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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Betting on Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Markets Forecast

Politics / Gambling Jun 10, 2019 - 06:41 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The worst Prime Minister in British History who has literally clung onto power by her finger tips for the past 6 months is set to resign as Tory party leader tomorrow, Friday 7th of June in the wake of the disaster that were the EU elections, which will mark the start for a 6 week long tory leadership contest with the objective of whittling down a wide field of 11 candidates to just 2 from whom the 100,000 or so tory party members will vote to choose to become the next Tory Leader and thus British Prime Minister set to take office late July as Britain counts down to the 31st October 2019 deadline. A deadline that most candidates have already declared they will seek to extend as a remainer parliament continues to do its utmost to subvert Brexit by taking a NO DEAL Brexit off the table and thus wasted the last 3 years instead of just declaring Independence as I concluded several years ago is what Britain should do to win the Brexit War.


First a reminder of the disaster that was the 23rd of May EU elections for Britain's ruling establishment that was delivered a very bloody nose, even worse than the mainstream establishment press had been expecting that the REMAIN parties would do far better than the LEAVE parties with Brexit party typically expected to win 24 seats i.e. similar to that of UKIP total in 2014.

  • Brexit Party 29
  • Lib Dems 16
  • Labour 10
  • Conservatives 4
  • Green 7
  • Change 0
  • SNP 3
  • UKIP 0
  • Plaid Cymru 1

Brexit Party Victory!

The Brexit party stormed the elections by far winning the most seats by ending the night on 29 seats, near twice the total of their nearest rival. And is a harbinger for what to expect in a future general election where the Tories would pay a very heavy price.

Lib-Dems Capitalise on Remain vote

The Lib-Dems as the self prophesied party of REMAIN hoovered up millions of Labour and the Tory remain voters to end the night on 16 seats, near HALF that of the Brexit Party

Labour Blood Bath

The party suffered an humiliating defeat by losing 10 seats to end the night on just 10 seats.

Conservatives Destroyed

Whilst Labour suffered a bloodbath, the Tories were all but destroyed! Losing 15 seats to end the night on just 4! The worst collapse in the Tory parties vote in history since they were founded in 1832!

Green Party Climate Change Boom

The Green party finally broke out of the fringe and into the mainstream as Climate change fears are clearing gathering momentum amongst the electorate as the Greens gained 5 seats to end the night on 7.

UKIP and Tommy Robinson Death Embrace

UKIP paid the price for Leader Battens embrace of far right nut job Tommy Robinson that all but killed the party off losing ALL of its 24 seats to end the night on ZERO! Meanwhile Tommy Robinson failed to capitalise on his milkshakes where all the huffing and puffing resulted in a big fat electoral zero, scraping the bottom of the barrel with just 2% of the vote in the North West of England even losing his deposit which I am sure his gullible disciples have more than covered in donations perhaps ending the election with a decent profit ££££.

ChangeUK

And lastly Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry's Change UK was still born, despite widespread unwarranted mainstream media exposure failed to register at all on the electoral richter scale. Some 2 weeks on it is already disintegrating soon set disappear into the political wilderness, never to be heard of again as it's failed politicians attempt to jump on board the likes of the Lib Dems and Greens.

Which just acted as further confirmation of my long-standing expectations that the most probable next leader and British Prime Minister would be Boris Johnson as I voiced when Theresa May announced she would be resigning.

Brexit Party Forces Theresa May to Resign, Boris Johnson Next Tory Prime Minister?

This analysis was first being made Patrons who support my work. Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Betting Markets

So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Next Tory Leader Betting Markets (Betfair)

Firstly remember when betting you are GAMBLING so bare that in mind when placing BETS, and where the Tory leadership race is concerned with a near dozen candidates throwing their hats into the ring then there still remains a wide field as we countdown to Theresa May's last few hours as Tory leader, though most of whom of course are just positioning themselves for a seat in a future cabinet rather than having any real hopes of becoming the next Tory leader and PM.

My first opening shot at who could be next Tory leader and thus PM was on 18th November 2018 - Next Tory Leader, Prime Minister Forecast and Betting Market Odds

The Betfair market was offering the following odds for prospective contenders.

18th Nov - 4am

Where the conclusion of my analysis was to expect either Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris Johnson as the most probable successors from an fairly evenly spread field.

With the odds narrowing in favour of 3 candidates by time of my December 12th analysis. Theresa May No Confidence Vote, Next Tory Leader Betting Market Analysis and Forecasts

At which point I concluded Boris Johnson was most probably likely to win a Leadership contest whenever the tory party was able to pry Theresa May's hands from the door of No 10. And thus the betting markets were continuing to offer excellent odds of 5+ ! That's a win of £400 for every £100 bet (plus stake)! Maybe not as goods as with Trump but definitely worth a gamble!

Therefore my analysis and now the betting markets continue to imply that Boris Johnson is most probable to become Britain's next Prime Minister in the countdown to a probable NO DEAL BREXIT.

Which has remained my position since, as December turned into January and so on all the way to the end of May! Theresa May, Britain's worst Prime Minister ever, inflicting huge damage to the nation that she professes to love! Finally gets the message following the dreadful EU election results and announces that she would be stepping down as Tory leader on the 7th of June 2019.

The betting market odds further narrowed in Boris Johnson favour when I last looked at the Betfair market on the 27th of May 2019.

By then Boris Johnson was the clear leader in what was still a 3 horse race where now a £100 bet would get you a potential £198 profit! Whilst now the mainstream media mantra had shifted from Boris Johnson having no chance to that the Tories never elect the favourite to become their next leader which has largely been the mantra since.

That brings us to the present. These are the latest Betfair prices for the Tory leadership contest .

The Betting markets have finally woken up to the fact that Boris Johnson IS the most probable person to win the Tory Leadership contest and thus the odds have further significantly narrowed over a short space of time where today a £100 bet would convert into a £84 profit.

Furthermore, ALL those who took my betting market conclusion of 12th of December and since would be sitting on a huge open profit which if they choose to could cash in ahead of the final outcome! And as it becomes more and more obvious to most that Boris Johnson looks set to win the Tory leadership then then the odds on Boris Johnson will keep narrowing. After all what's the risk when it becomes a near certainty?

Just remember we are GAMBLING and whilst so far Boris Johnson has managed to surprise even me by keeping his gob shut by not putting his foot in his mouth, still with 6 weeks to go there are plenty of opportunities for Boris Johnson to run his mouth by saying the wrong thing that implies to expect market volatility, i.e. the Betfair Boris Johnson price could range anywhere between 1.4 and 3 over the next 6 weeks, so you 'may' get more opportunities to BET at better prices on who I concluded some 6 months ago would be the next Tory leader.

Meanwhile in about 5 hours time (around 2am UK time time) we will likely see the first Brexit Party candidate elected to Parliament at the Peterborough by-election (formerly a Labour seat) which we will likely see a further narrowing in the odds in favour of Boris Johnson as the candidate most likely to be able see off the existential threat that the Brexit Party poses to the Tory party as the by election will likely see a collapse in the Tory vote.

The bottom line is that Boris Johnson has had 3 years to learn lessons from his shambolic campaign to succeed David Cameron in 2016 that ended with Michael Gove stabbing him in the back. Which means regardless of clueless mainstream press utterances over the coming weeks. Boris Johnson IS the most probable next Leader of the Tory party as he has promised that DEAL or NO DEAL the UK WILL LEAVE the EU on the 31st of October 2019. Anyway at this point in time it does not matter whether he is actually able to achieve his promise or not as it is not relevant to this BET.

Disclaimer - I bet on Boris to be the next Tory Leader.

This analysis was first being made Patrons who support my work. Next British Prime Minister Tory Leadership Betfair Betting Markets

So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

June Scheduled Analysis :

  • Silver Price Trend Analysis
  • China Stock Market SSEC
  • UK Housing market series
  • Stock Market Trend Forecast June 2019 Update
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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