Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, July 09, 2011
U.S. Jobs Report Rains On Soft Spot Hopes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second half.
The economy slowed to only 1.8% growth in the 1st quarter and economic reports have been even more dismal since, to say nothing of the Fed’s QE2 stimulus program having expired at the end of June.
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Friday, July 08, 2011
Warren Buffett on U.S. Housing Market, Employment, Economy and Debt / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Warren Buffett spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu for an hour this morning from the annual Allen & Co. Sun Valley Conference in Idaho. Buffett commented on today's job numbers, saying to "bet very heavily" against a double-dip recession and that employment will gain "big time" on a housing recovery.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
U.S. Payrolls, Keeping Things In Perspective / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The calls for an economic soft patch are growing louder in the face of the ADP print today above expectations. The 13 weeks of weekly claims above 400,000 is not being dismissed simply not discussed.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
U.S. Economy Half Year Review, We Should Be OK, Except... / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Loses Ground / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 58.5 in June from 61.7 in the prior month. The Expectations Index (72.4 vs. 76.6 in May) and the Present Situation Index (37.6 vs. 39.3) fell in June. The soft labor market situation and rising food energy prices have played a role in reducing optimism of consumers.
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Tuesday, June 28, 2011
U.S. May Consumer Spending Augurs Poorly for 2011:Q2 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending fell 0.13% in May following a downwardly revised 0.06% drop in the prior month. Rising gasoline prices have adversely affected consumer spending; purchases of gasoline (nominal) declined in May, the first decline since November. Purchases of cars have dropped for three consecutive months, reflecting the supply chain problem from the natural disaster in Japan that has reduced the availability of cars (see Chart 2).
Monday, June 20, 2011
U.S. Economy 2011 Mid Year Forecast Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Stathis
The story remains pretty much unchanged relative to what I have been discussing over the past several months.
Throughout our research publications I have been pointing to the impressive earnings from U.S. corporations. I have also noted numerous upward revisions in 2011 EPS, which of course implies a higher stock market. As a consequence, I have been bullish throughout this, as well as over the previous year. At the same time, I discussed my expectations of a weaker economy in the second half of the year.
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Friday, June 17, 2011
U.S. Mixed Economic Reports, Housing Starts Moved Up, Jobless Claims Declined / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Economic reports of the past two days present a mixed picture of underlying economic conditions. Factory production data excluding autos moved up but factory surveys - Empire State Manufacturing Survey and factory report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia--point to a weakening of activity. The National Association of Home Builders continue to believe that the housing market is in a slump, but today's housing starts data suggest a small turnaround. Jobless claims numbers point to a small improvement, but the level of jobless claims is elevated.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Small Businesses Remain Pessimistic About the Near Term / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The survey of the National Federation of Independent Business continues to show a pessimistic outlook about business conditions in the near term. The Small Business Optimism Index fell to 90.9 in May from 91.2 in the prior month. It is important to note that the index has fallen for three straight months and the level of the index has failed to move up to levels seen during an expansionary phase of a business cycle.
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Wednesday, June 15, 2011
U.S. Weak Retail Sales Casts Shadow on Q2 Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales fell 0.1% in May, after a revised 0.3% increase in the prior month. Retail sales last declined in June 2010 led by lower gasoline prices. Auto sales dropped in May, which is consistent with the unit auto sales numbers published earlier in the month.
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Key Economic Reports Prior to June 21-22 FOMC Meeting / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
It is widely recognized that the U.S. economy has lost momentum in the second quarter. The FOMC meeting of June 21-22 and Chairman Bernanke's press conference of June 22 will focus on this aspect. In the meanwhile, a string of economic reports are scheduled for publication prior to the FOMC meeting. Of these reports, retail sales, Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and housing starts should be the major market movers and they will have a bearing on the policy outlook presented after the close of the FOMC meeting.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
In our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
Just in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.
If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:
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Sunday, June 05, 2011
Freak-a-nomics and the United States of McDonalds / Politics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Henningsen
This is one of those Freak-a-nomic statistics that, if you were in government, you wouldn’t ever want it to be released to the public, especially during a protracted recession like we are currently witnessing in the US. No would want to admit that the Golden Arches are holding up the American economy.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
U.S. Construction Spending Remains Lackluster / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Total construction outlays rose 0.4% in April, reflecting an increase in home improvement outlays (+7.6%) and expenditures of non-residential outlays (+0.5%). Outlays pertaining to new housing (-0.9%) fell in April.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Falling U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Wipes Out Gains of Last Six Months / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 60.8 in May from 66.0 in the prior month. The 5.2-point decline wiped out a large part of the improvement of the last six months. The Present Situation (39.3 vs. 40.2) and Expectations (75.2 vs. 83.2) indexes both fell in May.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Offshoring has Destroyed the US Economy / Politics / US Economy
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
These are discouraging times, but once in a blue moon a bit of hope appears. I am pleased to report on the bit of hope delivered in March of 2011 by Michael Spence, a Nobel prize-winning economist, assisted by Sandile Hlatshwayo, a researcher at New York University. The two economists have taken a careful empirical look at jobs offshoring and concluded that it has ruined the income and employment prospects for most Americans.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
The American Manufacturing Crisis and Why it Matters / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
Despite the denial chorus of the same politicians, financiers, and economists who told us prior to 2008 that our financial sector was fine, the American public is increasingly aware of the truth: American manufacturing is in a state of deep crisis. (And ,as I argued in a previous article, the recent small uptick in this sector doesn’t change that fact.)Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Greece Economy Structural Problems Compared to US / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many countries have restrictions and requirements on doctors, nurses, lawyers etc. Greece carries the idea to extreme.
According to Keep Talking Greece "closed professions" include beauticians, drama and dance school instructors, bakers, antiques dealers, insurance agents, insurance consultants, employment consultants, diagnostics centre staff, translators, divers, cameramen, driving school instructors, cab drivers, tourist bus drivers, newspaper stand owners, electricians, sound technicians, private school owners, tobacco sellers, gun manufacturers and sellers, hairdressers, private investigators, port workers, real estate agents, lifeguards, carpenters, financiers, opticians, auditors, movie/theatre director and even car mechanics.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Is the U.S. Economic Growth Spurt Over? / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As you know, we’ve been wondering about the exhaustion of the Industrial Revolution innovation…and the bankruptcy of the Social Welfare state as a result.
We take for granted that a healthy economy “grows.” Our governments depend on it to pay the bills. Our investments depend on it too; we buy investments that we hope will become more valuable as sales and profits grow along with the economy. But what if all of our assumptions about what is “normal” are wrong? What if the growth spurt we have known for the last 300 years was the exception, not the rule? And what if it were now coming to an end?
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