Category: US Housing
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2021
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the coronavirus pandmeic deliver the perma bears their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for for over a decade now?
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Sunday, February 21, 2021
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
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Saturday, February 20, 2021
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
American homeowners just got a lot richer. According to internet realtor Zillow (ZG), US housing gained $2.5 trillion in value last year. That’s the biggest jump since 2005.
Simply put, the housing market is booming right now. The CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers said: “We’re experiencing the strongest housing market I’ve seen in my 30 years.” Mortgage lenders handed out a record $4.4 trillion in home loans in 2020. America’s largest lender, Quicken Loans, was writing $1 billion of loans per day!
This is one of the greatest comebacks in American history. Between 2006 and 2009, the average home lost over a quarter of its value. More than eight million Americans lost their homes during the collapse.
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Thursday, February 18, 2021
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Monday, February 15, 2021
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Monday, February 08, 2021
Will Commercial Real Estate Recover in 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
With the COVID-19 pandemic devastating many industries worldwide, tourism and commercial real estate are two of the most prominent and the most negatively impacted.
With remote working forced upon many companies across the UK and abroad, the commercial property market has plummeted; “fallen off a cliff” is possibly the best metaphor to highlight the industry's plight amid the pandemic.
With tourism hit as well, hotel rent delinquency rates grew from 1.5% in the US during January 2020, to approximately 25% in July 2020 according to one report from Yahoo Finance.
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Monday, November 09, 2020
Americans Are Buying Homes Sight Unseen: Here’s Why / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Lester Knispel bought the $1.5 million white-columned house on the second fairway. His Porsche is now parked in the garage. And family pictures hang in the living room.
But Lester and his wife have never set foot inside their new country club home! They live in California, and didn’t want to visit Florida during the lockdowns.
So instead they toured the five-bedroom mansion virtually, bought it, and then shipped the car and furniture soon after. “I never thought I’d buy something like this, sight unseen” Knispel told the Wall Street Journal.
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Sunday, November 01, 2020
US Housing Market Is In A Full-Fledged Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
The US housing market is booming. Last month, the number of Americans buying new houses spiked to a 14-year high. Home prices are growing at their fastest pace since 1991. And US mortgage lenders just recorded their biggest quarter in two decades. Lenders handed out a staggering $1.1 trillion in home loans in the past three months!
I’ve been pounding the table on the US housing market since early 2019. And it’s still one of the best money-making opportunities in the entire stock market today. Not even coronavirus could derail this runaway train.
For example, mortgage applications jumped 50% this year to their highest levels since 2005. In other words, US housing is as strong as it was at the height of the housing bubble.
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Friday, August 07, 2020
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
What if I told you that US housing is one of the best money-making opportunities today? You’d probably think I’m crazy. After all, how can anyone think housing is a good bet right now… especially in the middle of a global pandemic?
Well, today I’m going to show you the facts. You’ll see exactly why I’ve never been more excited about US housing. You’ll see why the coronavirus hasn’t even dented this market. And you’ll find out the best way to play this boom for maximum profits.
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Friday, July 31, 2020
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Commercial real estate investors are in an especially precarious position should another financial crisis unfold.
A July 18 Marketwatch article titled "The open secret in commercial real estate is that owners regularly take cash out of properties ..." says:
Borrowers, ahead of this [year's] downturn, pulled more equity out of U.S. commercial buildings than ever before. ...
Debt relief conversations already started in April ... between the hardest-hit commercial property borrowers and their lenders.
Since then, delinquent commercial mortgage-backed securities loans have climbed to nearly 10%, rivaling the worst levels of the global financial crisis [in 2007-2009].
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Monday, July 20, 2020
US Housing Market Collapse Second Phase Pending / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into what we believe is the US pending real estate collapse, we’ll explore more data supporting our expectations. In the first part of this article, we highlighted the Case-Shiller data showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels and how earning levels have collapsed after the COVID-19 virus event. Our research team believes thee extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, layoffs, and other economic contractions will result in a late 2020 or early 2021 shift in the residential real estate market.
We already know that commercial real estate has experienced one of the worst declines in decades. Delinquencies have skyrocketed and thousands of US businesses have entered bankruptcies. Main street and consumer services sectors will likely continue to feel the pain related to the post-COVID-19 economy for many months still. The question before all investors should be “how will the price levels reflect the changes in earning and economic data throughout this transition?”
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Tuesday, June 02, 2020
US Real Estate Stats Show Big Wave Of Refinancing Is Coming / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Current data released for the May Real Estate and Consumer Spending activity suggests a wave of refinancing is taking place – and not much else. Pending home sales slipped to 69. That level is 7.4 points below the lowest level in 2010 – at the height of the 2008-09 credit crisis that collapsed the global Real Estate values. How big is this new low level in Pending home sales? It’s HUGE.
It suggests the rate of sales in the US for Real Estate has collapsed beyond levels that were seen at the worst possible time in recent history (July 2010). In fact, over the past 20 years, there has never been a time when the pending home sales index has collapsed below 74 to 75 – until today.
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Friday, May 22, 2020
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy. Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).
Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities. Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income. For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.
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Thursday, May 21, 2020
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our multi-part article related to our belief the Real Estate sector is about become the next big segment to begin to collapse as a result of the COVID-19 virus event and the extended shutdowns taking place throughout the globe, we’ll continue to review the data and explore various options for skilled technical traders.
In Part I, we shared some recent data that suggests the housing market is starting to fracture at quite a fast rate. Today, we’ll explore additional data that could help us understand where opportunities exist and how to prepare for this potential second phase of a broader financial collapse.
Over the past few years, the housing market has continued to rally past almost everyone’s expectations. The COVID-19 virus event was simply a catalyst for a revaluation event within a hyper-inflated financial system. For nearly 20 years, global central banks continued to pour capital in the global markets attempting to spark inflation rates that supported rising interest rates. This is like pumping Helium into a failing balloon attempting to keep it inflated and floating. As long as the structure of the balloon does not rupture, it might hold up for a while longer. Once the structure bursts, it’s all over.
With the housing market, the revaluation event that usually takes place is a contraction in price that usually lasts about 3.5 years. Are we setting up another revaluation event in the housing market?
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to digest economic and global data, our researchers have focused on Real Estate as we believe the contraction in the US economy, spanning corporate, main street, and millions of Americans, will quickly reflect in a slowing Real Estate market. Our researcher attempted to dive into the most recent data from Realtor.com (https://www.realtor.com/research/) to identify any trends or insights we could find to prepare for a broader contagion event.
Current data suggests the US Real Estate market has begun a dramatic slowdown even though the listing and pricing data does not reflect this data yet. In short, more homes are being pulled from active listings and those that are still listed are sellers that can wait out their price or are under pressure to sell because of other factors. Historically, Summer months typically result in a moderate decrease in price levels as more homes get listed for sale and “Days On Market” (DOM) lengthens. Something big is starting to take place almost everywhere in the US as current data suggests inventory is shrinking, price levels are still moderately high and DOM level has increased dramatically.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.
At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.
No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.
Financial history shows that it's happened before.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020
US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to delve into the looming Real Estate crisis that will likely hit the US and globe over the next 12 to 24+ months, we want to focus on the human psychological process of dealing with a crisis event and how that relates to economic engagement. In the first part of this research article, we discussed how the time-line and events that have unfolded over the past 120+ days have setup a continuing global crisis event. The best of our knowledge, there has been nothing like this, other than massive wars like WWII, that have taken place on the planet over the past 75+ years.
This presents a very real possibility that human psychological processes have engaged throughout the planet that may disrupt how effective the recovery efforts are in the near future. If humans engage in a traditional psychological crisis-cycle process, then there is little chance that the economic recovery will reach 2018-2019 levels very quickly. Let’s review the psychological process of a crisis event.
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