Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 31, 2019
Smart Gold Investors Ask: Crisis or Zombification? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Many people worry about the replay of the last economic crisis. But what if we look not in the direction from which the threat will come? What if we fight the last war? We invite you to read our today’s article about the possibility that the endgame will not to be a 2008-style financial crisis, but a slow, painful and unstoppable zombification of the global economy. And find out how it would affect the gold market.
We know that there is still a lot of time to Halloween. But please come with us to the cemetery to meet some zombie friends – who knows, maybe we will learn something about the economy and the gold market from them?
The current expansion is probably the most hated period of prosperity. Since the very end of the Great Recession, the pundits have been worried about the next economic crisis. We were told that the recession was just around the corner (the sellers of precious metals often aroused such fears). We have been hearing it for ten years.
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Friday, May 31, 2019
Silver SIL Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have been pummeled in recent months, plunging near major secular lows in late May. Sentiment in this tiny sector is miserable, reflecting silver prices continuing to languish relative to gold. This has forced traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold, which has far-superior economics. The major silver miners’ ongoing shift from silver is apparent in their recently-released Q1’19 results.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The definitive list of major silver-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular silver-stock investment vehicle, the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. Launched way back in April 2010, it has maintained a big first-mover advantage. SIL’s net assets were running $294m in mid-May near the end of Q1’s earnings season, 5.6x greater than its next-biggest competitor’s. SIL is the leading silver-stock benchmark.
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Thursday, May 30, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 - Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
When (Not If) Silver Has a "Bitcoin Moment" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
In mid-May 2019 the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), was trading around $5,600. At $4,000, a prominent technician predicted it was gearing up for a run to $6,500. Yet when it reached $5,700, he recommended selling because of a technical "non-confirmation."
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Here we go again.. We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research. Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019″ . We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.
On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”. Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future. Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Eurosceptics Gained Seats in the EU. Will Gold Shine Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
More than 200 million people in 28 nations voted in the second-largest democratic elections in the world. What interesting information can we glean from their vote – which way the wind blows now? Crucially, how does it reflect on gold?
Populists and Greens Gain Seats in the EU Parliament
People across the European Union have voted for in the European Parliament elections. Turnout was 50.5 percent, the highest level in 20 years. Last time, it stood just 42.6 percent. However, despite high turnout – which usually supports mainstream, big parties – the two biggest voting blocs have lost their majority in the European Parliament. The centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats will remain the two largest blocs, but they lost 74 seats. They had 403 of the 751 seats in the EU parliament, now they will have just 329 seats.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Seasonal Dysfunction: Why Generations of Gold and Silver Investors Are Having Such Difficulty / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger discusses the demotivating effects of current market trends. With great apology, I am late with this week's missive largely due to the arrival of boating season and the fierce need to secure a new vehicle, which should have taken (only) two days but didn't. Having arrived at the marina on Friday evening, I expected a rather smooth transition as it was the first year in four that I asked our local service fellow to do all of the end-of-year maintenance, instead of me draining the lines and winterizing the water tank and changing the engine oil and all of those things I loved to do in my 40s but that have become a royal pain in the ass twenty years later. Call it "geezer-itus" or "baby-boomer angst," I agreed to let the local marina service group do all those debilitating tasks and simply threw them the keys while shouting "See ya next spring!"
I fully expecting a boat functioning this past weekend in exactly the condition in which it was functioning last October. Well, with great deference to Mr. Murphy and that obnoxious law named after him, my lovely little Freshwater Pearl was a mess of the highest and most irritating order, floors most foul, upholstery seams ripped, and obvious dings and dots from the reentry-to-the-water exercise. However, what really set me off was that my most-excellent winch-powered dinghy caddy was nonfunctional, and after five hours with limited workspace, I removed what I thought was the faulty part.
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Patient Approach Remains Appropriate for Fed. How Will Gold React? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed released the minutes from its last meeting. What are the Fed’s views on the economy, global risks and inflation? What do the learnings imply for the US monetary policy and in turn, the gold market?
Minutes Show That FOMC Members Are Still Patient
The minutes from the May FOMC meeting show that the Fed is still patient. The downside risks for the global economy diminished and the financial conditions improved. As a result, the US central bank decided to keep its patient approach to the monetary policy in place:
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Technical Analyst: Gold Price Weakness Should Be Short Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and explains why he believes gold will turn higher later in the summer. Gold and silver dropping back again late last week had investors in the precious metals sector feeling despondent, especially as their fears were magnified by at least one analyst calling for gold to drop to the low $900s or even lower, which is normal when prices sink, but our charts are instead suggesting that gold and silver are close to completing giant bottoming patterns that started to form (in the case of gold) as far back as 2013.
We can best see gold's potential giant base pattern on a 10-year chart. It can be described as a complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom or as a Saucer, and is best considered to be both, or perhaps as a hybrid having the characteristics of both patterns. In any event, as we can see on this chart, it appears to be drawing close to breaking out of it, which will be a very big deal if it happens, because a base pattern of this magnitude can support a massive bull market. As for timing it could take several months and it is most likely to happen during gold's seasonally strong period from July through September. To maintain the bullish case it must stay above the Saucer boundary.
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Silver Price Looking Weaker than Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and finds that it looks "considerably weaker than gold."Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and finds that it looks "considerably weaker than gold."
Silver looks considerably weaker than gold, although that is normal at this stage in the cycle. It is still considered likely that it is forming a Double Bottom with its lows of late 2015, and if so then the support at those lows should hold.
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Thursday, May 23, 2019
Gold Demand Rose 7% in Q1 2019. A Launching Pad Higher for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In May, the WGC published a new edition of its quarterly report on gold demand. It features interesting data about the changes in gold demand and supply. What does the Gold Demand Trends Q1 2019 say about the gold market in the first quarter of the year? How will its conclusions be reflected going forward in the gold price?
WGC Publishes Report on Gold in Q1 2019
According to the newest WGC data, the supply of gold was virtually unchanged (modest growth in mine production and recycling were offset by a decline in hedging), while the gold demand rose 7 percent year-over year to 1,053.3 tons in the first quarter of 2019.
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Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Gold’s Exciting Boredom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The last few trading days in gold were quite interesting, but overall gold has been a quite boring market in the last couple of months. Gold’s volatility index dropped to new lows as the current back and forth movement is just a small part of the same kind of movement on a broader scale. It’s more of the same. And when gold’s volatility gets very low, interesting things tend to happen next over 80% of the time. In other words, the situation in gold is now so boring that it’s a signal on its own. In today’s analysis, we’ll dig into details.
It’s time for gold’s boring, yet effective signal.
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Monday, May 20, 2019
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
“Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic framework that says monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S., U.K., Japan and Canada are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending. In other words, such governments do not need taxes or borrowing for spending since they can print as much as they need and are the monopoly issuers of the currency.” Investopedia
Of course governments are not ‘constrained’ by revenues. They have always been able to “print as much as they need”.
Modern Monetary Theory is not ‘modern’. Far from it.
In the late eighteenth century, France was deeply in debt. A general lack of capital and confidence had taken its toll and the economy was lacking in signs of activity. Growth was stagnant.
The conditions were such that it would be reasonable to expect a return to better times without interference by government. Unfortunately, that would require patience and restraint by the politicians. Most politicians cannot resist the cries of “do something”. Even if the cries are non-existent, the government will hear them.
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Saturday, May 18, 2019
What Does the New Fed’s Regime Imply for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed promised that the quantitative easing would be only temporary and that it would reduce its ballooned balance sheet to the pre-crisis level. Now, as the Fed adopted an interest targeting with ample-reserves, we know that this is not going to happen. We invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s regime and find out how it works and what it implies for the US monetary policy and the precious metals.
The discussion about the US monetary policy concentrates on the changes in the interest rates and Fed’s balance sheet. But what is also very important is how the US central bank implements its monetary policy, especially that in recent years the Fed has started operating in a new monetary policy implementation regime. Let’s analyze that change and its implications for the economy and the gold market.
Before the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers, life was simple. And the economic textbooks adequately described how the US central bank conducted the monetary policy. In short, the FOMC set a target for the federal funds rate and reached that target through small purchases and sales of securities in the open market. The commercial banks had to hold some reserve balances to meet the reserve requirements. Banks who lacked these reserves, borrowed them in the federal funds market from banks who had excess liquidity. As the reserves were scarce, the Fed could affect the level of the federal funds rate and move it to the target level through changes in the supply of reserves, known as open market operations. For example, when the Fed observed that the market rate is above the target, it purchased the government bonds adding reserve balances to the banking system and creating downward pressure on the market rate.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Where Next For Gold After Touching the $1,300 Mark? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Monday, the price of gold has briefly jumped above $1,300. For the next two days, the yellow metal has been holding near that important psychological level, although it failed to rally subsequently. Let’s take a look at the trigger(s) of the upward move. The reaction of the gold market over the following days is pretty telling...
China Strikes Back
It has been a hot week! Indeed, just look at the chart below. As you can see, the price of the yellow metal leaped to $1,300 on Monday, even surpassing briefly that key level. What happened exactly?
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Although most of the precious metals sector has trended lower in recent months, Gold has held up well. It and the other, weaker components of precious metals got a boost on Monday when China retaliated with tariffs of its own.
There has been little follow through since.
This begs the question, will a trade war lead to a new bull market in precious metals?
The short answer is yes if it leads to a downturn and Fed rate cuts.
Rate cuts coupled with higher inflation due to the tariffs is a very bullish combination for precious metals.
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Today I would like to update some ratio combo charts which may give us a sense of the bigger picture. Its like putting the pieces of a puzzle together where the small pieces don’t look like much by themselves but when they’re all added together it paints a clear picture. These ratio combo charts are just a piece of the puzzle that may add some clarity to some of the individual sectors.
Lets start with the TIP:TLT ratio chart in black with the TLT in red, which I use for the inflation/deflation debate. Most investors have their own individual stocks they like to look at in trying to answer the age old question, are we in an inflationary or deflationary cycle? When the ratio in black is rising it shows signs of inflation and when it’s falling deflation becomes possible.
On the left hand side of the chart you can see how the ratio in black topped out while the TLT was bottoming in 2011. Also at the bottom of the chart I have added the GDX and the CRB index with the 30 week ema which also topped out in 2011. Since the 2011 high the main trend has been down for the ratio chart in black which shows deflation. In July of 2016 both the ratio and the TLT topped out beginning a consolidation phase that would last for about 2 1/2 years with each forming a triangle consolidation pattern. In November of 2018 both broke out of their respective triangles signaling that we may see some deflation in our future. Again, at the bottom of the chart you can see the CRB index along with the GDX are currently trading below their 30 week ema which is not the end of the world but short term negative. The bottom line is that as long as the ratio in black keeps falling the odds favor a possible deflationary event maybe in the cards in the future.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Gold Mind Reader's Guide to the Global Markets Galaxy: 'Surreal' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on the effects of Twitter and political maneuvers on the markets, and specifically on a favorite gold explorer.
I have a confession to make: There are no free markets anymore; there are only interventions. Of course, I bow to Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) cofounder Chris Powell, who coined that brilliant phrase a few years ago, because it was certainly my exposure to GATA in 2005 that changed my perception of the insidious role of the bullion banks in controlling price and sentiment.
That, in fact, has since been expanded to include not just gold and silver but LIBOR, Fed funds, corporate bonds and, finally, stocks. The delivery method used to be one of the hired mouthpieces on CNBC, like former reporters Charlie Gasparino or Maria Bartiromo, but both have moved on and were replaced not by reporters with a "scoop," but rather central bank governors themselves. This has been the case for most of the pre- and post-global financial crisis period—up until the election of the current president, who has, along with several cabinet members such as Larry Kudlow and Smilin' Stevie Mnuchin, discovered that sending out messages to either roil or calm markets is best carried out via Twitter.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
Our Long-Anticipated Gold Momentum Rally Begins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely. We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months. Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall. The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.
We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves. In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place. The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team. Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Will the Transitory Inflation Turn into a Tailwind for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Chair Powell claims that subdued inflation is caused by transitory factors. Does the recent data confirms his views? And just how transitory is the new tariff rate on $200bn Chinese imports? Will we see a creep higher in inflation about to lift the gold prices?
CPI Edges Up
At the post-FOMC press conference in May, Jerome Powell said that some transitory factors could be responsible for muted inflationary pressure. The latest data seems to support his view that the recent slowdown in inflation was temporary.
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