Category: Financial Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Global Economies, China Solid...Europe Horrible...USA OK.... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Over the weekend, we had to wait on news from both Europe and China regarding their economic condition. We heard from China first. Their news was surprisingly good. This allowed for our futures to be up quite decently early last night. This morning we got the news from Europe. The news wasn't nearly as good as the news from China. In fact, the news was very bad. It showed a rise in unemployment and a rapid drop in their manufacturing report. The news was met with a sharp drop in their futures that went from very green to red. However, what was quite interesting was how the futures actually hung in there fairly well here in the U.S., considering how nasty the reports were from Europe. I would have thought a big plunge would have occurred. Then, I realized that we had our own huge report to deal with thirty minutes into our trading day. The ISM Manufacturing Report, which would tell us whether we were joining Europe in the big plunge, or China in the good news. The news was good.
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Monday, April 02, 2012
Increasing Signs of a Stock Market Top, UK FTSE Leading the Way? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top may already have started to take shape.
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Monday, April 02, 2012
Stock and Currency Markets, Who is Leading Who? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The US stocks markets continue to chop around, although if you look under the hood there are some startling clues which either will correct themselves or they are suggesting that some markets have already topped and will head lower. Thus I suspect eventually the US markets will follow.
The US markets have held their ground recently but other markets that are interlinked and closely follow US stocks are starting to peel away, so if that continues I suspect US stocks will follow, it's just a matter of time.
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Saturday, March 31, 2012
Dr Copper suggests, its the longs that are the Gamblers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Copper is known as a base material for construction and manufacturing, it is also known that China imports 35% of all its copper. If true risk on was built on solid foundations copper prices would reflect this, lets see what you think.Copper is sensitive to PMI (Purchasing Manufacturing Index) data, the HSBC China PMI has post 5 consecutive drops. Makes you wonder who is doing all the buying.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Investor Profit and Protection from Two Mega Trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens….while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Financial Markets Week Ahead Trading Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Here is my video analysis on what to expect this week in silver, gold, oil and the SP500.
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Monday, March 26, 2012
Stock Market Rally Another Pause or Something More? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.
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Sunday, March 25, 2012
Was it really going to work, Operation Twist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The last two QE programs boosted stocks and bonds, the third QE program known as operation Twist (they buying of long dated bonds) is supposed to keep stocks high and long dated bond yields down. It seems the Fed Operation Twist may be running out of wind, the 10yr Treasury yield jumped up a 0.5% after higher inflation and better economic numbers in the last few weeks. Maybe it was a silly idea after all.
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Saturday, March 24, 2012
The Fed, Gold, Stock Market and the Retail Investor Mindset / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The recent rally has been breathtaking, however the majority of investors have missed out on a large portion of these gains as significant levels of cash have been either moved to bond funds or taken out of equity markets consistently during this rally. Let’s face it, financial markets around the world are not what they once were.
U.S. equity markets in particular are manipulated by high frequency trading which is wreaking havoc in the marketplace in terms of potential short term volatility expansions and “flash crashes” that can be isolated to one underlying stock.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the Stock Market Fear Index Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
This week may provide some trading opportunities for us if all goes well now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again. Last week we saw money move out of bonds and into stocks and the bullishness vibe in the air reminds of many market peaks just before a 5%+ correction in stocks.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Forex, Metals and Stock Market Outlook for the Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The markets this week saw lots of movement with rallies in the dollar, equities went to new highs and metals drifted lower throughout last week. With all the optimism in the global economic outlook let’s have a look at what the charts are saying and what next week may hold concerning these markets.
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Monday, March 19, 2012
Stock Market New Price Target Almost Reached, Gold Continuing Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.
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Friday, March 16, 2012
Two Critical Investment Keys Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
“How about capitalism, Ben Bernanke?”
Jim Grant, Interest Rate Observer, Bloomberg Interview, 3/13/12
“A difference which makes no difference is no difference.”
William James, Philosopher
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Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Trading the Sun : The influence of the sun on the financial markets and the macro economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
There is an 11-year (average) cycle of solar activity, measured in sunspots. Solar activity causes geomagnetic disturbance on Earth. The sun is also responsible for a cycle of nocturnal lunar illumination on Earth that lasts approximately a month.
Psychological and behavioural research links geogmagnetism and lunar phasing with human mood, and sunspots with human excitability. Studies also link altered moods to more cautious behaviour, including financial decisions. In the last 150 years there have been several papers published demonstrating correlations between these natural phenomena and the financial markets and the macro economy. However, perhaps due a lack of scientific consensus over causality, solar phenomena remain niche disciplines in trading and economics, largely ignored by the financial and business media. In this document I will attempt to provide evidence that solar phenomena are the underlying cause of several financial and macroeconomic phenonema, and therefore deserving of a more central role in trading stocks and commodities.
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Monday, March 12, 2012
Disconnected Financial and Commodity Markets Generating Great Trading Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We look at key charts and analysis to understand the bias in the markets. Not wasting too much time, lets go straight to the point.
First up has been the VIX/VXO charts which is still at the ceiling of a decade high. Nothing much has changed their.
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Sunday, March 11, 2012
Mr. Market: Get It Through Your Head, The PSI DOESN’T Matter / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
I don’t know how many times I have to say this, but I’m saying it again.
Greece and the Euro are finished. The math is impossible. There is no way on earth that this Second Bailout accomplishes anything worthy of note. The idea that this country will somehow return to economic growth within two years, based on an additional €130billion in bailouts is outright insane.
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Sunday, March 11, 2012
Post Greek PSI Deal, We Are Not BULLish or BEARish, We Are GORILLAish / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The Greek PSI deal is done, deadline passed, the ISDA has called a credit event on bonds that did not voluntary sign up for a 70% plus haircut. However what all the folks in Wall street are doing this weekend are trying to work out how long the queue is outside the door of the ISDA (the folks who trigger CDS deals) Monday morning coming, to see what debts will be forced to be reported on profit and loss statements.UPDATED2
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Saturday, March 10, 2012
Why Financial Markets Ignored Jobs Report and Greek Debt Deal! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
There was much anticipation in advance of Friday’s Labor Department employment report for February. The report has a reputation for often coming in with a big surprise in one direction or the other that creates a dramatic market response. This time it did not. The consensus forecast was that 213,000 new jobs were created in February, and the unemployment rate would remain at 8.3%. The actual report was that 227,000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate remained at 8.3%.
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Friday, March 09, 2012
Commodity and Financial Markets Recap / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Today unfolded as was expected with the metals and shares closing higher while the dollar sold off as traders expect the Greek drama to resolve without financial systemic risk being triggered.
Gold performed well today and will probably thrust higher on the Greece news tonight.
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Thursday, March 08, 2012
“Planets’ Amazing Influence on Stock Market. What Lies Ahead?” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Dincer YILMAZ writes: Since the ancient times, Sun has been thought of representing gold. Today’s modern astrology not only relates gold to Sun but also general stock market and speculative motivations. Horoscope’s 5th house represents children, public amusement, love, speculative markets and collective human action. The ruler of the 5th house is deemed as Sun, so other planets’ influence on Sun can help us to forecast which way the market will go in the future.
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