Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Thursday, October 27, 2011
Today Europe Promised Stock Market Investors a Profitable Christmas / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
On Wednesday night EST, Euro zone leaders struck a deal with private banks and insurers for them to accept a 50 percent loss on their Greek government bonds under a plan to lower Greece's debt burden and try to contain the two-year-old euro zone crisis.
The agreement was reached after more than eight hours of hard-nosed negotiations involving bankers, heads of state, central bankers and the International Monetary Fund and aims to draw a line under spiraling debt problems that have threatened to unravel the European single currency project.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Evidence Supports the Bears' Case for the Stock Market S&P 500 / / Stock Markets 2011
I am not one to discuss fundamentals or macro views, but this situation in Europe is beginning to morph into a media frenzy. Price action in the marketplace is changing rapidly in short periods of time based on the latest press releases coming from the Eurozone summit.
I cannot help but comment on the seemingly arbitrary actions coming from this high profile meeting. Nothing has happened that market participants were not already privy too. The European Union is going to strengthen their EFSF fund by levering it up roughly 4 : 1. I have yet to hear how exactly they plan on doing this, but this action was no surprise to anyone that has read an article about the sovereign debt crisis in the past month.
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Thursday, October 27, 2011
Stock Market Consolidating For Now Below 1260.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
There's nothing wrong with consolidation after a nice run up off the lows. Markets often rest when they get close to massive long-term resistance. The key to it all is how they consolidate, or not. If they just plunge lower, it's not the best action. If they hang around within a few percent of that massive breakout level, while things cool off on the oscillators, that's very good action overall. It appears, although no guarantee, that this is what's starting to set up for this market. The wrong news can come out and kill things, and the entire pattern in a heartbeat, but you have to look at what's taking place in the moment. For now, it says the market is handling out after a long run up. The handle could last quite some time, so you don't want to get too aggressive in it. But if this continues for a while longer without a major plunge lower, the bulls should be very satisfied with that type of set-up.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
The Stock Market's Next 1,000-Point Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Stuart Varney, host of the aptly named and very highly rated "Varney & Co." program on Fox Business, put the following question to me in his usual direct style: "Will we have an agreement on Wednesday out of Europe and what will that mean for the markets?"
Yes, I began, we probably will - but for all the wrong reasons, and it will never last.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Stock Market Keeps Fooling The Masses.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
And that's normal behavior. It rarely moves in the direction of the masses, especially for any extended time period. We have seen the masses get too bearish for quite some time now. It's approaching two months' worth of pessimism at extremes. The last five weeks have been off the charts. The market has exploded in those five weeks. Again, that's normal behavior.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2011
October has Killed Another Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
October has a tendency to be a "bear killer." That is, in years when the stock market has been in decline heading into October, the month of October more often than not reverses the decline, at least temporarily. In the years that I've been writing a financial newsletter this was true in the following Octobers: 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2005.
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Monday, October 24, 2011
Stock Climb Wall of Worry. It is all about the Dollar Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The stock markets tend to make a seasonal low at this time, most years. Then rally into the New Year. The big question is, can we climb the wall of worry one more time.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 24, 2011
The S&P Goes - So Goes SPXU and UPRO / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Above my desk I have a big sign that says “the market will always do what the market has always done, misdirect, confuse and confound.” The way the S&P has been behaving since August is proof perfect that this slogan is as true as ever.
For those of you not conversant with the Ultra Pro Shares ETFs Pro Shares Ultra Pro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a triple leveraged fund that seeks a 300% return on the performance of the S&P for a single day. Conversely, The Pro Shares Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) seeks a triple leverage or 300% return on the inverse performance of the S&P 500.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Stock Market Broadening Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
-- The VIX has signaled a potential change in the daily trend last week. Having made its Master Cycle low, it spent the week making a reversal pattern that implies an explosive rally is in the offing. A break in the upper trendline of the Broadening Bottom formation near 55.00 calls for an average gain of 25% above the trendline. A cross of intermediate-term Resistance at 35.87 gives us a buy signal in the VIX.
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Monday, October 24, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Rally, Intermediate Trend Still Strong / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline (which appears to have already started) into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - A very strong uptrend typical of bear market rallies has begun with no top in sight just yet.
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Sunday, October 23, 2011
Stock Market On The Precipice... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I know it seems impossible for this market to keep going higher, and maybe it won't, but the S&P 500 is trying to break through its 200-day exponential moving average at 1234. It's ever so close to forcefully breaking through, and has yet to do so, but the overly bearish sentiment is taking hold for now, whether the market deserves to go higher or not. The bears don't want to see the market move higher from here, because the next level of resistance would be the triple bottom breakdown level of 1260 on the S&P 500.
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Saturday, October 22, 2011
Stock Market, If Only We Could Ignore Europe / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner says the debt crisis in Europe is Europe’s problem, and Europe has the means to resolve it if its governments would stop squabbling among themselves and take action. That seems to be the opinion globally, including among eurozone countries themselves.
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Saturday, October 22, 2011
Time is running out for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The is an interpretation of the Broadening Top formation by Edwards & Magee’s Technical Analysis of the Stock Market. The Elliott Wave analysis would give us a triple zig zag. Both interpretations suggest that this pattern is “buying time.”
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Friday, October 21, 2011
Stock Market Poised For A Sharp Pullback Near Term says Dr Copper / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Back on October 3rd I wrote a public article forecasting a major market bottom at around 1088 on the SP 500 index. I surmised we were about to complete a 5 wave move to the downside that commenced with the Bin Laden highs of 1370 in early May of this year. The following day we bottomed at 1074 intra-day and closed over my 1088 pivot and continued higher as we all know. That brings us to the recent highs of 1233 intra-day this week, a strong 159 point rally off the 1074 lows in just a few weeks.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Stock Market Establishing A Range?...Froth Destroyed.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The market has made a run from S&P 500 1074 on an intraday basis all the way up to 1233. An incredible move. No one is unhappy about this move who played the long side today. The short side got hit hard, especially the crowded trade down at those lows. Loads of shorts just coming into the short side thinking at the lows. That's about par for the course in this emotional game. After such a strong move, and especially since the move has taken us up to key resistance at 1235, it would be very normal for the market to calm down for a while and trade in a range. That range looks to be setting up between the 20-day exponential moving average near 1180 and the 200-day exponential moving average at 1235. That's 45-point range, or just about 4%.
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Thursday, October 20, 2011
Comparing the S&P in 2008 to Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The analog pattern that pops out of my work is not 1998, but Oct 2007 to Jun 2008, which certainly more closely resembles the fundamental world in which we find ourselves now.
Let's notice that in March 2008, the S&P 500 completed a 20% correction off of its Oct 2007 high. The subsequent rally climbed nearly 15%, smacked into and pierced above some key declining weekly EMA's prior to a powerful downside reversal that initiated a period of acute SPX weakness.
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Thursday, October 20, 2011
Stock Market Unpunctured Cycle Report “Risk Off” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Robert M. Williams writes: When I last wrote about the stock market it appeared that we had experienced a major break to the down side as the Dow, the S & P and the Transports all closed at new lows for the year. This took place on October 3rd with the Dow closing at 10,655 and well below the August low of 10,713. This of course was confirmed by the Transports as they closed at a new low of 4,038 on that exact same day. October 3rd was the second of two consecutive 90% down days and was highlighted by 836 stocks reaching a new 52-week low. Then on October 4th we saw even more stocks, 1,202 altogether, closing at new 52-week lows and I don’t remember so many stocks making new lows, at least over the last twenty years. This of course was a sign that sellers had finally exhausted the urge to part with stocks at any priced and I saw it at the time but failed to recognize it for what it was, i.e. an exhaustion of some sort.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Stock Market, Apple Earnings, and Feeding the A.D.D. Monster / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The last hour of trading was intense on Tuesday and then all eyes were focused on Apple’s earnings which were released around 4:30 ET. The initial reaction to the earnings release is negative although as I write this AAPL is bouncing sharply higher in after-market trading on strong volume.To put the final hour’s volatility into perspective, at 3 P.M. Eastern Time the S&P 500 Index was trading at 1,217. A mere 12 minutes later the S&P 500 Index pushed 15 handles higher to trade up to 1,232. Then sellers stepped in and pushed the S&P 500 lower by nearly 12 handles in the following 20 minutes.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2011
After SPXU Has its Day - UPRO is Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Several weeks ago, for the second time, I called for a buy of SPXU too early. The Pro Shares Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) seeks a triple leverage or 300% return on the inverse performance of the S&P 500. Conversely, Pro Shares Ultra Pro S&P 500 (UPRO) is a triple leveraged fund that seeks a 300% return on the performance of the S&P for a single day.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2011
The Stock Market Will Rally Significantly / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Steve Palmer, founder and chief executive of the Toronto-based investment manager AlphaNorth Asset Management, prefers metals that have uses beyond sitting in a basement safe or gift-giving. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Palmer explains why he is looking closely at hardworking base metals that could take off with increasing global demand and a market rally he is forecasting through the end of the year.
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