Tankage!! SPX and Metals Overview
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 May 16, 2012 - 05:39 AM GMTBy: Bob_Clark
When I wrote the last article on the metals, I was looking for lower gold and silver prices in the summer. Gold and Silver are at 3 month lows
In the article I said GLD would fall to $150 and we are there now. So now what?
I didn't want to leave you hanging, so I have included a short update.
I think we are on track to make the low at the end of June but my lower target looks easily attainable now. $140.00.
Silver should see new lows as well.
The stock market is correcting as well, which is what we expected. The next low is due in June.
Below I have pasted in part of today's nightly email (May 15th) which I send out each night. It is written in a slightly different format but you should be able to understand it.
SPY.. I have marked in where we are on the daily chart relative to the monthly cycle lows and the trading cycle...on the 20 day chart we see two possible low points....either one can be the 1 month low, we have broken both of them...the count can be looked at in different ways because of this...we have broken a pulse low which we made yesterday..we can count tomorrow as day 6 or 8....bear moves are often fuzzy like this...the thing we should keep in mind is that we are going down and the next low will only be the 11 day low, not the 1, nor the 4 month lows...so it will be a bumpy ride for another two weeks.....we see the targets are 130 and 127.50....we can fall further than that and we will have a better idea when we get close to the end of the month.... the 135 level and the gap right above it will be the point to watch when we get some buying...we see on the 20 day chart that the trend is down and we have not been able to break above a previous high, that is the same thing we are seeing in the metals...that is normal bear move behavior...for tomorrow I am looking for some follow through selling on day 3...we see that several cycles are falling, this is the first time since we made the 1 year low that we have seen multiple cycles acting weak...even the last 4 month cycle could not do much against the FB's buying...
XIU.. (no chart) with commodities in free fall this market is clunking and there is no signs of a bottom...the C$ is killing any export demand and the collapse in the Chinese economy is not going to help Canada sell raw materials...we broke key support today and all the bulls can hope for is a bounce when the metals hit their double bottoms....
GLD.. I have placed the 1 month lows on this chart as well and we see the failed 3 month trading cycle low clearly....the cycles have two counts and I look at them more clearly on the slv chart...it doesn't matter which way we count them they have both broken...we are fast approaching the old low and the initial trust down projects to $140....we see that we have made a 1 month low already, so we have two more months to go...that will take us into the end of June, early July before we bottom...the gaps on the chart show the fear as traders panic out of risk and into bonds...inflation is not on the radar now....short is still the place to be, although we should see some double bottom buying as traders perceive it to be a low risk trade...any rallies will be sold and this is a sell until the end of June....
SLV.. has broken down in the same fashion as gold...worse in fact, it never even made an attempt at holding it's last trading cycle low...we see that the first projection from the top projects down to 23.50....that should be seem in another month....silver is still keeping the end of month low pattern it has been using and it may mean the alternate cycle timing may work on both this and the gold market...the blue dot and the orange dot both are marking the 1 month low...if we use the blue dot as the last 1 month low, then we can say the low marked 1/2 was the 1/2 month low that would mean the next 1 month low will come in next Wednesday...that may be at the double bottom at 25.60...so before the end of the month, not at the beginning of June...it is still bearish because it will only be the second month of the 3 month trading cycle but it is worth keeping track of....the big cycles like the 1 year and the 4 year are still hard down and this is still a sell....new buy and holds are not a good idea here...we have to remember that there is usually a panic at the end of the collapse, so 23.50 may not be the bottom....
Stupid is, as stupid does.
If you have been listening to the perma bulls and are still long the metals. If you are wondering what will happen next to your stock portfolio. Stop guessing and reading these sites, looking for salvation.
I can quickly teach you everything you need, to profit from the Fat Boys trading strategies.
Hoping won't save you from the Fat Boys.
You are either with them, or you are a victim.
Please protect yourself.
Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at www.winningtradingtactics.blogspot.com his email is linesbot@gmail.com.
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