Category: US Housing
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 22, 2020
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research into the Real Estate market and our expectations over the next 6+ months or longer, we want to point out the disconnect between the current US stock market rally and the forward expectations related to the real economy. Our researchers believe the current data from Realtor.com as well as forward expectations suggest a major shift related to “at-risk” real estate (both commercial and residential).
Unlike the 2008-09 credit crisis, the COVID-19 virus event is quickly disrupting consumer engagement within the global economy and disrupting spending activities. Spending is shifting to online, fast food, and technology services for those that still have an income. For those that have lost their jobs, spending is centered around surviving the COVID-19 virus event and hoping to see new opportunities and jobs when things open back up.
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Thursday, May 21, 2020
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our multi-part article related to our belief the Real Estate sector is about become the next big segment to begin to collapse as a result of the COVID-19 virus event and the extended shutdowns taking place throughout the globe, we’ll continue to review the data and explore various options for skilled technical traders.
In Part I, we shared some recent data that suggests the housing market is starting to fracture at quite a fast rate. Today, we’ll explore additional data that could help us understand where opportunities exist and how to prepare for this potential second phase of a broader financial collapse.
Over the past few years, the housing market has continued to rally past almost everyone’s expectations. The COVID-19 virus event was simply a catalyst for a revaluation event within a hyper-inflated financial system. For nearly 20 years, global central banks continued to pour capital in the global markets attempting to spark inflation rates that supported rising interest rates. This is like pumping Helium into a failing balloon attempting to keep it inflated and floating. As long as the structure of the balloon does not rupture, it might hold up for a while longer. Once the structure bursts, it’s all over.
With the housing market, the revaluation event that usually takes place is a contraction in price that usually lasts about 3.5 years. Are we setting up another revaluation event in the housing market?
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Tuesday, May 19, 2020
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to digest economic and global data, our researchers have focused on Real Estate as we believe the contraction in the US economy, spanning corporate, main street, and millions of Americans, will quickly reflect in a slowing Real Estate market. Our researcher attempted to dive into the most recent data from Realtor.com (https://www.realtor.com/research/) to identify any trends or insights we could find to prepare for a broader contagion event.
Current data suggests the US Real Estate market has begun a dramatic slowdown even though the listing and pricing data does not reflect this data yet. In short, more homes are being pulled from active listings and those that are still listed are sellers that can wait out their price or are under pressure to sell because of other factors. Historically, Summer months typically result in a moderate decrease in price levels as more homes get listed for sale and “Days On Market” (DOM) lengthens. Something big is starting to take place almost everywhere in the US as current data suggests inventory is shrinking, price levels are still moderately high and DOM level has increased dramatically.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
The world has been hearing a lot about "homes" in recent months, as in -- "stay there" to help halt the spread of COVID-19.
At the same time, the sales of those homes in the U.S. have seen a significant slowdown.
No doubt about it, the coronavirus has played a big role. Yet, a notable divergence was taking shape in the housing market long before the current pandemic.
Financial history shows that it's happened before.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020
US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to delve into the looming Real Estate crisis that will likely hit the US and globe over the next 12 to 24+ months, we want to focus on the human psychological process of dealing with a crisis event and how that relates to economic engagement. In the first part of this research article, we discussed how the time-line and events that have unfolded over the past 120+ days have setup a continuing global crisis event. The best of our knowledge, there has been nothing like this, other than massive wars like WWII, that have taken place on the planet over the past 75+ years.
This presents a very real possibility that human psychological processes have engaged throughout the planet that may disrupt how effective the recovery efforts are in the near future. If humans engage in a traditional psychological crisis-cycle process, then there is little chance that the economic recovery will reach 2018-2019 levels very quickly. Let’s review the psychological process of a crisis event.
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Friday, April 24, 2020
US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few weeks and months have been very interesting to see how the global central banks and governments have attempted to position themselves ahead of this COVID-19 virus event. We continue to suggest that we are just starting the process of navigating through this potentially destructive virus event. We believe the sudden onset of the virus pandemic has sent a shock-wave throughout the globe in terms of expectations and valuations that are, just now, starting to become “real”. Let us try to explain our thinking and how this relates to Real Estate…
Before we continue much further, we suggest taking a moment to review our previous research articles related to the Real Estate market which we predicted the selloff and falling values. Both of these articles were at the top of the Yahoo finance and Google with hundreds of thousands the week we posted them:
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Thursday, March 26, 2020
US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system. If you have not read PART I – Click Here
Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com).
An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms. Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Concerned About The US Real Estate Market? Us Too! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone’s forward expectations related to the US and global economy. Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https://www.npr.org).
All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about “what happens after 8 to 12+ months? How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process – if at all?”. Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
There’s More Than One Way To Invest In Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Joshua_Rodriguez
Investing in real estate is a hot topic these days. After all, there are several people that have made a killing doing it. Not to mention, several television shows have popped up over the past few years, outlining the fact that there’s money in the space.
However, the general perception is that in order to invest in real estate, you have to have enough money to buy a house, piece of land, or commercial building. While this is one way to go about an investment in real estate, it’s not the only way to do it. If you’re considering getting into the space, here are a few ways to consider breaking through:
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Does history repeat itself? Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up? What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?
First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup. This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen. We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike. They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market.
Much like a magician attempts to distract you just long enough to pull of their new trick, could the political theater, global economic news cycles and the never-ending battle in Washington DC be just enough of a distraction that skilled traders miss this critical setup? We hope not.
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Monday, November 25, 2019
New Threat To US Housing Market & Stocks From Government Deficits / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
A new era began for us all in September and October of 2019, with the introduction of a new element that is likely to become one of the dominant investment market influences in the 2020s.
What is shown in the orange area of the graph above is something brand new. When we understand why the Federal Reserve abruptly reversed course, created $280 billion in new money in two months and injected it into the financial system - then we can also explore why this new element could still just be getting started and could lead to quite different prices and risks for stocks, bonds and homes in the 2020s, making the new decade entirely different from the 2010s or any previous decade.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Why Americans Will Begin Regretting Buying That New Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
There’s one thing that is always true: Most people are not good investors. They buy the most near a long-term top and they sell the most near the bottoms that follow.We have lived in a rare period since World War II wherein housing was first boosted by the first middle class generation (The Bob Hope) who could more broadly afford homes and mortgages, and then by the unprecedented and massive Baby Boom generation’s demand.
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Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Downsizing – What to Watch Out For / Personal_Finance / US Housing
By: Submissions
If you find that your current home is now too big for you, the idea of downsizing can be very appealing. Perhaps your children have moved away and the extra space is making you miss them more. Perhaps you’re starting to struggle with getting up and down the stairs, or with keeping everything clean. Perhaps you just like the idea of having a smaller place in a more convenient location, or of freeing up money so you can live more comfortably. Downsizing isn’t always trouble-free, however. To avoid problems, give some thought to the following.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 18, 2019
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Bill Brame edited Star Trek films before he took up “house flipping.”
During the housing boom, Bill was often “turning around” 14 houses at once with three crews of renovators working full time.
In 2004, he paid $400,000 for a house in Hollywood, California. A year later he flipped it for $1.2 million.
Back then, flipping houses was the most profitable side-job in America. Buy a house, fit it with a new kitchen, sell it for a big mark-up, repeat.
In 2006, one in every 10 homes was bought to flip!
Friday, October 11, 2019
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.
The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?
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Friday, October 11, 2019
What’s Your Plan as the Home Price Index Hits Zero / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
The real estate industry must have the best lobbyists in the country. How else can you explain that a data-driven transaction – buying or selling a home – has become more onerous, and more cumbersome. And overall more painful even as information becomes cheaper and easier to get?These guys are protecting their turf, and we’re paying for it.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Earlier this week I read a great article by Kuppy at Adventures In Capitalism. It brought back memories of the last condo and real estate bubble in Miami… I was there. I was moving to Tampa and sold before the crash that I was nearly alone in forecasting in late 2005 .Kuppy noted that prices had plateaued for a few years and had begun to drop 20% to 35% in South Beach – and worse in the downtown Brickell area. He talks to a friend who makes non-traditional loans against these condos, and he says “it’s about to blow… just give it six to nine months.”
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Wednesday, September 18, 2019
No More Realtors… These Start-ups Will Buy Your House in Less than 20 Days / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Stephen_McBride
Roughly $900 billion worth of real estate changes hands every year in America.
For many folks, buying a home is the biggest decision of their lives.
What is the neighborhood like?
Are the schools good?
How far is the drive to work?
Monday, September 16, 2019
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.
Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
US Housing Market House Prices Trend Forecast Current State / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's been a while since my last analysis of the US housing market, in fact a full 3 years, preceded by my original 3 year trend forecast covering November 2012 to early 2016 that forecast a strong a bull market against expectations at the time (and for many subsequent years), for it's forgotten today that in the aftermath of the financial crisis the prevailing view was that the US housing market was dead for a generation, and this not just from the usual perma doom merchants (I don't like to name names but you know who they are!) but was consensus view at the time.
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