Category: Stock Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, December 17, 2010
Two Signs a Sharp Drop in Stocks is Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The Bernanke Bubble is showing its first weakness in months.Yeah, I know. Stocks have continued to inch higher almost daily. The volatility of late spring is a distant memory. The only uncertainty for most investors is seemingly how great next year will be.
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Friday, December 17, 2010
Squandered Opportunity by Stocks Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As we entered the noon hour, the S&P 500 saw yet another squandered opportunity by the bears to inflict some meaningful damage to the powerful upmove off of the late-Nov lows. Instead, the index, analyzed through its round-the-clock emini contract, pierced yesterday's low at 1228.75 by 1.25 points, but failed to follow through on the downside, and then pivoted to the upside with power.
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Thursday, December 16, 2010
Stock Market Struggling...Hanging In... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What other words could you possibly use now is how I see it. It's struggling for a good reason. We have some difficult sentiment issues to deal with. A low 10-day put-call reading and a high bull-bear spread at 36% more bulls. When these forces come together it can take a bull market and force a pullback within it at any moment. No way to predict the moment, but you start to see more and more days of up at the beginning of the day, and then a real struggle at the end of it. Nothing horrific, but just more of a struggle each and every day for continuous upside action. This is not bad news for the market as it allows things to unwind more quickly, although a more sustained pullback can occur here due to those sentiment issues.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Stock Market Hindenberg Crash Omens Re-appears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The Hindenburg Omen, last seen in August makes another appearance...
Recommendation: Take no action.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Stock Market Bad Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I've noted before that at intermediate turning points we will usually see breadth diverge from price.
The McClellan oscillator is now showing a large negative divergence and has moved back below zero despite the market making new highs.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Stock Traders Profiting from QE2 ...3, 4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
What about Ben? Two stories.There has been a lot of chatter about the Fed and how their QE2 strategy is failing, but is it?
The government has just agreed to borrow $600 billion dollars from them. That is just a down payment. The government has to refinance 30 % of it's debt this year and 50 % of it's debt over the next 3 years. At present, the government pays approximately 1 1/4 % on the exiting debt. I haven't heard the Fed guarantee the Government a low rate on the new refi loans, just market rates. The higher rates go, the more money the federal reserve banks make.
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
The SP500 and the Financial Sector May Have Been Naughty This Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Market pundits and prognosticators are all worried as to whether Santa is going to deliver presents to Wall Street this year. While we have seen the S&P 500 reach new highs in December, the S&P 500 is facing a wall of resistance around the S&P 1250 area. Based on price action today, Santa may not be coming to Wall Street in 2010.
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Obama Tax Deal Sets the Stocks Bull Running / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: U.S. President Barack Obama's tax deal has yet to pass Congress, but the compromise - hatched as an appeasement to Republican opposition - already has had an effect on the currency and stock markets.
What's more is the deal looks as though it could offer a significant impetus for the U.S. economy as we move into 2011.
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Stock Market Indices Close Mixed in Last Hour Sell-Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended mixed on the session after a last-hour sharp sell-off peeled back a vast majority of the gains and closed the indices right at the lows for the day.
The day started out with a gap up. They then backed and filled, held support, and went to new highs the entire rally, reaching 2225 on the Nasdaq 100 and nearly 1247 on the S&P 500.
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Stock Market Snaps Some Late..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Sometimes you get too complacent and you have to pay a small price for that. For weeks now, we have seen the bull-bear spread get a bit out of hand on the too many bulls side of the ledger. To add to that, we are now seeing many daily put-call readings below .60. Anything below that is a red flag. On the equity side of the put-call ratio we are now seeing readings at .30. That is just not sustainable for further market upside. The end of the day today saw this kick in as the markets finished on their lows, well off the highs of the day. This too complacent situation is not the kiss of death for the market. Not by any means. It simply means the market has some cooling off to do to unwind the overbought daily and short-term charts. A deeper heavier sell is always possible, and, quite frankly, would be in the market's best interest, but the bull phase we're in is very powerful, thus, I'm not sure we get anything terrible from here, but the more we sell the better off we'll be for sure.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
The Stock Markets are Celebrating but Commodities are Clueless / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The optimism today moved east to west as Chinese stocks which rose on Friday, rose the second day after Peoples Bank of China opted not to increase the interest rate as the street expected a hike however PBoC increased the reserve requirement on six of the largest banks of China. Nonetheless, no interest rate hike meant a green signal for the bulls to begin their rampage and this too is now visible in the U.S market.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
The Most Important Stock Market Chart of the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Early last week I gave you four reasons to buy the S&P 500 market (SPX or SPY), and hopefully you had the chance to participate in the market's recent gains. Aside from the somewhat positive fundamentals of both the macroeconomic improvements and individual companies' improved fiscal health, we have year-end window dressing and some good old statistical (and superstitious) beliefs working in your favor, especially if you are a bull.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
Gold and the Overall Strength of the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The past week has been interesting to say the least. Gold is trying to find support while the SP500 grinds its way higher. Let’s jump into the charts and analysis to get better feel for what I feel is happening here.
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Monday, December 13, 2010
Investing for Profit in the Russian Mafia States Stock Market, Goodbye Chinese Century? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Wikileaks recently released U.S. Embassy cables that contained accusations of Russia being a defacto Mafia State that has ceased to be a democracy and is run by the secret services on behalf of an Oligarchy. Much of which comes as nothing of a surprise to either the Russian people, business men or foreign investors who know that whilst doing business with Russia can prove highly profitable, however investors and business people have to be nimble footed by being prepared to pull their funds out at short notice, which mean investors need to be invested in highly liquid funds that aim to track or better the general Russian stock indices such as the RTS stock market index rather than in illiquid individual stocks.
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Sunday, December 12, 2010
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 13th Dec / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Another positive week for US equities as the SPX/NDX/NAZ all made new bull market highs. Economic reports were nearly all positive. The only negatives were an increase in the budget deficit and a downtick in the M1 multiplier. On the positive side, the trade deficit improved along with import/export prices and weekly mortgage applications. Consumer credit expanded, consumer sentiment improved; wholesale inventories, the monetary base and the WLEI all rose. Also weekly jobless claims and excess reserves declined. These reports continued the 2010 second half trend of an improving, not deteriorating, economy.
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Sunday, December 12, 2010
U.S. Interest Rates, the Fed and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Of late it seems that rising interest rates and the Fed’s ability to “keep rates low” have become a focal point for many of the news commentators. The vast majority of the public believes that the Fed is actually controlling interest rates and as a result that they are controlling the credit markets as well as the equity markets. I am about to show you the proof that the Fed follows the short-term credit market and that in reality they do not lead. The data simply does not support the widely held belief that the Fed is in “control” of the markets. I realize that this may come as a shock to you, but reality is what it is. The data speaks for itself.
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Saturday, December 11, 2010
Stock Market Higher..Getting Overbought Again.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market continues its slow and steady grind higher. Small candle sticks along the way aren't great, but it is managing to move higher. The up trend continuing, but unfortunately, the daily charts are all near, or actually at, overbought on those daily charts with stochastic's in the 90's and RSI's in the 68 to 74 range. 74 on the iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM), or small caps, while the Nasdaq is basically at 70. S&P 500 and Dow right there as well. Grinding new highs as we move in to overbought isn't the best action for the bulls. We are making slight new breakouts but not in a fashion that suggests too much more from here. The NDX has major resistance at 2239, or roughly 1%, from here. Not sure we can get it, but you give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls due to the overall up trend in place.
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Friday, December 10, 2010
Will a Santa Claus Stock Market Rally Bring Christmas Cheer to Investors? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jason Simpkins writes: Seasonal market indicators are often spotty, but the so-called "Santa Claus rally" has some solid statistical backing.
The Santa Claus rally lacks a concrete definition, but the gist of the theory is that stocks perform well in December – particularly in the period between Christmas and the first days of the New Year.
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Friday, December 10, 2010
Stock Market Narrowly Mixed Close to Choppy Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices were narrowly mixed today and a little choppy. They started out with a gap to the upside and that was it. Basically, they reached their session highs in the first few minutes, sold off sharply in the morning to test support, bounced midday to take about 50% back, and then backed off to retest. When that was successful they came on into the close, but in the last 10 minutes backed off one more time.
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Thursday, December 09, 2010
Stock Market Indices Close Positive in Volatile Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a very interesting, volatile day with a gap up and a quick pop to resistance which failed, and then rolled over very sharply at that point and reached the session lows after about an hour of trading. At that point the Nasdaq 100 was around 2183 and the S&P 500 just under 1220. A 5-wave advance ensued for the rest of the session, and the indices ended up spiking up into the close, closing near the session highs going away, right at key resistance. Still, they managed to move into the plus column and end up positive on the session.
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