Category: Financial Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, May 21, 2012
Stock, Forex and Commodity Markets Analysis and Trading Charts Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We have been having a superlative run in May. But we have little time to gloat over what we did in the last 10 days. Time to look at some weekly charts as Asia opening draws closer. The verdict is at the end of the post but dare you not read through all my charts before reading the conclusion. I have spent hours on a sunday late night to pick setups for you. So please give me an audience and read it.
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Monday, May 21, 2012
Are You Ready for Market Mayhem? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Shah Gilani writes:
There's going to be a lot of very heavy betting over the next few days, weeks, and months on what's going up, what's going down, and what's going around:
1.How far will Facebook IPO price go?
2.How far DOWN from here will JPMorgan go, with the FBI and DOJ now sniffing around?
3.How far AROUND the globe will the fallout be if Greece loses its game of chicken?
Monday, May 21, 2012
Gold Triple Bottom and Stocks Oversold – Now What? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
On Gold:
Gold has now made a bullish reversal on a weekly basis, as price rallied sharply on Thursday and Friday.
Support held, which means Gold could be on the verge of setting a double/triple bottom around $1,550:
Friday, May 18, 2012
Fear stalks the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Fear is stalking the darkening streets of the investment world. Will the EU fall apart? If so, how will this impact on the rest of the world? Will governments resort to printing money in order to inflate their debts into oblivion or will austerity prevail; leading to a collapse in the world’s financial markets?
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Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Stock Markets Remain Addicted to QE, Why We're Turning Japanese / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
When you've been working the markets as long as I have, you learn that the biggest dangers are always found in a place just over the horizon.
It's why I spend my time hunting for stories, news items and opinions that in the old days were considered far "below the fold."
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Tankage!! SPX and Metals Overview / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
When I wrote the last article on the metals, I was looking for lower gold and silver prices in the summer. Gold and Silver are at 3 month lowsIn the article I said GLD would fall to $150 and we are there now. So now what?
I didn't want to leave you hanging, so I have included a short update.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Gold, Forex and Stocks Intermarket Analysis and Trading Chart Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We would first like to give a quick update on the state of fundamental data and policitcal situation before we dive deeper into technical charts and forex setups.
French Election
With 51.7% of the vote, the socialist Hollande has narrowly won the French presidential election. At the election to the National Assembly due to take place in June, his side should win the majority needed to govern. However, Hollande’s victory makes the battle to contain the sovereign debt crisis even more complex. Hollande largely ignores France’s economic problems; the French economy is likely to drift further southwards. It will also make it even harder for France and Germany to agree a common line. The ECB will continue to de facto finance the peripheral countries by printing money for longer than many had feared.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Financial Markets Head Firmly In The Sand! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
We now see signs of deflation everywhere except of course in the news where they still insist in talking about the possibility of inflation. On Friday we saw that a drop in gasoline prices dragged producer prices down in April by the most in six months, according to data released by the government on Friday. The Labor Department said producer prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in April to mark the biggest decline since October. The unadjusted 12-month rise of 1.9% in the rate of wholesale-level inflation was the weakest since October 2009. Energy prices tumbled 1.4% on the month due to a reversal of a recent spike in oil prices as well as continued weakness in natural-gas prices. Prices of intermediate goods, which are partly processed items like flour or lumber, shrank 0.5%, which also was the largest drop since October. Prices of crude materials like raw cotton, grains and crude petroleum tumbled 4.4%. Besides energy, other notable drops came from corn, which dropped 5.6%, and scrap aluminum, which skidded 6.4%.
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Monday, May 07, 2012
How High Frequency Trading are Ripping Off Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
For the past few years there have been an explosion in High Frequency Trading in Financial Markets. HFT have been around for quite some time since the early days from Deutsche Bourse. Ever since then HFT has spread its wing into the futures , options and foreign exchange markets and it encouraged more brokers to engage in algorithmic and black box trading.HFT Activity is Gathering Pace
It is now estimated that daily trading volume in the US market consists of more than 70% HFTs, in Europe it has more than 60% penetration and here in Asia it is more than 50% with strong growth in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong , Japan , India and China is set to triple its HFT trading by 2013.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2012
SPY-TLT Relationship a Cautionary Tale / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
In reaction to today's strong ISM data, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) has rocketed towards a retest of its April 2 high at 142.21. Meanwhile, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) has weakened, but curiously it has not imploded in a way that would suggest either that the economy is stronger than most people think or to allay suspicions about sustainable strength in the equity indices.
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Sunday, April 29, 2012
Stock Market Bulls Find Their Footing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The decline that we have seen over the past few weeks has been very corrective and does not support a strong break lower; the result was a strong reversal higher from our targets as expected. If you noticed the AUDUSD pair failed to take out its previous lows so held key support, as well as oil holding the $102 area. As long as you see other risk markets support US stocks I don't see any evidence to support a bearish stance atm.
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Friday, April 27, 2012
Final High 2012 For Stock Market and Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
It's amazing sometimes how much difference a year can make on investor psychology. For most of last year investors worried incessantly about a potential "double dip" U.S. recession and the possibility of another worldwide credit crisis beginning in Europe.
Fast forward to 2012 and those worries have mostly evaporated from investors' minds. The consensus now is that the economy has improved and corporate earnings will continue to increase. The biggest worry for most investors is where they can achieve the biggest dividend yield while the Fed continues to artificially hold down bank interest rates. They further believe that the bull market that began in March 2009 will continue to achieve higher stock prices into 2013.
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Saturday, April 21, 2012
Apple Stock is Less than 5pts Away From a Flash Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Apple Computer is only 5 points away from its 50-day moving average at 569.23. Selling could explode once it falls beneath that level. Whether it happens today or not depends on which major player pulls the trigger first. But they have to be sweating and praying that it won’t happen.
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Saturday, April 21, 2012
Investor Essential Knowledge for Maximizing Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
“Since its inception in 1913, The Federal Reserve Board has been responsible for almost 95% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. All this has been achieved through its ability to continually inflate the money supply.
And, between 1985 and 2005, the Federal Reserve Board has increased the money supply by five times. This extraordinary money creation is merely the catalyst for debt creation. In a fiat money system, money is debt…there is absolutely no way this money can ever be repaid except by continued inflation. But, now that the credit bubble is blown up, inflation is no longer an option; bankruptcy looms.”
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Friday, April 20, 2012
Euro-zone Collapse, And Yet Another PIIGS Bites the Dust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
To all those who say that deflationary collapses cannot happen in paper monetary systems, I ask you: don't the PIIGS-ies of Europe count? Because they're all falling, one right after the other, like dominoes. Today, the Spanish stock market ($SMSI) closed below its spring, 2009 lows. Here's a 5 year weekly chart through today's close:
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Friday, April 20, 2012
The Kondratieff K Wave Strikes Back, a multi-generation long wave debt cycle / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The Kondratieff long wave cycle (aka The K Wave) provides the only good explanation of the current state of the global economy and financial markets. It is clear that a multi-generation long wave debt cycle has driven individual, government and corporate debt to crisis levels that are now in the process of a slow motion implosion. The debt is coming due, but central banks and governments have transferred much of the debt to innocent parties and postponed the due date. These misguided monetary and fiscal policies only bought a little time.
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Monday, April 16, 2012
Stock Market Short-term Decline in Progress, Will Gold Follow or Not? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top may already have started to take shape.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 15, 2012
The Markets Are About to Tell You Something / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Shah Gilani writes: Most people seem to have a hard time understanding why the markets do what they do.
The only reason I don't is that I've been trading professionally for 30 years.
Not that I "got it" when I started out. I didn't. I had to learn. And I learned much of what I know the hard way. I made a lot of mistakes. I studied my mistakes, I still do, just as much as I study what moves markets and what I get right.
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Sunday, April 15, 2012
Saving Capitalism From the Capitalists: Are the Trading Desks Destroying the Futures Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Dan Norcini is my friend, one of the more savvy people I know in the markets. He has made his living as an off-exchange trader for many years. The concerns he has about the viability of the markets is genuine, and of great importance.
People forget the reasons why some markets exist, what their function in support of the real economy is fundamentally all about.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Fixed Income Bonds Surges on Stock Market Pullback / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Bond prices have generally moved in the opposite direction to stock indexes in the short term. The recent correction in the S&P 500 has seen fixed income prices advance across the curve. But this recent movement in bonds only tells part of the story.
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