Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, April 18, 2011
Stock Monday Mayhem, Panic Selling Has Set In! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In overnight and pre-market trading the US Dollar posted a strong rally which in turn caused a sharp selloff in the equities market. The market is currently down 1.6 – 2.3% depending on the index traders are following.
Here is what I see on the charts going forward a few days.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
What Slow Economic Growth and High Inflation Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: With slow economic growth and high inflation looming on the economic horizon, investors turn to earnings reports for a clue as to whether their favorite companies can handle what's ahead.
First-quarter earnings season started with a bang this week with reports from major technology, basic materials and financial companies that mostly underwhelmed the crowd. The major averages closed the week right about where they started after rallying from a sizeable dip in the middle.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stocks Don't Follow the Dollar Index So Hold On! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
So far in 2011 the equities market has made some sizable whip saw type moves that even veteran traders have had difficulty being on the right side of the price action. The year started out with equities being very overbought and extended making is virtually impossible for a low risk trader to buy on pullbacks. This was primarily due to the fact that there were no real pullbacks other than for a day or two which was immediately followed by prices continuing to grind higher.
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Monday, April 18, 2011
Stock Market May Require Further Consolidation Before Breaking to New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend – The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a bull market. Cycles and P&F projections point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Sunday, April 17, 2011
Stock Market Still In The Handle... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The question is will it stay that way. The Nasdaq has made a clear handle bottom at yesterday's gap down low reversal at 2733. The top is clear at 2815. An 82-point range which makes sense. Three percent gives the market plenty of room to drive everyone nuts. Just enough room to head fake everyone on an almost daily basis. Handles are classic for making you think one thing is happening, but it doesn't. You can be so sure about what's next only to discover you were totally wrong about your thinking process. The more you play in a handle the more you lose. Very few can do it just right. The deeper problem with handles is that you never know just how long they are going to last. There is no historical reference for how long it will drag on. It could be just a few weeks, such as we have just experienced, or it can be months, sometimes many many months. No fun for sure.
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Saturday, April 16, 2011
Stock Market Uptrend Resuming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Last week the world indices did quite well while the US struggled. This week the US held its own while the world indices were solidly in the red. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Asian indices were -1.0%, Europe dropped 1.6%, the Commodity equity group lost 3.4%, and the DJ World was -1.1%. Bonds were +1.2%, Crude lost 2.8%, Gold added 0.8% and the USD was flat.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
SPX Stock Market Correction Looms, Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Stock bull markets don’t rally higher in a nice linear fashion. Their advance is much more chaotic, flowing and ebbing. Two steps forward are inevitably followed by one step back. Today the US stock markets, despite their recent selloff in early March, still look to be in this correction mode. These ebbings present stock traders with awesome buying opportunities, the best ever seen within ongoing bulls.
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Friday, April 15, 2011
How Foreign Central Banks Could End the U.S. Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Shah Gilani writes: William McChesney Martin Jr., the revered former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is remembered for many things - including an unprecedented term as chairman that lasted from March 1951 to January 1970.
But Martin is perhaps best remembered for the central-banking aphorism that says that the Fed's most important job is "to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going." (See accompanying graphic below.)
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Thursday, April 14, 2011
Stock Market Both Sides Holding Where They Have To... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The bulls were rocking. Nasdaq 2808 looked to be a slam dunk in terms of breaking through. Time after time the bulls tried and time after time the bears said not now. The gap is too tough for you. The bulls finally did go away. The bears were on deck and made their move. Down we went. It was pretty hard and pretty fast. One moment we're trying to get through 2808, and the next moment you're watching the bulls trying to defend the 50-day exponential moving average at 2738 Nasdaq. A fast seventy-point reversal for sure. Suddenly it looked as if this critical support level was going to get taken out with force. Not to be the case. Not yet anyway.
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2011 / News_Letter / Stock Markets 2011
The Market Oracle NewsletterApril 3rd, 2011 Issue #7 Vol. 5
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Stock Market Buying Opportunity? Find Out What Extreme Investor Sentiment Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Free Report: Buying Opportunity? Find Out What Extreme Market Sentiment Levels Mean for Your Investments. Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a new report on the historical importance of extreme market sentiment levels. You can learn more about it below, or follow this link to download the free report now.
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Stock Market Testing The Lower End... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
We test the high end of the range and we test the low end of the range. Back and forth with now another effort by the bears to bring things down to the lower end of the range. The bulls have tried several times to get the job done, but they have been unable to do so. Now the bears will get their chance. It would actually be good if the bears would succeed a little bit here, because it would ramp up some fear short-term and get that bull-bear spread down below 40% for starters. I don't like seeing there spread above 40%. Handles such as we're in now often serve to remove some of the froth in the market as more and more folks hear about the end of the bull market because we've stopped going up for a while. The longer we handle, or break down some, the more you'll get people thinking another bear market is upon us, which is not a bad thing for the bulls. Let's get this number down to 30%, or lower, in the coming weeks, and then I'll feel much better about things.
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Monday, April 11, 2011
Corporate Earnings Projections, Stock Market Support, and Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Earnings season kicks off in full force today with Alcoa Inc. (AA), the biggest U.S. aluminum producer, scheduled to announce first-quarter earnings after the market close today. Alcoa is the first member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report.
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Monday, April 11, 2011
Rising Interest Rates Could Jolt Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks traded with all the precision of a baseball skipping into the Boston Red Sox outfield over the past week, which is to say it was pretty sloppy. The major equity averages settled near the flat line, but it was a mess getting there after the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since mid-2008, there was a 7.1 magnitude aftershock in Japan, and Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN) bought a rival chip maker at incredible premium.
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Monday, April 11, 2011
Was The Preview To The 2011 Blockbuster / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The world is evolving a lot faster than I suspect most realize. The Fed has created the aura of a V shaped global recovery in the form of continually rising equity markets. Bernanke has created the mirage of prosperity. The unemployment rate has fallen below 9% as more disgruntled workers leave the work force. Paper stock wealth is up nearly 100% in two years. Indeed the Russell 2000 is up 43% since QE2 as the chairman has so eloquently declared.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 11, 2011
Stock Market Should Get Another Attempt at Going Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-15.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began an upward move in the form of a bull market. Cycles and P&F projections point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
World Stock Markets Uptrending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
A very interesting week from a worldwide perspective. All the foreign markets we follow: Asia +1.4%, Europe +0.8%, the Commodity equity group +0.7% and the DJ World +0.9%, were all higher on the week. But the US ended mixed to negative: SPX/DOW mixed and the NDX/NAZ -0.6%. Economic reports for the week were sparse but mostly positive. On the downside ISM services and the M-1 multiplier. On the upside consumer credit rose, along with the WLEI, excess reserves and the monetary base, wholesale inventories remained positive and jobless claims declined. Bond yields are now uptrending again, Crude soared 5.1%, Gold gained 3.2% and the USD is making new lows. Next week we have the FED’s Beige book, the CPI/PPI and Options expiration.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
Stock Market Gap To Gap...Hesitation At February Highs... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
What a boring market. I'm sure every one of you feel the same way. This is what happens when a handle is trying to be put in place. The market finds an area of resistance it will struggle with, but also finds an area of support it appears it doesn't want to lose. Those lines seem to be clear, especially on the Nasdaq where we find gap resistance at 2808, which is stopping all rally attempts. We hit 2808 today on the nose for the high of the day. The bottom has two areas that come together as one. The 20-day exponential moving average is at 2759 with massive gap support at 2760. 2759/2760 will be very tough for the bears to take down and keep down. Today was boring at its best. After a gap up that tested 2808 we spent basically six trading hours in a back and forth market. Neither side could do a thing all day. They both tried.
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Saturday, April 09, 2011
Stock Market Trends, Remember the Past Remember the Wolf / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
“The so-called ‘surprises’ of history have emerged not because other countries did not have information, but because they refused to believe it.” (pg 919) Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time (1966)
Any serious student of financial markets studies the relationship between credit, markets, and crowds. In addition, they are always fascinated by mathematical patterns that unfold in markets; math being used in our markets today more than any time in human history.
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Thursday, April 07, 2011
April Key Events And The Outlook For Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
7th April: ECB rate decisionA rate rise is priced in. The Euro is currently threatening to break out from long term resistance against the US Dollar, but the bearish sentiment against the Dollar suggests a bounce is overdue. If the Euro does break out then Dollar index support levels at 75 and then 72 may provide that Dollar rally. Although Portugal appears to be edging closer to a bailout, the Euro strength reflects the fact that Spain's troubles have eased, as shown in the inverse relationship in the chart below. It appears the markets are confident that bailouts will be limited to the smaller economy nations.
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