Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
UK House Prices continue to Rise whilst the US Housing Market Slumps / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK housing market has proved remarkably resilient by notching up a further gain for January of 1.3% (Halifax) , whilst the US Housing market continues to go from bad to worse as the sub prime mortgages time bomb goes off, resulting in a slump that looks set to be the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930's.
The key to the strength of the UK housing market has been the fact that UK house prices have yet to reach the excesses of the early 1990's, in terms of House Price to Earnings to Interest rates ratio. Traditionally, average earnings and house prices have been taken together to produce an affordability ratio, this ratio has clearly in recent years shown itself to be flawed, as UK house prices have not fallen, because this measure has ignored historically low interest rates as a function of earnings and house prices, and therefore a more accurate indicator needs to include interest rates.
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Saturday, February 24, 2007
US Housing Market Cracks Extend to Major Banks / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Words from older European sage economists are as welcome to the mainstream financial circles as welcome as leisure suits and hot pants are to the fashion set, as eight track tape sets are to the home music systems, as old Model T Fords are to the classic car vogue (see the Chevy Powerglide).
Yet the wisdom of economist teachings from Old Europe has never lost its meaning. Almost half a century ago, Rothbard warned of booms and busts, noting the inevitability of a dissipated bubble whose occurrence is assured like night follows day. Advising against bubbles is so passé these years. Try telling a PhD Economist from a top US university of the dangers from excessive monetary inflation, the attendant risks for making asset bubbles, and (s)he will think you are crazy. On a couple of occasions, such has been my pleasure and disconcerting experience.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Housing Market Subprime Mortgages Timebomb waiting to Explode / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Michael_K_Dawson
Remember when a 20% down payment was expected when purchasing a house. Sometimes with stellar credit and maybe a special situation, like a first-time home buyer, you could get in with a 10% down payment. I recall a few weeks after my wife and I purchased our first home - both cars broke down.
Saving for your first home is one of the few times, from a financial perspective, that both husband and wife are clearly on the same page. Everything takes a back seat to saving for that down payment - shoe shopping, night out with the boys, everything. That's exactly why both of our cars broke down. We had neglected maintaining the cars and everything else while saving for our down payment.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
US Housing Market Subprime Mortgage debacle unfolding as expected ! / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Virtually every single prediction I made about the subprime mortgage industry over the past year is coming true. In a moment, I'll tell you what this means to you if you're buying or selling a home, or even just looking at investments in the housing and mortgage markets.
But first, I'd like to tell you how things have been unfolding ...
In June 2006, I said: “Real estate is already starting to fall apart all around us ... Prices on a wide variety of properties are going to fall in vast swaths of the U.S. ... Defaults and foreclosures are going to skyrocket.”
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Saturday, February 10, 2007
US housing market - Subprime lending sector spiraling south ! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
ContiFinancial ... EquiCredit ... The Money Store ... Southern Pacific Funding. Maybe you've never heard of them, but they were the subprime mortgage lending stars of the mid-to-late 1990s.
They specialized in making loans to borrowers with bad credit, little or no down payments, and a host of other problems. Once they made loans, they'd sell them off to Wall Street firms and other investors, who would help package them together into bonds — a process known as “securitization.” The subprime lenders would use the proceeds to make additional mortgages, and the process would start all over again.
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Friday, February 09, 2007
REITS signaling a bottom in the US Housing / Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Clif_Droke
One of the inescapable conclusions one comes to after a long-term study of history is that current events and financial markets is very little happens without a pre-ordained reason. This statement is especially true when applied to the financial markets. With literally trillions of dollars in money and credit floating around the world, there is simply too much at stake to allow the natural forces of chance and coincidence to interfere with the plans and dealings of the world's financial controllers.
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Greenspans Cheap Money role in the US Housing Crash of 2007 / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
The American people appear to be oblivious to the economic hurricane which is expected to touchdown in late 2007. That's when $1 trillion in ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) will “reset” triggering a massive increase in foreclosures and plunging the country into a deep recession. If energy costs continue to rise at the same time or if the dollar loses more ground, we may be rooting around in the backyard garden-plot looking for passed-over spuds and radishes.
“The Fed, in effect, has become a serial bubble blower.” Stephen Roach, chief economist, Morgan Stanley
“This is the biggest housing slump in the last 4 or 5 decades: every housing indicator is in free fall, including now housing prices.” Economist Roubini Nouriel, Dow Jones, 23 August 2006
Sunday, February 04, 2007
US Housing Market- The Mother of All Bubbles / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
The Fed should have tightened earlier to avoid a festering of the housing bubble early on. The Fed is facing a nightmare now: the recession will come and easing will not prevent it.” Nouriel Roubini, “Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady as Slowdown Outweighs Inflation”, Wall Street JournalI'm really baffled by the e-mails I've been getting lately. A lot people have been blasting my predictions that the housing bubble will burst in 2007 and trigger a deep and painful recession. They point to the Commerce Dept's recent report that “new home sales rose 4.8% in December after 7.4% increase in November.”
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Thursday, February 01, 2007
US Housing Bubble Bloodbath - The Property Crash Continues / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Mike_Whitney
“The crash of the housing bubble will not be pretty. Millions of people stand to lose their homes and life savings. However, it was inevitable. The bubble created a fantasy world that could not continue. At the peak of the bubble, 160,000 people a week were buying a home, most at bubble inflated prices. The longer the bubble persists, the larger the group of people who paid way too much for their home. While it is not good that so many dreams had to be ruined, the number will be even larger if the bubble deflates slowly. So I make no apologies about hoping for the hasty demise of the bubble.”
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Sunday, January 28, 2007
US Housing Slump Continues - Boom Bust Cycle - Silicon Valley Housing Market Report / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jas_Jain
In this report you will see facts, based on the available data, that you will not find anywhere else. Vast majority of economists and statisticians who prepare housing reports are "professionals" that get paid to talk up the game. This is a NO BULL! report. The purpose of this report is to not only present the facts but also a commentary on the mindset of people who live there. Just to give you some flavor of the facts, how many people know the following (all home prices are median price)?
Price change, during Apr'00-Dec'06 (80 months), for all homes sold in Santa Clara County = 35%.
Price change, during Apr'00-Dec'06, for all homes sold in Los Angeles County = 165%.
Price change, during Apr'00-Dec'06, of the US Treasury STRIPS in my IRA account = 70%.
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Friday, January 12, 2007
US housing market - Subprime lending sector spiraling south ! / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
ContiFinancial ... EquiCredit ... The Money Store ... Southern Pacific Funding. Maybe you've never heard of them, but they were the subprime mortgage lending stars of the mid-to-late 1990s.
They specialized in making loans to borrowers with bad credit, little or no down payments, and a host of other problems. Once they made loans, they'd sell them off to Wall Street firms and other investors, who would help package them together into bonds — a process known as “securitization.” The subprime lenders would use the proceeds to make additional mortgages, and the process would start all over again.
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Sunday, December 31, 2006
UK Housing market forecast for 2007 / Housing-Market / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Early in 2006 we reiterated the overbought state of the UK housing market and how it was ripe for a decline. But the decline failed to materialise, as an early slowdown failed to go negative, with the market starting to trend higher again later in the year. Despite two rate rises, the housing growth has accelerated going into the end of 2006 to an annualised rate of over 8%.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Has the US Housing Market Bottomed ? Data and Fifth Grade Maths Says NO ! / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jas_Jain
Act I. Scene - a fifth grade math class in a small farm town in MO.
'Good morning class.'
'Good morning, Mr. Scambuster.'
'What state we are in and what are we known for, Freckles?'
'Why, Missouri, sir. When shrills trained at Serve-the-Crooks League that you told us about try to tell us that this is so and that is so we turn around and ask, 'Show Me, buster.'
'Class, today we will learn how to apply the arithmetic that you have learned to the real world problems. Remember, when we took a field trip to the city and we saw lots of homes and condos going up everywhere? Remember, Tommy pointing to us that his uncle Kirk was building some of those homes? I also explained to you the process of getting permits to build homes, etc., on that trip. Well, today we will apply the simple arithmetic of addition and subtraction to this real life subject. I will draw a little table of the process of building new housing units.'
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Thursday, December 14, 2006
Facts On US Housing Boom-Bust Cycles and Recessions / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Jas_Jain
No one denies that housing in the US has been cyclical with huge swings in the new construction as well as resale activity (both showing a high correlation with each other). Establishment no longer denies that there was a housing bubble during the past four years and that it has begun to burst. However, the establishment, led by the Federal Reserve, assures the public of a "soft-landing." Some even point to "the mid-cycle slowdown during 1995" without pointing out that there was no housing boom preceding that slowdown and, hence, no housing-led recession to follow.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 19, 2006
US Housing slump continues as housing starts plunge 27% / Housing-Market / Strategic News
By: Sarah_Jones
Contrary to Alan Greenspans comments last month that the US housing market was showing signs of having bottomed, the latest data released by Commerce Department show that the housing market is still weak and likely to continue to drift lower well into 2007
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
The UK Property Market Boom compared to World Property Markets / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the UK property market continues to shrug aside higher interest rates and march higher, we take a look at what could be in store given the performance of property markets in major economies from around the world.
US Property Market - The bubble across the atlantic has most definitely popped, with prices forecast to fall a further 10% during 2007. It could take the US 5 years to recover from this slump with fallout expected to hit to the US economy and leave it vulnerable to external shocks such as if oil prices took off again.
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Monday, November 06, 2006
Investing in the Japanese Property Market - A new Housing Bull Market Emerges / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Japanese property 16 year bear market increasingly looks like it has come to an end. Presenting an excellent opportunity for investors to get in on a new housing bull market just when other property markets around the world are showing signs of peaking or like the US market are actually falling.
MarketOracle looks at how to invest in Japanese Property Market for the long-term.
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Wednesday, November 01, 2006
The UK Housing Boom continues as Abbey relaxes lending rules to X5 to further inflate the housing bubble / Housing-Market / Strategic News
By: Sarah_Jones
The Abbey is to offer home buyers mortgages of up to five times their salary to help them cope with the booming housing market. The traditional limit has been 3.5 times salaries which has gradually been relaxed over recent years by many of the prime mortgage lenders and in some cases will lend as much as 7.5 times income depending on an individual's circumstances.
'With house prices rising and the market going that way, people are having to borrow more to be able to afford a home,' an Abbey spokesman said last night.
'What we are doing is offering people the opportunity to borrow up to five times their salary. This is all dependent on affordability, salary, credit rating and deposit. We do not want to bankrupt anybody by doing this, but the high earners out there, with healthy deposits behind them who want to buy these houses that are just slightly out of reach will now be able to do that.'
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Friday, October 20, 2006
US Housing Market heading for biggest decline since the Great Depression / Housing-Market / Analysis & Strategy
By: Sarah_Jones
According to the latest US Housing Market forecasts, US house prices are headed for a 3.7% decline in 2007. This would be the greatest full year decline since the 1930's Great Depression.
US House prices are expected to make a low late 2007, and probably move sideways for some time.
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Saturday, October 14, 2006
Why UK House prices continue to rise ! / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For how many years have the market commentators been predicting a UK housing crash ? 1 year, 2 years, 5 years ? Yes in some cases even 5 years ago market pundits have been calling a crash, but in the meantime house prices, to this very day continue to rise ever higher !
Why ?
Here are four reasons as to why house prices in the UK continue to rise
