Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, March 01, 2012
Get the Dire Economic Stats You Won't Get from 24-Hour News / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Dear Investor,
Are you shocked that even with a 24-hour news cycle, crucial bits of economic news still fall through the cracks?
The financial media only seem to regurgitate the same, tired bullish proclamations about the year ahead. It will be better than 2011, they say, but the numbers don't lie. By some revealing measures, the economy is actually worse now than it was at the end of 2010.
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Monday, February 27, 2012
U.S. Economy Extend and Pretend is Coming To An End / Politics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
The real world revolves around cash flow. Families across the land understand this basic concept. Cash flows in from wages, investments and these days from the government. Cash flows out for food, gasoline, utilities, cable, cell phones, real estate taxes, income taxes, payroll taxes, clothing, mortgage payments, car payments, insurance payments, medical bills, auto repairs, home repairs, appliances, electronic gadgets, education, alcohol (necessary in this economy) and a countless other everyday expenses. If the outflow exceeds the inflow a family may be able to fund the deficit with credit cards for awhile, but ultimately running a cash flow deficit will result in debt default and loss of your home and assets. Ask the millions of Americans that have experienced this exact outcome since 2008 if you believe this is only a theoretical exercise. The Federal government, Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, regulatory agencies and commercial real estate debtors have colluded since 2008 to pretend cash flow doesn’t matter. Their plan has been to “extend and pretend”, praying for an economic recovery that would save them from their greedy and foolish risk taking during the 2003 – 2007 Caligula-like debauchery.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Can the U.S. Economy Sidestep Europe’s Recession? / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The surprises continue in the U.S. economic recovery.
This week’s reports include that home prices rose 0.7% in December, an encouraging ending to a year in which prices were down another 2.4% for the full year. And existing home sales rose 4.3% in January. Even more surprising, the inventory of unsold homes has now fallen to its lowest level since March, 2005.
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Saturday, February 18, 2012
Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
Taking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words if the income statement says a company generated a profit well the cash flow will be there.
In the case of US economic data the closest thing we have is monthly tax receipts. I will be digging more into this data in the coming weeks and months to get a better sense just how well the economy is doing. For now I wanted to share an analysis based purely on tax receipts.
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012
January U.S. Retail Sales Decelerating Trend Remains in Place / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Retail sales increased 0.4% in January after a steady reading in December. The December estimate was revised down slightly from the earlier reading of 0.1%. In January, auto purchases in the retail sales report show a 1.1% decline, while unit auto sales increased to an annual rate of 14.2 million units in January vs. 13.6 million units in December. Unit auto sales matter in the computation of consumer spending. Gasoline sales rose 1.4% in January, a price related gain.
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Tuesday, February 14, 2012
U.S. Trade Deficit Data Belies Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street is extolling the virtues of our rising U.S. trade deficit as a sure sign the economy is well on the road to a full and viable recovery. It was reported last week that our level of trade imbalance jumped to a six-month high in December to $48.8 billion (up 3.7%), from $47.1 billion in the prior month. For all of 2011, the shortfall grew 12% to $558 billion, the most since 2008.
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Sunday, February 12, 2012
US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade deficit. The December trade deficit increased to $48.8 billion from $47 billion in November. Although this report will have a slight negative impact on Q4 GDP there is something possibly more telling about the trajectory of the US economy.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
After the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?
Friday, February 10, 2012
Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Consumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.
Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.
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Friday, February 10, 2012
U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street.
You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency. During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market. Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks!
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises
Sunday, February 05, 2012
U.S. ISM Economic Data Cracks Beneath The Surface / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January.
ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below).
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Friday, February 03, 2012
U.S. Jobs, El-Erian U.S. Structural Issues Aren't Being Dealt With / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Scarlet Fu and Dominic Chu this morning about today's jobs report and the global economy.
On jobs, El-Erian said that "let's not also forget the numbers outside these headlines...we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with."
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
U.S. Real Consumer Spending Falls in December / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending slipped 0.1% in December after postings in October and November. All major components – durable goods (-0.1%), nondurables (-0.1%) and services (-0.1%) – fell in December and trimmed the pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
U.S. Economy Waist Deep in the Big Muddy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road map for economists and investors to follow. The signposts are easily understood: the Fed will stop at nothing in pursuing its goals of creating phantom GDP growth, holding down unemployment, propping up stock and housing prices, and monetizing government debt. To do so, it will continue to pursue a policy of negative interest rates, while ignoring the collateral damage of unsustainable debt, virulent inflation, misallocated resources and credit, suffering yield-dependent retirees, and a devalued U.S. currency.
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Friday, January 20, 2012
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims and Housing Starts All Favourable Aspects / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December, after posting a similar reading in November. The energy price index inched down 1.3% in December, marking the third consecutive decline. The recent increase in oil prices should be reflected in the January CPI report. The food price index increased 0.2% in December putting the year-to-year gain at 4.7% vs. 1.5% in all of 2010. The energy price index moved up 6.6% in 2011 compared with a 7.7% jump in 2010. The 3.0% increase in the overall CPI in 2011 reflects these gains as well as an acceleration of the core CPI, which excludes food and energy.
Friday, January 20, 2012
Fed’s Beige Book Paints a Rosier U.S. Economic Picture as Employment Improves / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank released its latest Beige Book on Wednesday, January 11th. In it, U.S. central bank officials included in the survey indicated that U.S. economic conditions in their respective regions seemed to have improved somewhat in December of 2011 compared with conditions observed the previous month.
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
Economic Reports Underscore More Positives of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Today’s economic reports present a bullish picture of the U.S economy. Industrial production in December was strong and optimism of homebuilders improved in January, while wholesale prices fell.
Industrial production rose 0.4% in December after declining 0.3% during November. The 0.9% jump in factory production, which accounts for the bulk of total industrial production, stands out in today’s report after a 0.4% drop in November. Factory production rose at an annual rate of 3.9% in the fourth quarter vs. a 5.00% increase in third quarter that represents a rebound from the Japan disaster. Production of factory goods was widespread in December with wood products, primary metals, computers, machinery, motor vehicles, and aerospace equipment posting noticeable gains.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
U.S. Economy GDP Forecasts 2012 and Recession Odds / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short. On Friday of next week (January 27th) we’ll get the Advance Estimate for Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal’s January Survey of economists is now available. Let’s see what their crystal ball is telling them about Q4 GDP (download Excel File).
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Declining Trend of US Exports Warrants Close Watching / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The trade deficit of the U.S. widened to $47.75 billion in November from $43.27 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports of goods and services have dropped for two consecutive months, while exports of goods adjusted for fell 1.5% in November after posting gains in each of the two prior months. Imports of goods and services also advanced in November. The October-November data imply that a widening of the trade deficit in the fourth quarter is a negative for GDP growth.