Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Bullish Small Business Optimism Index and Opposing Views from the Fed / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The NFIB survey results of small businesses for January 2011 point to an improved outlook. The composite index moved up to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in the prior month. The level of the composite index is close to the pre-recession reading of 94.4 in November 2007 (see Chart 1).
Saturday, February 05, 2011
The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Saturday, February 05, 2011
U.S. January Employment Report Suggests Continutation of Fed Easy Monetary Policy Stance / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The January employment report includes special factors, so the format of today's commentary is different from the procedure we follow for each month's employment report. The comment starts with a discussion of the special factors, followed by a conclusion, and ends with an analysis of customary details.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
The Economic “Recovery” in Consumer Loans Isn’t Real / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Bud Conrad, The Casey Report writes: The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
U.S. Real Statistical Economic Recovery, Bubble Complacency / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery
Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income?
A Bubble in Complacency
Egypt
This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week's letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
Why Consumer Spending Remains a Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Consumer spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was excellent, but the spending momentum failed to extend into the holiday shopping season. The retail sales excluding auto in December slipped to 0.5%, down from one percent in November and below the estimate of 0.6%. Spending remains problematic and will hamper growth.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
U.S. Durable Goods and Housing Home Sales Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Durable goods orders fell 2.5% in December, reflecting largely the impact of a significant drop in orders of civilian aircraft ($24 million vs. $5.019 billion in November). Excluding transportation, orders of durable goods moved up 0.5% in December vs. 4.5% gain in the prior month. Also orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.4% in December.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Soars in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 60.6 in January from 53.3 in December. The January reading is the highest since May 2010. The Present Situation Index (31 vs. 24.9 in December) and Expectations Index (80.3 vs. 72.3 in December) advanced in January.
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Sunday, January 23, 2011
U.S. Economic Turmoil in 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
Wall Street predicts blue skies. Economic recovery will continue. Stocks will deliver double-digit gains. On January 14, the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecast Survey headlined, "Economists Optimistic on Growth," expecting in 2011:
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tossing the U.S. Consumer Under the Bus And Insanely Expecting an Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: D_Sherman_Okst
I’ve been pouring through the Fed Reserve’s recent release of circa 2005 FOMC meeting transcripts. The most striking observation that one can make is that the consumer - the very lifeblood that determines whether our economy will live or die - has been discarded.
Discarded --- as in tossed under the bus.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
U.S. Economic Growth Recession Continues, QE2's Problems / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Long-time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the names Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. They are a regular feature here, as quite frankly, anything that Lacy writes or says I pay serious attention to. This is their regular quarterly report, where they outline seven things that are likely to retard US growth. An easy read, but take the time to think this through.
Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $4 billion under management, composed of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments, Taft-Hartley funds, and insurance companies.
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Friday, January 14, 2011
We Could be in Great Depression II – But We’re Not! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Global financial authorities proved to be quite adept at reacting quickly, step-by-panicked step, to the financial crisis as it unfolded, making hasty dramatic moves dreamed up on the fly in panicked weekend meetings.
That the efforts worked is obvious. We are not in Great Depression II.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Long Shadows Cast Over US Economy 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Numerous are the threats to the USEconomy and US financial structures. Many are hidden threats, subtle challenges to undermine increasingly fragile support systems, planks, and cables that hold the system together. The year 2011 will be when the system breaks in open visible fashion, when the explanations that justify it sound silly and baseless, when the entire bond world endures major crashes. All thing financial are inter-related. Recall that in summer 2007, the professor occupying the US Federal Reserve claimed the subprime mortgage crisis was isolated.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
U.S. and Global Economic Forecast 2011, Russia and the Roots of World Inflation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It is time once again to throw caution and wisdom to the wind and actually make my 11th annual forecast. I have to admit this is the most stressful letter I write each year. I do at least 5-10 times more research and thinking about this issue than any other. On a positive note, this may be one of the more optimistic forecast letters I have done in a long time. But there are some asterisks, as always. We will survey the world, trying to peer through the fog of the future. There are some very interesting side trails we will want to explore. Did you know some events in Russia could have real ramifications for inflation in China, the US, and the world? I pay attention to the background details and bring them to you. So settle back as we tour the world.
Friday, January 07, 2011
U.S. Real GDP vs. Potential GDP – Time to Assess this Yardstick / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The U.S economy has registered six quarters of economic growth, inclusive of the projected increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1).
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate Fed Sees "Slow Progress" Towards Full Employment / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In this regard, the minutes indicate that the FOMC sees "only a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment." A few participants held that an upside risk could emerge from a sharp growth in bank lending, given the easy monetary policy stance in place. At the same time, there was a great deal of concern about the housing market, particularly the large supply of unsold homes.
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Monday, December 27, 2010
The Ghost of Economic Future / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
What does the ghost of Christmas Future have to show us? What grave? What empty chair? What jokers at the funeral?
The end of the year approacheth. What do we know? What have we learned? Where have we come to?
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Tuesday, December 21, 2010
US Wealth Distribution, Where Zombies Go to Feast / Politics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
A warning… Bad stuff coming!
We’ve come to the warm latitudes for our Christmas holiday. Your editor didn’t really want to do so. He travels so much for business, he longed to stay home for Christmas. He imagined himself sitting in front of the fire…happily drinking eggnog and eating fruitcake. Or, cutting down trees and mending fences.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
The U.S. Economy is Recovering and Employment is Growing - WHO’S LYING? / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
Have you noticed the latest sound bites coming from the punditry in the corporate mainstream media? Here is the latest wisdom flowing from the lying mouthpieces of the ruling oligarchy (Wall Street, Washington DC, Mega-corporations):The economy is recovering and employment is growing.
Consumers are deleveraging, saving and using cash for purchases.
Retailers are doing fantastic as consumers increase spending.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
Inflation, Deflation and the U.S. Economy Year Ahead / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
The inflation versus deflation debate has raged for years but since the credit crisis the debate has become highly politicized. If the credit crisis taught us anything it is that the risk of deflation far outweighs that of inflation. Yet there is an entrenched view emerging in political circles that is actively opposed to the government’s attempts at re-inflating the economy following the deflationary collapse of 2008. Read full article... Read full article...