Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Am I A Bit Too Pessemistic on the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Matthew_Ehrlich
A Follow Up To ‘Us Economic Outlook Update’ - I have often said that the best way to truly learn and understand something is to try to teach it. That way, you have to deal with the questions that come from a wide variety of different views. Presenting an article, similarly evokes questions that make us dig deeper to better define or improve our explanation. Several comments I received to my article “U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end?” http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21778.html said that I was way too pessimistic and that real estate bubbles usually last only a few years. They also questioned weather housing or employment were key issues to the recession as opposed to financial institutions causing the whole mess. So, here is my deeper explanation of why I think that this time it’s different and the intertwined housing/employment relationship has dictated the outcome.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
ECRI Leading Economic Indicator Pointing to Double Dip Recession or Just Fine? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Co-founders, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continue to pour out statements about the ECRI WLI that are worth taking a close look at, if not outright challenging them.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Foreclosures and Mounting Unemployment, Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Barry_Grey
Reports released this week on initial applications for jobless benefits, bank seizures of foreclosed homes and retail sales all reflect a dramatic decline in US economic growth and growing social distress.
On Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time jobless claims rose by 2,000 last week to 484,000, the third weekly rise in the past month and the highest level in six months. As has been the case with virtually all US economic data in recent weeks, the figures defied the more optimistic forecasts of economists. They had predicted jobless filings would fall by 14,000.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
Innovation, What Made America Great is Now Killing Her! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical" - What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate. Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to. This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America. Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is. It is called Creative Destruction.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Jobs and Income, the Only Things That Matter… And No One Talks About / Economics / US Economy
By: Graham_Summers
Today, most pundits are growing increasingly concerned that we are headed for a “double dip” recession. I think this view is idiotic as the US “recovery” was in fact nothing more than a small bounce in economy activity within the context of a DEPRESSION.
Regardless, the stooges are out again in full force proclaiming that the US economy is in trouble again (duh), that the Stimulus high is wearing off (duh again) and that the only solution is to issue more Stimulus and money printing to stop another economic contraction (WHAT!?!).
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end? / Economics / US Economy
By: Matthew_Ehrlich
Living in Asia for most of the past ten years and having spent another twenty traveling between Wall Street and Asia, I am constantly being asked if the US economic downturn is finally over and if not, when it will end. Not an easy question and if you are going to even attempt to understand my answer, you have to look at some of the MECHANICS of how it started, how it grew, how we got to where we are now and the possible paths to bring about an end.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Fooled by Economic Stimulus, U.S. Economy Structural Problems Still Intact / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bill Watkins, a California Lutheran University professor, provides a nice summary on New Geography of the failure of various stimulus efforts to do anything meaningful in the wake of a collapse by Lehman, a collapse he says is a "regime shift".
Monday, August 09, 2010
U.S. Economy Between a Rock and a Hard Place Facing Dire Options / Economics / US Economy
By: Lorimer_Wilson
“The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire – either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold” said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:
Friday, August 06, 2010
Disappointing Jobs Report as U.S. Economy Fails to Respond to Massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Today’s disappointing payroll report reveals that the U.S. economy has failed to respond to the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli that have flooded the nation over the past two years. Not only is the news bad for job seekers and political incumbents, but it’s also a strong signal for traders to flee the U.S. dollar. The malaise in the U.S., where stimulus is still the word of the day, stands in contrast to active recoveries in Europe and Asia, where governments are actively removing stimulus. As a result, we are now headed for the eighth consecutive weekly decline in the Dollar Index.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
Why America Will Be the Next Banana Republic / Politics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The great American tradition of individualism, entrepreneurship and revolution is being systematically undermined by a cadre of financial strongmen bent on turning us into just another "banana republic" - where a subdued and apathetic population is subjugated by a ruling class of wealthy oligarchs.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Consumer Spending – Another Drag on the U.S. Economy! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Most of the time in American history it’s been a good thing that Americans love to spend, a good thing that consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Baby Boomer Dynamics, Housing, Jobs Creation, and the Falling Participation Rate / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Job estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.
Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
U.S. Corporate Hiring No Longer Improving; Americans Less Optimistic / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Corporate hiring has been in a weak but generally improving condition from January through June according to a Gallup Poll. That positive trend is now broken as noted in U.S. Job Creation Remains Level in July
Read full article... Read full article...Gallup's Job Creation Index finds job growth essentially unchanged for the third consecutive month, with a score of +7 in July -- about on par with +8 in June and +7 in May. Job market conditions are better now than they were during the financial crisis at this time a year ago (-2), but remain far below the already-recessionary levels found at this point in 2008 (+20).
Monday, August 02, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Report Points Slowing U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The July ISM manufacturing composite index slipped 0.7 points to a level of 55.5. This marks the third consecutive decline in this index (see Chart 1). Although the supplier deliveries and employment indexes increased marginally (by 1.0 and 0.8 points, respectively), the July composite index would have declined by significantly more if it had not been for the 4.4 point increase in the inventories index.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Will U.S. House Prices Drive The 4.8% “Consensus” Nominal GDP Growth Forecast? / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
I looked up the “consensus” for nominal US GDP growth in The Economist today; you have to add “real” to “CPI” to get the answer - I’m not interested in “real”, for me “real” is what they measure (nominal), and the un-reality starts when they subtract whatever weird and wonderful concoction of inflation is handed down by the Bureau of Labor.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
NAFTA Has Resulted in Increased U.S. Unemployment / Politics / US Economy
By: Global_Research
Mark Vorpahl writes: On July 7, 2010, President Obama made the following remarks:
We're also reforming our own restrictions on exports, consistent with our national security interests. And we hope to move forward on new agreements with some of our key partners. I've instructed U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk to begin discussions to help resolve outstanding issues with the pending Korean Free Trade Agreement before my visit to Korea in November. It's an agreement that will create new jobs and opportunity for people in both of our countries.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Hypocrite Geithner Says Private Sector Must Drive Economy / Politics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Like most politicians, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner likes to talk out of both sides of his mouth, generally saying contradictory things in sound bites that may sound reasonable at first glance, but look idiotic upon closer inspection.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
You can tell a lot about the state of the economy by simply looking at the covers of national news magazines. Or perhaps a better way of saying it is that you can get a good sense of how most Americans perceive the state of the economy by perusing the mainstream magazines.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bernanke is "Unusually Uncertain" - Is that an Improvement? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Bernanke Says Economic Outlook is "Unusually Uncertain", Fed Prepared for "Actions as Needed" I received this comment from "Economics Teacher".
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Savings Are a Lousy Excuse for America’s Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
Everyone who’s been paying attention knows by now that Americans consume too much and save too little. This is statistically true, but it has unfortunately become the basis of a mischievous lie about the cause of America’s monstrous trade deficits. That is, many orthodox economists have been claiming that our trade deficit is really a savings problem in disguise.