Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, October 17, 2011
Stock Market Breakouts and Breakdowns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
VIX has broken out of its downtrend this morning. It's turn date was on Saturday, so there are no surprises here. Its next target is 65.62, the average target for the Orthodox Broadening Bottom formation.
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Is the Stock Market Being Manipulated By the Fed and its Banks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The U.S. economy has continued to falter since the housing bubble burst. Virtually every part of the economy has worsened, and continues to do so. This is also true on a global scale. Whether discussing unemployment, housing, inflation, GDP, retail sales, etc., the picture is clear, we are still in a depression. Even though the economic picture is bleak, the stock markets have continued to go up in value during this period. Why is this happening? After the market collapse of 2008 and 2009, where losses were generally around 55%, the markets have gone up substantially. During that same period were QE1 and QE2. This is no coincidence. Bernanke took full credit for the rise in the stock markets, and for good reason.
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Rally or New Bull Advance? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Broader global markets have rallied substantially since the start of the new cycle. The NYSE Composite has advanced 14% from October 4th (Chart 1), the EURO 100 has climbed over 11% and many Asian indexes have jumped 12%-17%. But is this the start of a new bull market or just a rebound rally within a longer bear trend?
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Monday, October 17, 2011
Stock Market Ready for a Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline (which appears to have already started) into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - A very strong uptrend typical of bear market rallies has begun. However, the existing pattern suggests that a correction is due.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
How Gold and Stocks are About to Repeat the 2010 Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
In May of 2010, immediately following the flash crash many investors started to become bearish (nervous) regarding their position in gold and equities. Once the general public became aware that the stock market could fall 10% in a matter of minutes, investors became very cautious. Suddenly protecting their capital and current positions was at the forefront of their investment process.
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Sunday, October 16, 2011
Stock Market S&P 500 Index Getting Close to a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The past few months have been very difficult to navigate for retail investors and institutional money managers. The huge week to week price swings and increased volatility have made the current market conditions exceptionally difficult to maneuver. Day traders are about the only group of market participants that outperform during periods such as we have seen since the beginning of August.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Stock Market at The Point of No Return / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Impressive is a understated word, but I don't think many would have expected in just 9 days to see a rally of near 150 points in the SPX in such a short space of time.
The bears simply never stood a chance as the market took "risk on" to a new level. In arguably a move that will likely go down in history as one of the quickest 9 days rallies in history, I have not checked on the stats, but in recent times for a 9 day move, that's the quickest move I can recall.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
A Rising Stock Market Won't Stop the "Economic Rot" Beneath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Suppose you see a lovely house -- one with great curb appeal. It has new paint and manicured shrubbery out front.
But also suppose that you look more closely. You press your thumb on the window sill and the wood frame crumbles in. Come to find out, the wood is rotten in too many places to count. The deck joists and supports are fractured. Even the terrain underneath the deck looks unstable. And the closer you look the worse the problems are.
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Friday, October 14, 2011
A Hair Trigger Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By the first week of October, after having dropped more than 18 percent from its highs achieved in May 2011, U.S. stocks were desperate to latch on to any good news. In this context, the apparent agreement between the major European players to kick their debt can down the road was viewed as an "all clear" for shell shocked investors.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market SPY Lagging the Q's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Let's notice the relative weakness of the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY) in relation to the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ), exhibited by the juxtapostions of their trading moving averages.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market Rally Continues.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There really wasn't much to focus on last night from overseas. The futures were up higher, however, and the move higher in Europe, France, etc. gave our markets a nice boost as the morning wore on, allowing for a decent gap up once trading began. The gains didn't explode higher as we were overbought, but the gains sure did hold decently throughout the day. More of the same these past days as sentiment has really kicked in the trade for the short-term, which is allowing for short-term oscillators to remain overbought, an unusual phenomenon when you're in a bear market. The trade has really gotten out of control on the bearishness. More on that later in this report.
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Thursday, October 13, 2011
Stock Market Broadening Formation Wave structure now agrees with the Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market has morphed yet again, but the Broadening Formation is providing a structure within which we may interpret these moves.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Stock Market Wait For A Pullback Before Making New Buys / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The S&P 500 is up 10% in 6 days!
Until we get some sort of pullback there is nothing to do on the longside, that is unless you like chasing buses at these levels. We don’t and we won’t. But if we get some sort of ABC pullback? A Pullback Off Highs (POH)?, then a launch? Sure then we can SELECTIVELY step up to the plate.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
SPXU Right But too Early / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Several weeks ago I called for a buy of SPXU. The Pro Shares Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) seeks a triple leverage or 300% return on the inverse performance of the S&P 500. Conversely, Pro Shares Ultra Pro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a triple leveraged fund that seeks a 300% return on the performance of the S&P for a single day. If you believe as I do that we are setting up for a leg down on the S&P then SPXU is the best way to profit from this trade.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Europe Pulls A Bernanke..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
If you can't beat them, join them, is what we've heard throughout the years. Europe is in a very dire situation with regards to defaults and their banks. Sarkozy from France and Merkel from Germany got together over the weekend and flooded the system with cash. Sound familiar? It should. It doesn't work, but it offers up hope for some reason. This hope got the futures moving higher overnight in Europe, and that happy feeling came into our neck of the woods. Up we went at the open and up we stayed all day. Nothing rousing after the open, but nice action as the major indexes all closed above the opening prints.
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Monday, October 10, 2011
Start Of A Secondary Reaction In A Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline (which appears to have already started) into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - An intermediate uptrend has begun.
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
Market Short Squeezes and Trading Ranges, Risk On? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Wow!, every time I see one of those short squeezes they still blow me away at the speed and aggression they show, it clearly shows how many are selling this market, as without doubt that was another aggressive short squeeze you saw this past week.
Last week I left you with this chart, and the FX markets were suggesting that we were on the verge of a reversal.
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Sunday, October 09, 2011
Stock Market Breaking Down The Bullish Argument / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Equity bulls have found solace in the abnormally high bearish sentiment readings. Seems everyone wants to be considered a contrarian. Rather than follow the herd these free thinkers venture out into the cold dark tundra alone and unafraid. They proclaim to the world "huge bearish sentiment to propel the stock market rally."
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Saturday, October 08, 2011
Is the Stock Market About to Stage A Multi-Month Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The S&P 500 must have taken notice of the multitude of headlines coming at market participants and proceeded on a path of pure chaos. Since October 4th, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) managed to trade in a range that spanned from 1,074 to as high as 1,171 in 4 days. To put the past 4 days price action into perspective, the S&P 500 Index rallied 97 points or 9% in less than 96 hours.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 08, 2011
Too Many Uncertainties Remain In Place! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Consumers, businesses, and stock markets hate uncertainty, and they sure have been subjected to more of it than they can handle so far this year. As a result, consumer and business confidence is at very low readings, and stock markets around the world are in serious corrections, many down more than the 20% that marks their entry into bear markets.
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