Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Sunday, May 29, 2011
Stock Market Clues in Vertical Credit Spreads and the Russell 2000 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Before discussing why I think the S&P 500 may be setting up to rally I have to discuss an options strategy that often times is overlooked. Besides writing covered calls and cash-secured naked puts (same risk profile by the way), one of the most basic spread constructions available to option traders is the vertical spread.
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Sunday, May 29, 2011
Stock Market Bottoming Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Another choppy week in the US stock market that led to the fourth consecutive, albeit small, weekly loss. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negatives 8:5. On the negative side: durable goods orders, pending homes sales, the M1-multiplier, and the WLEI declined; while weekly Jobless claims rose. On the positive side: we had increases in new homes sales, the FHFA housing index, PCE prices, the monetary base and consumer sentiment. Remaining positive were Q1 GDP and personal income/spending.
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Saturday, May 28, 2011
Stock Market Down Month....Bulls Holding Key Support....Bears Holding Key Resistance.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Boring times such as we are experiencing now can also be construed as interesting if you dig underneath the "nowhere" movement of the market. It's really interesting how both sides are holding massive support and resistance when the charts approach them. So many times this past week the bears banged hard on 1315, even hitting 1311 intraday. They simply could not get the job done.
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Saturday, May 28, 2011
Seasonality and Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
When investors think of the stock market’s annual seasonality, as expressed by the adage ‘Sell in May and Go Away’, they usually relate it to the U.S. market.
But in fact the historical pattern of stock markets making most of their gains in the winter months, and experiencing most of their bear market declines and corrections in the unfavorable summer months, is also common in global markets as well.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Buying Stocks At Alternative Entry Points / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Say it with us! Pullbacks Off Highs and grand slams to the 50-day average are the only two patterns you’ll ever have to know. Be it in uptrending markets or even in markets where some would say “Market In Correction”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 27, 2011
Stock Market Near Term Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The near term technical picture for stocks appears bullish:
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Thursday, May 26, 2011
Stock Market Trending Toe To Toe... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It's a heavyweight battle between the bulls and the bears. No one is able to take the other one down. Each side lands a few good blows, but somehow neither one will go down. Solid chins on both sides. The bulls have held the line rather well when it looked like all was lost. The bears held things down when it looked like the bulls were ready to rock higher after the first small pullback roughly three weeks back. The trend has been lower over the past month, but the amount of losses incurred are rather small. Only about 4.5% as of the close of trading today. That losses have done their job in that the daily index charts have unwound quite a bit off of overbought. In fact, severely overbought, especially on the weekly charts which are also flashing negative divergences still.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Last Chance to Access 120 Pages of Stock Market Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Dear Investor,
There are just days left for you to download Elliott Wave International’s current issue of Global Market Perspective, FREE!
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
How To Handle A Stock Market Down Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
On Monday, the markets gapped down and stayed down most of the day.
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Stock Market Bears Getting Close.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
That rising trend line has actually been broken to the down side, but the psychological level of 1315 is holding up for the moment. No arguing that the bears are making their move over the past couple of weeks. It took many tries to first take out 1335 on the S&P 500. On about the fifth try they broke it down and allowed for a back test that ultimately failed for the bulls. It's just what you'd expect from the bears once they captured this first important level of support. Now their focus is 1315 and nothing else. They want it badly but it's not coming easily. The bulls know the importance of this important support zone and will fight as hard as humanly possible to make it hold. You can see the erosion.
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Monday, May 23, 2011
Stock Market Uptrend Still Weakening / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Another choppy week that ends in the red for the third time this month. Economic reports were definitely on the negative side outnumbering positives by 9:2. On the positive side the weekly Jobless claims improved and the Monetary base rose. On the negative: the NY/Philly FED both declined, along with Housing starts, Building permits, Industrial production, Capacity utilization, Existing homes sales, the WLEI and Leading indicators. The NAHB index was flat.
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Sunday, May 22, 2011
Stock Market Low May be In, Breakout May be Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began a move which evolved in a bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Sunday, May 22, 2011
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Structurally Positive, But Weak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I can sum up S&P’s current internals using four words:
Structurally positive, but weak!
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Saturday, May 21, 2011
Stock Market Wave Counts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
This week I want to spend some time on some long term views, as I have received some questions about my views to the long term trend. Whilst I am not really a fan of long wave term counts, we are following a couple of ideas.
I am sure there are readers asking themselves is this a bull or bear market?
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Saturday, May 21, 2011
Stock Market Shifting.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
That's the best word I can use to describe this market. It's shifting from acting as a bull to more of a bear, or better yet, a correction in the making. Upside is becoming more strained. The bulls are struggling to gain some steam as those weekly negative divergences across the board on all the major index charts are holding the market down. In addition, on the last small move higher, the daily MACD didn't turn up at all, which isn't what you want to see if you're a bull expecting the next leg up in this ongoing bull market. When oscillators act more strained you know it's going to be a tough time to get going to the up side. So you need to respond accordingly, and that means, simply, to take the foot off the gas and slow down dramatically.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
Stock Market Wealth Builder Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The volatility which was predicted in the last quarterly brief continues apace with the markets continuing to climb a “wall of worry” as is typical.
On the basis of Dow Theory, the bull run is still in place with the Dow Transports indicating that new highs are anticipated.
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Thursday, May 19, 2011
Stock Market Back And Forth.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Still no breakdown. Not close today. Close yesterday, but not close today. The first attempt at losing 1315 S&P 500 was met with strong buying off a 1318 low yesterday into today. The bears got close. They smelled success, but were thwarted away with relative ease. This is completely normal action as the bears will never break a market down at the most critical level of support on the first try. It can take more attempts than one thinks possible. So today we blasted up off the first test ,and now we're not even close to breaking down.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Stock Market Defining Lines Are Clear....Bears Making A Move.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It's all about 1315 and 1370. 1370 being the old highs and 1315 being the trend line from the old lows. Anything that takes place in between is simply noise. But my job is to try to figure out which way things will break, which is just not clear right now. The bears are fighting down here. Trying to rid 1335 with force and get through the 50-day exponential moving average at 1327. Because the two levels are so close the bears really need to push this towards 1315 quickly, so the bulls will then struggle with support-turned-resistance at 1327/1335.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Don't Be Fooled by Last Week's Stock Market Dip, U.S. Stocks Are Headed Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: U.S. stocks struggled during a Friday the 13th week that was rigged like a haunted house with a trap door. The main problem for equities was strength in the dollar, which has the effect of undermining the value of commodities and, lately, stocks.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Stock Market Near and Medium Term Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I took partial profits on my stock indices longs on Friday as the market action reflected Friday morning's post:Read full article... Read full article...