Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 13, 2012
U.S. Retail Sales Strong Q4, But Underlying Momentum is Slowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose only 0.1% in December, after a 0.4% jump in November. The strong performance of retail sales in November and December has given a lift to total retail sales in the fourth quarter. It is nearly certain that consumer spending in the fourth quarter (+2.5%, forecast) will exceed that of the third quarter (+1.7%).
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Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Fed Dismisses U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed is becoming more concerned about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, just as the economy looks to be gaining momentum. The unemployment rate has dropped from 9.4% in December of 2010, to 8.5% twelve months later. The American economy has added 1.5 million jobs over the past year, according to the establishment survey of employment, while the household survey shows we have averaged a monthly gain of 230,000 jobs over the past six months. Meanwhile, the average work week and hourly earnings also showed improvement in the December Nonfarm payroll report. In addition, Gross Domestic Product has increased for nine consecutive quarters and is anticipated to post just under a 3% annualized growth in Q4 2011, up from 1.8% during the prior quarter.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Outlook of Small Businesses Improves, But Still Short of Levels Seen in Good Economic Times / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index moved up to 93.8 during December from 92 in the prior month. The improvement is noteworthy and it is the highest since February 2011. However, the level of the index is within the range seen during the recession (see Chart 1).
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Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Headwinds That Could Rock the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The key question about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy for 2012 is if domestic economic momentum that is visible in bullish economic reports of past – ISM factory survey data, Q4 auto sales, and December employment report – will prevail in the rest of 2012 and offset headwinds from Europe (and its associated ramifications) and the setback from a decelerating trend of business activity in China. In the context, we will be providing periodic updates as economic reports are published.
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Wednesday, January 04, 2012
US Economic Forecast for 2012 and the Presidential Election Year Cycle / Economics / US Economy
By: BATR
When it comes to business cycles, the former rules no longer seem to apply. The seminal events that changed the economic landscape after the 2008 financial crash still points to an uncertain future and marginal recovery. If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg business news, you hear that a modest recovery is in place. Accepting this kind of reporting may temporarily make you feel better, but in the real economy, the prospects for a rebound are mere fiction. Prosperity only exists for the chums of the insider financial system, who are immune from actual market conditions. Under the privileged and favoritism model, political subsidies and bailouts are more important than creative industry or innovative execution.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Five U.S. Economy Economic Blunders of 2011 and Five Fixes for 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes : Government's ability to fix the economy's problems may be limited, but it at least should try not to make matters worse. Unfortunately - but not surprisingly - many of the things that happened in Washington this year did the U.S. economy more harm than good. More than two years after the official end to the recession, the U.S. economy is still suffering through sluggish growth and an 8.6% unemployment rate. "They've been wrong from the beginning, and they're still wrong," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald of U.S. government policymakers. "It makes you wonder if any of these people passed Economics 101." That said, here are five of the government's worst economic blunders of 2011:
Sunday, December 18, 2011
U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)
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Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Fed Stands Pat as the Curtain Closes on 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed upgraded the performance of the U.S. economy compared with its assessment in November. The FOMC vote to stand pat was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Chicago Fed President Evans dissented as he would have preferred additional policy accommodation. The economy is now seen to be growing at a moderate pace despite the slowing conditions abroad. The Fed noted that while there are "some improvements in the labor market," the "unemployment rate remains elevated."
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Drop in U.S. Oil Imports Leads to Lower Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion in October from $44.2 billion in the prior month. A 0.8% drop in nominal exports of good and service and a 1.0% drop in imports of goods and services resulted in an overall improvement of the trade gap. Real exports of goods increased 1.2% but real imports of goods fell 0.3% in October. Oil imports declined in October (2.8%) reflecting a lower quantity and price.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 05, 2011
U.S. Economic System Misunderstanding Capitalism / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.
More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.
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Friday, December 02, 2011
The U.S. Consumer is Finally Bouncing Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Consumers shed housing debt in the third quarter while ratcheting up spending elsewhere, raising hope that the single biggest driver of the U.S. economy - consumer spending - is back on the rise.
Mortgage balances fell 1.3% in the July-September period, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, while overall household debt shrank by 0.6%.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
Why the U.S. Economy Will Be Weaker Than Expected in 2012 / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Anyone who hoped the U.S. economy would get back on track in 2011 was sorely disappointed.
The European sovereign debt crisis and the abysmal failure of policymakers to take effective action undermined any chance we had at a strong recovery.
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Thursday, December 01, 2011
U.S. Economic Reports Paint a Bullish Picture / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) of the National Association of Realtors rose 10.4% to 93.3 in October, reflecting gains in all four regions of the nation. The PHSI is a indicator of actual of sales of existing homes with a lead of 1-2 months. The year-to-year increase of the PHSI is noteworthy. However, the issue of contract cancellations is a dark cloud hanging over the housing market. In recent months, the percentage of realtors reporting contract cancellations due to appraisal problems and failure to obtain credit has risen. Therefore, the October PHSI could be an exaggeration of the likely sales of home that will take place. Nonetheless, the increase of the October PHSI is a positive development in the housing sector.
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Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Yellen is Supportive of Additional Fed Action to Support U.S. Economic Activity / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed's Vice Chair Janet Yellen presented a case for additional Fed action to support economic activity in the United States. These two excerpts (emphasis added) from her speech indicate her opinion about the necessity for Fed action
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Is Economic Optimism Warranted Or Not? / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
"Things are not always what they seem; the first appearance deceives many; the intelligence of a few perceives what has been carefully hidden" - Author unknown
Recent economic data has surprised to the upside and once again hope springs eternal. Like a school of bait fish many economists and market pundits seem to be reversing course scrambling to highlight the positives in the economy while ignoring the structural problems that still exist.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
U.S. October Retail Sales Bode Well for the Final Quarter of 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales rose 0.5% in October after a 1.1% increase in September. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of GDP, not the retail sales tally. Unit auto sales rose to 13.26 million units in October from 13.1 million units in September. These numbers imply that auto sales will make a positive contribution to spending in October. Gasoline sales are largely influenced by the price of gasoline; the 0.4% drop in gasoline sales in October reflects lower prices. Gasoline prices show a downward trend in the early days of November, implying a possible drop of the price index in November.
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Friday, November 11, 2011
U.S. Exports Narrows Trade Gap, Possibly Upward Revision of 2011:Q3 GDP / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit narrowed to $43.1 billion in September from $44.9 billion in August. The improvement of the trade gap reflects a 1.4% increase in exports of goods and services of the United States and a small gain of 0.3% in the nation’s imports of goods and services. Although the inflation adjusted petroleum trade deficit widened slightly in September ($11.9n billion vs. $11.5 billion in August), the non-petroleum trade deficit narrowed ($35.4 billion vs. $37.2 billion in August).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
The Continuing Zombification of the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
We have been exploring the zombification of the US economy. Major industries – finance, health, education and defense – have been taken over by zombies, parasites whose real interest is to transfer wealth to themselves, from the part of the economy that remains productive.
As the economy becomes more zombified, the part of it dominated by these non-productive industries increases, leaving fewer resources for the productive part. And as the productive part weakens, so does the entire economy’s ability to produce real wealth, or grow its way out of debt.
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Saturday, November 05, 2011
Stupid Government Tricks, Let’s Tax the Millionaires, Where Will the Jobs Come From? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes. Is Greece going to vote? Take the money? Will it be an orderly default? Should Ireland default? Whatever I write, the situation will change as soon as I hit the send button tonight. (For the record, I think Greece should have a referendum. You don't go into what they are getting ready to suffer without national buy-in. No elitist deals. Put it to the people to decide, one way or the other.)
Friday, November 04, 2011
U.S. Economic Productivity Improves, Labor Cost Remains Contained / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Productivity of the U.S. economy rose 3.1% in the third quarter, after posting decline in the first-half of the year. The downside of the improvement in productivity in the present environment is that it prevents firms from increasing payrolls.
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