Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, June 24, 2019
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence / Politics / AI
By: N_Walayat
Every search we do feeds the Google AI with more and more data about who we really are and thus how to predict our actions under a wide variety of circumstances. Throw into the mix Google's continuing expansion into every aspect of our lives coupled with the exponential growth in processing power then we are perhaps no more than a year or so away when Google's AI will surpass that which even the smartest of humans are able to understand what it's getting up to with potentially dire consequences for mankind unless we try to keep pace with the machine intelligence by upgrading ourselves both mentally and physically which is the focus of this video.
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Sunday, June 23, 2019
Trump Clueless On Trade Tariffs / Politics / Protectionism
By: Steve_H_Hanke
President Trump doesn’t like U.S. trade deficits. He also doesn’t like migrants flowing into the U.S. from south of the border. His tariffs and tariff threats are slowing trade and world economic growth. And this will, in turn, increase the migrant flows into the United States. After all, as foreign economic activity slows, and more foreigners are either thrown out of work or find their incomes drying up, they will be motivated to migrate. Trump remains clueless as to why tariffs fuel migration.
But, that’s not Trump’s only international trade blind spot. He and his cabinet think that U.S. trade deficits are a problem, and that they are caused by foreign countries that manipulate their currencies and engage in unfair trade practices. These ideas are wrongheaded.
These misguided ideas have plagued other administrations—even those lead by free-market presidents, like Ronald Reagan. Indeed, I spent many days, while at Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, trying to defend the President’s free-trade ideas. But, at the end of the day, the free-trader faction, which was led by the likes of Reagan himself, lost the war. The protectionists who harbored exactly the same wrongheaded ideas as Trump rolled us.
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Saturday, June 22, 2019
Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran / Politics / US Military
By: Raul_I_Meijer
As a nation, you’re certifiedly (is that a word?!) in deep trouble if and when Donald Trump is your most peaceloving man. But nevertheless, that is America today. It all harks back to the days when Trump was first -grudgingly and painstakingly- recognized as an actual presidential candidate.
He campaigned as a man who would end the costly and neverending decades-old and counting US wars far away from American shores and territory. He hasn’t lived up to those campaign goals at all, far from it, and he hired doofuses like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to show everyone that he didn’t, but in the early hours of June 21 2019 he apparently decided at the last minute that it just didn’t add up.
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
We’re All Socialists Now / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Despite being probably robbed of the Democratic Party’s nomination by the Clinton political machine, the success of the Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign with his advocacy of “democratic socialism” was an ominous sign of things to come and, in some sense, more telling of the political climate than Donald Trump’s improbable victory in November, 2016. The millions of votes garnered by Sanders in the Democratic primaries has emboldened other socialists to seek political office while socialist ideas are openly spoken of with little fear of political recriminations.
Sanders has doubled down on his advocacy of democratic socialism in a recent speech at George Washington University, calling for the completion of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal of the 1930s:
Today I am proposing we complete the unfinished work of Franklin Roosevelt and the Democratic Party by putting forth a 21st century economic bill of rights.*
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Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Will Inflation “Save” Social Security? / Politics / Government Spending
By: MoneyMetals
Uncle Sam is going broke. That’s not exactly news – at least not to anyone who has been paying attention to the sorry state of federal finances.
Yet to most Americans, the ballooning national debt ($22.3 trillion and counting) isn’t a problem that impacts their daily lives. They won’t directly perceive the cost of another trillion dollars in borrowing in the government’s next fiscal year.
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Monday, June 17, 2019
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? / Politics / UK Politics
By: Submissions
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Monday, June 17, 2019
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading
Sunday, June 16, 2019
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.
The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'
Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.
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Friday, June 14, 2019
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The tory leadership contest is converging towards the ultimate grudge match of Boris Johnson who should have won the 2016 leadership campaign vs Michael Gove who should have backed Boris Johnson in 2016 but instead chose to stab him in the back by standing himself for leader just a few hours before Boris was set to announce his candidature for next tory leader.
We'll now 3 years on Boris has learned his lessons and thus had deployed a slick campaign to convince MP's and Tory party members to finally back him for their next leader and thus the next British Prime Minister as the results of MP's voting in the first round illustrates:
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Thursday, June 13, 2019
IRAN - The Next American War / Politics / US Military
By: Submissions
The hand on the trigger: How an American president wantonly prepares the next war
The great world powers slipped into World War I without really wanting it. But they had been arming themselves for years, so all that was needed was but a spark – such as the assassination of the Austrian heir to the throne – to detonate a powder keg filled to the rim.
A lot of explosives had accumulated
not only in the arsenals of the military, but in the hearts of the people. In the first moment of the declaration of war, many people throughout Europe were seen to be overwhelmed by enthusiasm. “… the war of 1914… was still serving a delusion, the dream of a better world, a world that would be just and peaceful… That was why the victims went to the slaughter drunk and rejoicing, crowned with flowers and wearing oak leaves on their helmets, while the streets echoed with cheering and blazed with light, as if it were a festival”(Stefan Zweig).
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Thursday, June 13, 2019
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.
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Monday, June 10, 2019
Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast / Politics / Gambling
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.
Thursday, June 06, 2019
Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betting Markets / Politics / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Is Trump Reversing Course On Iran? / Politics / Iran
By: OilPrice_Com
The Trump administration is attempting to dial down the tension with Iran, lowering the risk of military conflict and pushing for diplomatic negotiations.
On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the U.S. was ready to negotiate with Iran with “no preconditions,” a shift in strategy after laying out a list of 12 hardline demands last year, a list that seemed to be a set of preconditions. Meanwhile, last week, President Trump stated that he was not seeking regime change in Iran, contradicting his national security adviser, John Bolton, who has repeatedly advocated for toppling the regime in Tehran.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Democrats Double Down on Trump Show Trial / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
A majority of the public by now is sick of the witch hunt. Just imagine the fatigue and revolting sentiments that ordinary Americans have for the elitists and brainwashed libtards that want to impeach President Trump. Interminable Congressional hearings with no reasonable chance for Senate removal from office are in itself an abuse of legislative provocative. The William Jefferson Clinton impeachment demonstrated that a Republican Senate had a prearranged agreement to acquit before the trial began. If two-thirds of Senators could be mustered to convict, the RINO Republicans would need to demonstrate they are closet NeoCons.
The show trial that the establishment 'Never Trumpers' would more likely be one of continued trashing by committees and endless media presstitute reporting. The Show Trials in the USSR had the purpose of protecting Stalin. The Marxist Democrats are the Amerika version of Bolshevism. Their aim is to maintain the Deep State in power. Maintaining the totalitarian culture of collectivism by systematically destroying our Constitutional Republic has reached a point of no return.
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Monday, June 03, 2019
UKIP Racists Infiltrating Brexit Party Will Kill it Electorally as they did UKIP / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UKIP is DEAD! Electorally speaking as first the local election results and then the European Elections showed a total collapse of their vote to just 4%, losing all 24 of their MEP's as Gerard Battens embrace of the likes of Tommy "Fake Name" Robinson killed the party. Whilst TR himself only managed to scrape the bottom of the barrel with just 2% of the vote in the North West region. Basically UKIP and TR only got the perma BNP vote.
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Friday, May 31, 2019
The Bankers’ “Power Revolution”: How the Government Got Shackled by Debt / Politics / Banksters
By: Ellen_Brown
This article is excerpted from my new book Banking on the People: Democratizing Money in the Digital Age, available in paperback June 1.
The U.S. federal debt has more than doubled since the 2008 financial crisis, shooting up from $9.4 trillion in mid-2008 to over $22 trillion in April 2019. The debt is never paid off. The government just keeps paying the interest on it, and interest rates are rising.
In 2018, the Fed announced plans to raise rates by 2020 to “normal” levels — a fed funds target of 3.375 percent — and to sell about $1.5 trillion in federal securities at the rate of $50 billion monthly, further growing the mountain of federal debt on the market. When the Fed holds government securities, it returns the interest to the government after deducting its costs; but the private buyers of these securities will be pocketing the interest, adding to the taxpayers’ bill.
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Monday, May 27, 2019
War and Young Americans / Politics / US Military
By: Raul_I_Meijer
So we’re going to do this all over again? Well, not if I can help it. Not that I have much hope that I can, mind you. As the bastions of war chime on, my voice, like so many others, will be drowned out. The military industrial complex knows how to do propaganda, better than anyone. But I’ll try.
Vietnam gave the US its biggest ever defeat, both militarily and morally, and yet mere years after its deeply humiliating withdrawal was put into action, the country was back at sending its promising young boys and girls not to its school systems, but to far away battle fields to be crippled, traumatized and slaughtered.
I know, I know, the UK and France do that too, but few other places do. Russia today uses its troops to defend its territory, China has yet to reveal its intentions. But the intentions of the US have been known ever since WWII ended.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Brexit Party Forces Theresa May to Resign, Boris Johnson Next Tory Prime Minister? / Politics / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
When the European election results are announced Sunday, Nigel Farage's Brexit party looks set to win as many as 30 of the 73 seats whilst the Tory party under Theresa May are set to suffer an electoral bloodbath by winning as few as 6 seats, which would be harbinger for a disastrous outcome at the next General Election. Thus the Tory party had little choice in finally forcing an inept and crippled Prime Minister Theresa May to resign Friday, ending what amounts to a miserable 3 years that not only failed to achieve Brexit but that the past 3 years had failed to achieve anything of substance as contrary to some of the mainstream press commentary Theresa May was NO Margaret Thatcher, not coming anywhere close, who instead is probably the worst British Prime Minister in living memory.
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Thursday, May 23, 2019
Trump's futile quest for a renminbi Plaza Accord / Politics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recent US media reports claim China may depreciate its renminbi to cope with shrinking exports. Yet, economic realities are precisely the reverse. Worse, trade wars are about to hit American consumers. Recently, the White House lifted tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, while targeting another $300 billion worth of Chinese imports for potential punitive tariffs.
As was to be expected, the renminbi depreciated from 6.7 to more than 6.9 against the US dollar, mainly on renewed trade tensions.
China retaliated by imposing duties on $60 billion of US goods, starting June 1. China could have retaliated hard, but opted for a mild response that highlights the importance of talks.
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