during any corrective mode, at this juncture I see no evidence that indicates a major trend change in progress. I'm approaching this decline as a pullback within an uptrend and will be working to identify a good entry point for a long position. At the same time I will be working to identify a set of criteria that would cause me to cash out of profitable long positions and consider reversing to the short side.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Stock Market Charts Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
George Leong writes: For the fourth consecutive day, the DOW broke above 12,000 intraday on its chart, but failed to hold on. I feel it will just be a matter of time before the index will close above 12,000. The last time the DOW closed above 12,000 on its chart was June 19, 2008.
The S&P 500 is also at a critical point on its chart and broke above the key 1,300 level intraday on Thursday before closing below. A strong break at 1,300 could propel the index towards 1,400.
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