Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 26, 2014
No Stop for Bitcoin Price before $600? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we don’t support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market.
We frequently repeat that it is hard to exactly pinpoint what’s behind a given price move. While some reasons given by the media might have merit, in most of the cases claiming that “Bitcoin moved because X” (plug whatever you want for X) might not be warranted. This is probably done for the sake of a “good story” but does not have to have much to do with actual reasons for the price fluctuations.
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Saturday, May 24, 2014
Two Scenarios for Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
Cutting right to the chase: we don't support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market at the moment.
Forbes' Kashmir Hill posted an article yesterday in which she discusses the possibility of sending bitcoins to people living in emerging markets:
Read full article... Read full article...Earlier this week, many in the Bitcoin community got very excited about a short film that demonstrates a promising use for Bitcoin. Ronah, a Ugandan woman who emigrated to Brookline, Massachusetts in 2011, regularly sends tuition money to her 20-year-old brother, Ronald, who is studying accounting and finance in Kampala. (...)
Friday, May 23, 2014
USDJPY Set For New Highs / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Submissions
Austin Galt writes: Let’s begin by taking a look at the big picture, the yearly chart.
YEARLY CHART
Here we can see a powerful up move started in 2012, went full bore in 2013 and seems to have stagnated in 2014. It appears that a longterm bear market is in force consisting of lower lows and lower highs and so far the last few years of trading hasn’t damaged that technical picture.
Thursday, May 22, 2014
FX Majors Look For Correction - Elliott Wave Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD
EURUSD fell to a new swing low but that does not mean that wave (b) correction is already completed. Corrections after such a sharp fall liek we have seen from 1.3992 are usually more complex and they will tend to retrace for around 38.2%. That's now the case on the EURUSD yet, so we assume that wave (b) is still unfolding as irregular correction. Ideally, we will see an expanded flat with 1.3770 yet to come before market turns down for (c).
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Forex Trading - AUD/USD Double Trouble / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the minutes of the RBA's May policy meeting showed that the bank plans to hold interest rates at record lows for an extended period of time. Additionally, the Conference Board reported that its index for Australia was flat in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. In reaction to this disappointing news, the Australian dollar dropped to a 2-week low against its U.S. counterpart, declining below two important support levels. Does this mean that investors’ sentiment is deteriorating and we’ll see AUD/USD lower?
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Ink + Paper Doesn't Equal Value: Prechter on Fiat Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: EWI
My dad will turn 84 this year. When he was born, you could walk into a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury and redeem your paper money for gold. It actually said you could on every piece of U.S. paper currency:
"Redeemable in gold on demand at the United States Treasury, or in Gold or lawful money at any Federal Reserve Bank."
You can't do that today, which helps explain why my dad is so grumpy.
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Monday, May 19, 2014
USD/JPY: Downtrend Continuation In View / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD/JPY has turned down last week and fell beneath 101.42 after broken channel line (circled zone). As such, corrective rally up to 102.36 appears complete which means that traders should be aware of a downtrend continuation in days ahead, ideally close to 100. Invalidation level is now at 102.36, but break above 102.00 would already threaten the bearish look.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Bitcoin Possible False Calm / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we still support short speculative positions in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss $470.
At least 10 members of the Bitcoin Foundation have left in the wake of the election of Brock Pierce as a new director, Reuters reported. We can read:
Some of the members cited Pierce’s troubled past. That includes allegations in lawsuits from three employees of Pierce’s first company, bankrupt web video business Digital Entertainment Network, that he provided drugs and pressured them for sex when they were minors.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Fall Of the U.S. Dollar Based Monetary System: Russia Puts The Avalanche In Motion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: GoldSilverWorlds
It is truly astonishing how much trust people have in the establishment. Almost everyone believes that central planners are focused on defending the best outcome for society. In the same respect, almost everyone nowadays believes that “things are contained.”
Looking under the hood, it appears that several worrisome trends are going on. Examining those trends, one can only conclude that they are building up momentum. But make no mistake, momentum, in this case, is not in the right direction.
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Friday, May 16, 2014
Gold Standard - How the U.S. Government Created the Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
By Robert Prechter
The Government's Disastrous Reign Over U.S. Money
Very few people know that the United States did not create a monetary unit pegged to 'buy' some amount of metal, as if the dollar were some kind of money independent of metal. In 1792, Congress passed the U.S. Coinage Act, which defined a dollar as a coin containing 337.25 grains of silver and 44.75 grains of alloy. Congress did not say a dollar was worth that amount of metal; it was that amount of metal. A dollar, then was a unit of weight, like a gram, ounce or pound. Since the alloy portion of the coin was nearly worthless, a dollar was essentially defined as 1 Troy ounce.) In a nutshell, a dollar was equal to a bit more than 3/4 of an announce of silver; or, in reverse, an ounce of silver was equal to $1.293.
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Thursday, May 15, 2014
EUR/USD – Currency Bears in Charge / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the combination of positive economic indicators in the U.S. pushed the euro to a 11-week low against the greenback. Thanks to this news, EUR/USD slipped to important support levels. Will they withstand the selling pressure and trigger a corrective upswing in the following days? Or maybe today’s show of weakness means that the worst for the common currency is not behind us?
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
EUR/USD A Gift for Currency Bears / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the ZEW Institute showed that its index of German economic sentiment fell to a 16-month low this month. Additionally, the ZEW Institute reported that its economic sentiment index for the entire euro zone also moved down to 55.2 in May, from a reading of 61.2 the previous month. These disappointing numbers pushed the common currency to a 1-month low against the U.S. dollar. In this way, EUR/USD dropped to its downside target, but is it enough to trigger a corrective upswing?
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Bitcoin - Time to Back Out? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we still support having short speculative in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss at $470.
MasterCard is lobbying on Bitcoin, The Hill reported. The credit card company is thought to be one of the businesses that might potentially lose most if Bitcoin was to become a reliable and widely-acceptable payment network. The article:
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Monday, May 12, 2014
Squawk Showdown: Bitcoin or Gold? What’s Next for Currency / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
Georgi Ivanov writes: Our recent Squawk Walk on the streets of Taipei surveyed people at random what they would decide, given a choice to walk away with a gram of gold or a USB stick, loaded with one bitcoin. The responses varied, but with a slight margin, bitcoin won the competition. We have to ask – are virtual currencies on the path to revolutionizing the global financial system, or are they just a lot of hot air? The truth would have to be somewhere in the middle: changes are coming, but they will not be revolutionary, yet, cryptocurrencies do offer a new opportunity for the unprecedented democratization of global finance.
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Monday, May 12, 2014
What’s Going on With the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jonathan_Davis
The below is the index of the US $ against a basket of currencies, such as € (c 58% of index), £, CAN$, CHF (Swiss Franc) and Japanese ¥ and (strangely) Swedish Krona.
As you can see the US$ was in confirmed uptrend from the all time low in 2011 to last Summer (red diagonal line indicates).
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Friday, May 09, 2014
Bitcoin Price Up Move Might Be Less Bullish Than You Think / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
To the point: we still support short speculative positions in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss at $470.
Bitcoin is sometimes viewed as a highly disruptive innovation with the potential to change the payment system. While it surely provides a lot of opportunities, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it will cut the banks out of the system. Bloomberg posted a piece yesterday in which it argues that the very banks that would feel any kind of threat from Bitcoin are currently studying the innovative nature of Bitcoin to possibly come up with their own kinds of seamless payment systems:
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Wednesday, May 07, 2014
USD/JPY Ignition / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Ignition...liftoff! USD/JPY rose from 101.43 at the low to 101.75 at 8:00 am. At 8:00 am SPX futures started to ramp. SPX pre-market is up 7 points and may go to Short-term resistance at 1876.00 or 17-day resistance at 1878.00 (not shown).
There is some concern that the decline so far is not impulsive. The best explanation why is that the shallow clustering of supports temporarily prevent the declines from making the longer declines typical in an impulse. Another explanation is that SPX may be making a Leading Diagonal wave. Something else may be happening if the ramp goes above 1885.51.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Sterling British Pound Strength and 'Real' Differentials / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
The British pound is the best performing currency so far this quarter (+2.0% vs USD) as well as over the last 6 months (+5.7% vs USD) out of the top-traded 11 currencies.
Real differentials in 2-year govt bond yields (yield minus inflation) have helped explain currency performance over the last 2 years, including sterling's strength since last autumn.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Bitcoin Price Reaction or Lack of Reaction to News from China? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: we don’t support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market at the moment.
More news from China coming our way. BTC China, a prominent Bitcoin exchange, announced today it would stop taking yuan-denominated deposits from the Bank of China as of today:
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Bitcoin is a Fascinating Story, and I Think it's Real / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Bloomberg
Michael Novogratz, principal of Fortress Investment Group, spoke with Bloomberg Television anchor Stephanie Ruhle from the Sohn Investment Conference in New York today.
Novogratz talked about Bitcoin, saying, "Intellectually it's a fascinating story to me, and I think it's real. If you look at the total market cap of Bitcoin, it's probably somewhere between $4.5 billion, $5 billion. There are in best estimates somewhere 30,000 individual programmers working on Bitcoin. My college roommate lives down in Barbados. He was the smartest guy that we went to school with. He full time works on derivatives of Bitcoin. So there's this open source community where there's huge brain power, let alone all the VC money that's going in. And so from Marc Andreessen and his company to Benchmark...there's lots of smart money going in. I've never seen a small project with more human capital going into it, and so I kind of want to bet just on that alone."