Category: Stock Markets 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
SPX May be Turniing at the 50% Retracement Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I am remiss in not bringing up the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline as a potential target for this retracement. It appears that SPX may have just turned at 2042.74 while the exact location of the trendline is at 2041.61. The 50% retracement point is 2041.57. While I did mention the 50% level this morning, I had not recently calculated the position of the trendline. Now that I have located it properly in the chart, you can see how many times (at least 5) it has provided support in the past month. Today it finally appears to act as resistance.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Is The BBC Global 30 Index Signalling a Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
"A wise man is he who does not grieve for the thing which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has." ~ Epictetus
Much the same way many experts felt that the NYSE was issuing a series of death signals, there are just as many who share the same sentiment towards the signals the Global BBC 30 Index is supposedly issuing. This index is thought to provide a more accurate reflection of what is going on in the markets as it is based on the economic data of 30 of the world's largest companies. In today's world where manipulation is the order of the day, over-reliance on such an index might not be the most prudent of actions. It has, however, confirmed that volatility levels have surged to the moon, but of course, we already knew this would occur as this was predicted well in advance by the Market volatility indicator (V-indicator).
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market Retracement Not Yet Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
SPX appears to need one more probe higher to 2033.00 – 2035.00. Of note is that the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% is at 2033.27, so this retracement appears to be quite muted, compared to earlier ones. Of course, it may go higher, so the 50% retracement is at 2041.57, just in case...
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market Reversal Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX appears to have completed an impulse from its Thursday morning high. The correction, which is nearly complete, appears to be a flat one, indicating a further decline ahead. Today is a Pivot day, suggesting a reversal may be about to take place.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market 1993 Or Bust..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
We can spend forever talking about what the market will do. Will it break down or will it break out. What will be the catalyst, or will it not, and so on. Here is the bottom line folks. Until the bears can take away 1993 on the closing basis with a bit of force, the trend remains basically trend less, with a bullish bias, meaning just meandering. But the bears are unable to take control. Control is different than meandering. Since we're still in a bull market, to me, meandering within it is not bearish. It's only bearish when a critical level of support is removed in a fashion that suggests much lower prices. We have yet to see that on any level. We get that if we can push some volume in to a break down below 1993. To be completely blunt, losing 1993 on light volume would likely lead to a head fake down. When a market breaks one way or the other away from a trend that was in place prior, big money usually lets you know it's occurring.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Stock Market Headed Higher because more Americans drink Coffee than own Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
More Americans drink coffee than invest in the markets and yet many of these individuals are stunned that the market is going higher when good jobs are not as easy to find, rents and cost of everyday necessities keep rising. 61% of Americans drink coffee on a daily basis compared to the only 48% that invest in the markets. These stunning facts were published in a recent article; the article states that if the $1200 that the average American spends on coffee were invested in the market in 2009, it would have grown to $3600.
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Monday, December 21, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Sell-off, But Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, December 21, 2015
Stock Market's Wild Swings May Continue into the New Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I just need to start off saying that due to the Holidays, this update will not include charts. Happy Holidays to everyone!
Two weeks ago, I had been expecting a stock market low around the New Moon at the Sagittarius/Capricorn cusp due December 14th when the Sun squares Jupiter near the Bradley turn of December 11. I also was expecting a rally into mid week and then possible further weakness into week's end, which we got. We are now falling into the moon at the Aries/Taurus cusp, which often times is a market low when the stock market falls through the moon at the Sagittarius- Capricorn cusp. We are also at a Bradley turn when Mercury squares Uranus (which turns stationary direct Christmas Day on the full moon).
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Sunday, December 20, 2015
Stock Market Failed Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Still Bull Market?
SPX: Intermediate trend – The index appears to have made a secondary top at the 2104 level and to have started another decline of intermediate duration.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Flash Crash Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This is getting uncomfortably close to a meltdown, despite the late hour. If it continues to decline into the close, options sellers will be caught wrong-footed and will have to continue to sell on Monday.
Flash Crash time?
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Figures Out Fed No Longer Has Its Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
US stocks soared while the Fed was meeting to raise interest rates this week — though it’s not clear why that should be so since monetary tightening isn’t generally a good thing for stock prices.
In any event, it didn’t last. Over the past 48 hours the Dow is down more than 3%, with many, many individual stocks down far more.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Is the Stock Market "Courting Catastrophe?" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
On the surface, it seems like a “normal” trading day in the SPX. It is not. The chart gives it away by showing the daily volume already at the to of its daily range and it’s not yet 1:00 pm.
Back in 2006 I had the privilege of talking with Andrew Smithers, who was part of the investigation team to determine what caused the Crash in 1987. He had been interviewed by Barrons Magazine in a now famous article entitled, “Courting Catastrophe.”
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Post ZIRP Stock Market and Gold Era / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve finally mustered the courage to end its radical zero-interest-rate-policy experiment this week. Its quarter-point rate hike announced on the seventh anniversary of ZIRP kicks off the long road to normalization. This leaves the stock markets and gold in unprecedented uncharted territory. The Fed has never before attempted to exit ZIRP, let alone in the midst of such extremely distorted markets.
The Fed’s ZIRP saga symmetrically ended 7 years to the day after it began way back in mid-December 2008. That was just after the dark heart of that year’s once-in-a-century stock panic, which struck terror into the Bernanke Fed. The benchmark S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had plummeted 30.0% in a single month in October, and then plunged another 11.4% from those brutal lows in the subsequent month.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
Stock Market Something Strange is Going On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that the data feed to all the websites from the stock exchanges is having issues. StockCharts, Bloomberg and ForexPros appear to be in limbo. As far as I can tell, this is accurate, but who knows what goes on when the system is “off?”
This may be a way to discourage trades, since one can hardly know if he/she is getting an accurate quote. There is no report from ZeroHedge on this issue, which I find strange.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
SPX Defending 2000 Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
I spent some time reviewing my Cycles chart to verify its accuracy. You may recall that I had suggested about two weeks ago that December 9 would be the “ideal day” for a Master Cycle low (258 days). Instead, it may have fallen on Monday, December 14, at 11:39 am. You might say that it was 4.3 calendar days from the average length of time, on day 263. I don’t have the exact figure any more, but I had done a study that showed that over 90% of all Cycle bottoms happen within 4.3 days of their normal date.
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
SPX Breaks a Trifecta of Supports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has declined beneath its 200-day at 2062.12, its 50-day at 2061.90 and its mid-Cycle support at 2060.98. In case you have been stopped out, this is a confirmed sell signal. We may see a very fast, deep decline, so stay on the alert and stay short.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Interest Rate Decision / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market S&P 500 Rally Might Prove Short-Lived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: AnyOption
To much fanfare, the Federal Open Market Committee made the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2006 in a unanimous decision approved by all voting members. This marks the beginning of a tightening cycle that forecasts another 4 rate increases over 2016, putting rates near 1.50% by the end of 2016 should the United States economy avoid a recession. When looking at corporations and the main sources of growth over the past few years, interest rate normalization is largely a negative indication for equity valuations as it diminishes the viability of cheap borrowing to finance buybacks. Although the announcement of a hike was forecast to dent equity benchmarks, especially the S&P 500, the cash session saw a 1.45% rally in the index despite the headwinds approaching. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Stock Market Finally .25... Bullish Statement.... Gradual.... Bull-Bear At 8%.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The world has waited for years it seems for that first rate hike, since the economy was supposedly improving. Month after month, and report after report, for well over a year the market couldn't decide whether Fed Yellen would finally raise rates that quarter of a percent. You would think it would be slam dunk if things were rosy, but we all knew they really weren't, so she refused to raise. ISM Manufacturing Report is in decline. Services going the wrong way as well. It's hard to raise rates when the economy can't get out of its own way. The pressure kept mounting, however, as the Yellen knew the street wanted to see some confidence, since she kept saying that things were getting better. She finally did the dirty deed this afternoon. I'm sure she feels mixed, since we are contracting on manufacturing. It's truly unheard of to raise rates, even though they were at zero, in a declining economy. The key to the whole thing was the statement after the raise.
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Thursday, December 17, 2015
SPX Sports a 7-point Reversal Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has now formed a seven-point reversal, normally seen as a five-point reversal. This is typical when there exists a need for delay combined with a high degree of emotion in the market. It appears to be challenging the Intermediate-term resistance at 2073.31.
The sell signal is reaffirmed when SPX has fallen again beneath the 200-day Moving Average at 2067.31. Confirmation that the sell signal is still supportable when SPX falls beneath today’s open where the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline lies at 2045.
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