Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
U.S. Fourth Quarter Real GDP Economic Growth Upward Revision / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010, revised up from the prior estimate of a 2.8% increase. The U.S economy grew 2.9% in 2010 after a 2.6% decline in 2009. The outlook for 2011 is for a slightly stronger performance, with most of the growth representing self-sustained economic growth compared with artificial support that has maintained economic momentum in 2010 to a large extent.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
US Growth Expectations Neglect Weak Consumer Sector / Economics / US Economy
By: ECR_Research
Consensus on US growth this year is around 3.5%, and many economists and analysts expect the same growth rate, or a bit higher, the years thereafter. But where will this expected growth come from?
This is however the bright side of the medallion. There is, unfortunately, another side, which makes it really questionable how the US could possible attain a growth rate of 3.5% or higher for the coming years. There are several points to make.
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Thursday, March 24, 2011
Rumours of America's Economic Death Are Exaggerated: Credit Crunch Was a Blip / Economics / US Economy
By: Andrew_Butter
A good sign of impending economic death is when people stop lending money to you.
What’s strange is that in some quarters conventional wisdom has it that America is on death’s door with hyper-inflation just around the corner as a punishment for all the BAD money printing.
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Monday, March 21, 2011
American Jobs, Factories and Investment: The Picture is Grim / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
The Washington Post recently published a story revealing that if the hidden jobless were included in the unemployment rate it would jump to 10.5 per cent. (Hidden workforce challenges domestic economic recovery) This is a damning indictment of Obama's economic policies and Bernanke's monetary mismanagement. Even more damning is the fact that Obama appears completely unfazed by the situation. Now he did not create this recession any more than Bush created the 2000 recession -- irrespective of what America's utterly corrupt media assert -- but his policies are responsible for making it worse. To say that America is in an even more frightful mess than would otherwise be the case because of this man's dogmatic leftism and mindless hostility to free markets would be a severe understatement. However, recriminations -- no matter how well deserved -- will not alleviate the situation.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
FOMC Meeting 15th March: Fed More Bullish, Japan U.S. Trade Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, as expected and indicated it would continue its quantitative easing program of $600 billion. There were no dissents at the meeting, despite disagreements among members about the quantitative easing program that is underway, as revealed in the minutes of the January meeting and subsequent speeches of Fed Presidents.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
U.S. Economy on Steroids, Poverty Levels Equal to the 1930s / Economics / US Economy
By: Bob_Chapman
Wall Street at least temporarily relieved of the burden of having to buy Treasuries & Agency bonds, is looking at the jump in oil prices as nothing more than an irritant to their plans for a higher market. Bill Dudley of the NY Fed, a most powerful member, continues to make a vigorous defense of Federal Reserve policies. He, and a few other Fed participants, and Chairman Bernanke believe liquidity is the key for solving problems. That is not only in the realm of debt purchases, but in the relief it brings to Wall Street and banking. It relieves them of the responsibility of having to make those purchases to assist the Fed.
Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $46.3 billion in January from $40.3 billion in the prior month. Exports of goods and services advanced 2.7% in January, while imports of goods and services also grew 5.2%. Imports of both petroleum (+3.7%) and non-petroleum products (+4.2%) items rose in January. If this trend continues in February and March, the trade deficit would cutback real GDP growth noticeably.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
U.S. Households Net Worth Advances, Outstanding Debt Declines / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Household net worth rose to $56.82 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 3.9% increase from the third quarter (or $2.1 trillion increase). Net worth of household has risen 16.6% from the first quarter of 2009 (the recent low, see Chart 1). Households lost 26% of their net worth between the second quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2009, the largest loss in the post-war period. In the fourth quarter, households experienced gains in equity holdings that more than offset the loss from real estate.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
The Crude Oil Economic Booby Trap / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Whitney
Rising oil prices threaten to derail the recovery. Oil at $106 per barrel (Monday's price) is not a problem, but oil at $160 is. With fighting increasing in Libya and social unrest spreading across the Middle East, no one knows where prices will settle. That leaves Fed chairman Ben Bernanke with a tough decision. Should he call off QE2 prematurely and let the stock market drift sideways or go-til-June and hope for the best? If the Fed tightens too early, deflationary pressures will reemerge further straining bank balance sheets and consumer spending. Housing prices will fall sharply and foreclosures will mushroom. But if Bernanke holds-firm with his zero rates and bond buying program--especially when the ECB is raising rates--he could trigger a bond market rout and send the dollar into freefall.
Friday, March 04, 2011
Currency Revaluation Won’t Fix America’s Trade Mess / Politics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
It is sometimes suggested that our trade problems (job losses, international indebtedness) will go away on their own once currency values adjust. Bottom line? A declining dollar will eventually solve everything.
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011
Bernanke "Fed Prepared to Respond as Necessary" to Support Economic Recovery and Price Stability / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
A likely threat of inflation following the Fed's extraordinary monetary accommodation and rising commodity prices is the most discussed topic in recent days. Chairman Bernanke addressed concerns about inflation in lucid terms in his semi-annual testimony this morning. First, he noted that the "rate of pass-through from commodity price increases to broad indexes of U.S. consumer prices has been quite low in recent decades, partly reflecting the relatively small weight of materials inputs in total production as well as the stability of longer-term inflation expectations." Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
U.S. Manufacturing “Red Hot”? Dream On / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
There is an article in the Huffington Post today which, before apparently being retitled, asserted in its headline that U.S. manufacturing is now "red hot," and whose text quotes a financial analyst (apparently approvingly) who asserts that it is.This is based on a report from the respected Institute for Supply-Chain Management which reports that manufacturing output in the U.S. has expanded for 19 months straight.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
U.S. Government Proposed Spending Cuts and Current Energy Price Increases / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Effect on Total Economy-Wide Spending from a Cut in Government Spending
Suppose that the federal government cuts its current spending on goods and services. Assuming nothing is done to tax rates, this means that the government's current borrowing will fall commensurately. (This represents a shift in the demand curve for credit, not a movement along it.) All else the same, the interest rates, with the exception of the one-day federal funds rate, which is targeted by the Federal Reserve, will decline as the demand for credit declines.
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Tuesday, March 01, 2011
U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints, But Partly Weather-Related / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending fell 0.1% in January after a 0.3% increase in the prior month. Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3% but this strength was offset by declines in purchases of non-durables (-0.2% vs. +0.1% in December) and services (-0.1% vs. +0.2% in December).
Saturday, February 26, 2011
U.S. Real Growth GDP for Q4 2010 Revised Lower to 2.8% from 3.2% / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Downward revisions of consumer spending (4.1% vs. 4.4% advance estimate) and state & local government outlays (-2.4% vs. -0.9% advance estimate) were the two major sources of revisions accounting for the reduction in the pace of growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 2.8% from 3.2% in the advance estimate. In addition, spending on equipment and software and residential investment expenditures were reported to have advanced at a slower clip in the fourth quarter (see table below).
Friday, February 25, 2011
The Economic Recovery that Never Was / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
It is my belief that as the headlines continue to roll in about fiscal woes from sea to shining sea that we are going to get a full appreciation for the fraud that has been perpetrated on the American people in the form of the ‘economic recovery’ that the media has been stumping for since the middle of 2009. This ‘wag the dog’ type undertaking has been about confidence, perceptions, and little else. Absolutely, there are pockets of the nation where people have found work. After all, when your government dumps nearly a trillion dollars into the economy it is going to have SOME effect. Our goal from the beginning of these hyperstimulation maneuvers was to point out the unsustainability of this course of action and more importantly to predict the consequences thereof.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Moves Up, Largely From the Expectations Component / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 5.6 points to 70.4 in February, the highest reading in three years (see Chart 3). The Current Situation Index (33.4 vs.31.1 in January) and the Expectations Index (95.1 vs. 87.3 in January) both posted gains, with the latter climbing to the highest level since December 2006 (see Chart 4).
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Monday, February 21, 2011
Address Structural Economic Problems of Unemployment, Debt, and Inflation With Chicanery / Economics / US Economy
By: D_Sherman_Okst
Structural Economic Problem #1: Unemployment
Seventy percent of our economy is driven from private sector employment:
- Without consumers the economy is finished
- Without jobs and with maxed out debt loads the consumer is finished
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Fed Upgrades U.S. GDP Growth Forecast, Remains Significantly Concerned About Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting show the Fed more optimistic about economic growth in 2011. The Fed raised the central tendency for real GDP growth in 2011 to 3.4% - 3.9% from the November forecast of 3.0% to 3.6% (see Table 1). The revisions to projections of economic growth in 2012 and 2013 were small compared with the revision of estimates for 2011.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Widening of U.S. Trade Deficit Partly Reflects Jump in Oil Imports / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. economy widened to $40.6 billion in December from $38.3 billion in the prior month. Exports (+1.8%) and imports (+2.6%) of goods and services advanced in December. Petroleum imports (+12.2% in real terms) made up a large part of imports in December.Read full article... Read full article...