Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 20, 2011
How a State Light-bulb Law Could Revive the American Factory / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
South Carolina is close to pulling off a dramatic end-run around the federal government.
If that state succeeds, the end result could have a serious impact on every U.S. manufacturing industry from cars to toilets.
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
U.S. Industrial Production Held Back Partly Related to Natural Disaster in Japan / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production held steady in April after a 0.7% in March. The 1.7% jump in utilities production and 0.8% increase in mining output offset the 0.4% decline in factory production. The 8.9% decline in auto output was the major reason for the flat headline. Excluding motor vehicle output, factory production rose 0.2% in April after a 0.3% gain in the prior month.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 13, 2011
Why Economic Growth is Dead / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Martenson
John Rolls Submits: The end of the second round of quantitative easing (QE II) is going to be a complete disaster for the paper markets -- specifically commodities, stocks, and then finally bonds, in that order, with losses of 20% to 50% by the end of October. The only thing that will arrest the plunge will be QE III, although we should remain alert to the likelihood that it will be named something else in an attempt to obscure what it really is. Perhaps it will be known as the "Muni Asset Trust Term Liquidity Facility" or the "American Prime Purchase Program," but whatever it is called, it will involve hundreds of billions of thin-air dollars being printed and dumped into the financial system.
Friday, May 13, 2011
U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Price Inflation, Jobless Claims Economic Worries / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Economic data published this morning contain bothersome aspects. Retail sales recorded the smallest monthly increase since July 2010, initial jobless claims remain at an elevated level, and wholesale prices moved up, inclusive of core prices which exclude food and energy.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Higher Oil Prices In March / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit widened to $48.18 billion in March from $45.44 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports (+4.6%) and imports (+4.9%) of goods and services advanced in March. In real terms, exports of goods grew 4.8%, while that of imports moved up 3.7%. Effectively, the real trade deficit of goods widened only slightly (%50.1 billion vs. $49.3 billion in February. For the first quarter, the real trade deficit of goods stands at $49.9 billion compared with $45.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The first quarter trade deficit is slightly smaller than the assumption included in the advance estimate of first quarter GDP, implying a small upward revision. The net impact on GDP will be determined by retail sales and inventories numbers to be published on May 12.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
U.S. Small Business Survey Highlights Continued Pessimism about Business Conditions / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 in April from 91.9 in the prior month. More importantly, fewer firms had plans to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months (21% vs. 24% in March) and the percentage of respondents indicating plans to increase payrolls held steady in April (2.0%).
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Sunday, May 08, 2011
U.S. Economy Endgame, Muddle Through or Debt Crisis? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here. Damn the torpedoes, etc. I must offer one large caveat! If the facts change so will my forecast, but this is the view into my very cloudy crystal ball as I see it today. As always, remember that those of us in the forecasting world are often wrong but seldom in doubt. Read accordingly.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economy Crippled / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
Something happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in growth. Then weekly jobless claims began printing four handles each week with today's 474,000 on top of last week's 429,000. The real kicker was Wednesday's ISM Services that registered a very sharp drop off and now sits precariously close to contraction.
Friday, May 06, 2011
U.S. Economic Data to Ponder About Before the April Employment Report / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The April employment report is scheduled for publication Friday, May 6. An increase of 190,000 payroll jobs and a steady reading for the unemployment rate (8.8%) is our forecast. The consensus forecast is an increase of 200,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate. Nonfarm payrolls increased 216,000 in March, with the private sector accounting for a gain of 230,000 jobs. Private sector hiring has risen at an impressive clip in the February-March period (average of 235,000 jobs). Against this backdrop, the jobless claims numbers for the week ended April 30 were unexpected. Initial jobless claims rose 43,000 to 474,000 and the prior week's estimate was raised to 431,000 from 429,000.
Thursday, May 05, 2011
ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Shows Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The ISM non-manufacturing survey results point to slowing conditions in the service sector of the economy in April. The composite index declined to 52.8 in April from 57.3 in March. This is the second monthly decline and the lowest since July 2010 (see Chart 1). The composite index is made up of four equally weighted components. Of the four components, supplier deliveries advanced in April (53.0 vs. 51.5), while indexes tracking new orders (52.7 vs. 64.1 in March), business activity (53.7 vs. 59.7 in March) and employment (51.9 vs. 53.7) declined.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Bin Laden's Death and U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, appeared on Bloomberg Television today with Willow Bay from the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, where he discussed the effect of Bin Laden's death on the markets as well as the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
U.S. Economy Faces Domestic Economic Headwinds / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
If you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far from over. The problems are far from being addressed. The solutions may be close but the leadership needed is no where near.
Week after week I may sound like a broken record. Like someone who has missed the bull run and trying to defend lost opportunity. At some point this market will turn. Those who said they will get out at or near the top will again be proven wrong. Their paper profits will turn into paper losses and they will argue they "cannot afford to sell." What has frustrated the bears will one day frustrate the bulls.
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Saturday, April 30, 2011
Has the Fed Decided to Fight Inflation Instead of Unemployment? / Economics / US Economy
By: Washingtons_Blog
William Alden writes in a Huffington Post liveblog entitled "Inflation Vs. Jobs":
Bernanke's argument about inflation isn't consistent, economist Paul Krugman says.
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Friday, April 29, 2011
Goolsbee on the Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth, Bernanke Concern Over S&P Rating / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Hans Nichols about today's report showing the U.S. economy slowed more than forecast in Q1. Goolsbee said about the S&P's judgment about the U.S.'s triple A rating was "a data point" and he also said that 2011 and 2011 are "still looking fairly positive" for economic growth. Goolsbee appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line."
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Hampson
It's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.
Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Many people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle. I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them. However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Whiff of Decelerating Trend in Second Tier U.S. Economic Reports / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The March employment report, including a 8.8% unemployment rate and a gain of 230,000 private sector jobs, set a bullish tone early in the month, but today's reports are sending a different message. Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 403,000 during the week ended April 16. The four-week moving average at 399,000 has moved up 391,000 posted four weeks ago.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
U.S. Factory Production Strong in March and the First Quarter / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production rose 0.8% during March, following more muted gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Factory production, which excludes output of the nation's utilities and mining sector, advanced 0.7% in March, following impressive gains of 0.8% and 0.6% in January and February, respectively. As a result of these strong monthly increases, factory production in the first quarter of 2011 moved up at an annual rate of 9.2%, the largest increase since 1997 (see Chart 4). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
U.S. March Small Business Survey is Disappointing, Trade Gap Temporary Narrowing / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.6 points to 91.9 from 94.5 in March. The details of the survey are disappointing following an encouraging March employment report of the nation. The composite index registered the second monthly decline in six months.
Saturday, April 02, 2011
How The Foreign Laundromat Trashed the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
I was looking at Vietnam recently. Apparently the streets are paved with gold and so I’m going over next week to check that out, but I’m getting more confused by the minute.
On one hand (supposedly) FDI is pouring into Vietnam, on the other hand, you read in the Financial Times that the Vietnamese are sending their gold jewellery to Switzerland to be melted down and turned into ingots to be stored in a vault (outside Vietnam). Or converted into a “hard” currency…although there again, there is a bit of a debate going on these days about where you might find one of those?
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