Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Will Stephen Moore Make Gold Great Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last month, Trump said that he considered Herman Cain and Stephen Moore as his picks to the Federal Reserve Board. As the former had withdrawn his name from consideration, the focus shifted to the latter. Who is Mr. Moore exactly and what would his nomination imply for the gold market?
Who Are You, Mr. Moore?
There are still two vacancies at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. It’s possible that Stephen Moore will fill one gap, which has provoked great controversy. President Trump has not officially nominated him yet, but the White House supports Moore for a seat on the Board, as Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, has recently reaffirmed.
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006. The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who "kept the faith," before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.
Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, "everyone knew" it was going to $100.
A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Spring Has Arrived. Will Gold also Bloom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recent positive news suggest the US economy spring revival. But what about gold? Will it blossom? Will the gold love trade take reins from gold as a safe haven play?
Retail Sales Surge
Last week, the government has released its latest report on the retail sector. The retail sales jumped 1.6 percent in March, the best results since September 2017, as one can see in the chart below. The change was above expectations (the economists polled by MarketWatch forecasted sales to climb 1.1 percent) and it was solid (0.9 percent) even if we set gas and autos aside.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The downside potential in precious metals discussed last week is playing out as Gold and gold stocks have broken down technically.
The global economy appears to be firming and that is evidenced by a sustained rebound in global equity markets.
As a result, the potential for a rate cut which pushed precious metals higher is now unwinding. That has caused the breakdown in precious metals and there is more unwinding to go.
We have trumpeted the need (in precious metals) for a rate cut as a fundamental catalyst for the next bull market. But there is another scenario that plays well for Gold.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Silver’s Next Big Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Eight years ago this month, silver started its “next big move”. And that move continues today. It is awesome to behold. See the chart (ten-year history of silver prices) below…
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.
Not really.
Certain securities have high kurtosis. That is where out-of-the ordinary returns (larger or smaller) occur more frequently than the normal distribution predicts.
Of course, nobody who is stable and balanced puts 100% of their assets into something which has the possibility of extreme returns.
But risk 90 cents for the possibility of making 10 bucks? All day long.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019. Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.
Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019. You can read our updated post here.
This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019. Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the fundamentals for gold, his company's funds and a handful of companies on his radar screen. Streetwise Reports: Since the beginning of the year, gold has been trading fairly narrowly in the $1,300 range. What are some of the macro factors working behind this and how do you believe they'll affect the price moving forward?
Frank Holmes: When we look at macro factors at U.S. Global—and we write about them every month, in particular the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—we try to take this complexity and simplify it by dividing it into big chunks.
The first is commodities; 50% of all commodity demand is China, so China is very, very important. When you add the populations of China and India—"Chindia"—you get 40% of the world's population. That's a lot of food. That's a lot of clothes. That's a lot of airplanes they'll be buying for India.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking. Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely. That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios. But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago. Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over.
The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”. The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”. The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania. At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had only edged up 1.2% over the past 14.5 months. That’s not parabolic.
The closest thing to a mania seen in recent years was the SPX’s 18.4% surge over just 5.3 months that led into its initial January 2018 peak. Traders were ecstatic about Republicans’ coming major corporate tax cuts, and aggressively piled into stocks. While euphoria accompanies manias, it is entirely different. It is simply “a strong feeling of happiness, confidence, or well-being”. That psychology is universal today.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
Gold UUP & HUI Combo Chart…Now is Not the Time to be Complacent / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
On Tuesday of this week I posted this combo chart showing the possible small blue flag forming on the UUP ( US Dollar). This morning the price action gapped above the top rail and is now approaching the top rail of the rising wedge formation. The sixth reversal point will be completed when the top rail is hit. This is where it’s getting interesting. Many investors believe the US dollar is going to go down or collapse which could be the case. On the other hand what if the US dollar breaks out above the top rail of its August rising wedge?
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Friday, April 19, 2019
Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).
The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
The Notre Dame Fire: Lessons for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Monday’s fire of Notre Dame Cathedral shocked the world. Since then, the French, the Catholics, and the architecture and art lovers hadn’t been talking about anything else. The precious metals community was less disturbed – even though it turns out that gold investors can actually learn a lot from the Notre Dame’s fire.
We have visited Paris for the first time only a month ago. Maybe this is why the images of Notre Dame being consumed by fire have aroused our emotions, even though we are not connoisseurs of architecture. Luckily, the cathedral has survived and the scale of damages is not as grave as it first seemed.
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Gold Market Key Message from IMF / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the IMF, during which the latter organization released its fresh World Economic Outlook, has just ended. What are the takeaways for the gold market?
Stagnation or Acceleration after the Slowdown?
In Thursday’s Gold News Monitor, we pointed out that the IMF significantly cut outlook for the Eurozone’s economic growth this year from 1.6 to 1.3 percent. But what about other economies? The IMF forecasts now 2.3 percent rise in the American GDP, 0.2 percentage point slower than it was projected in January. Global growth is now projected to be 3.3 percent, a downward revision from the 3.5 percent forecasted three months earlier. After such cuts in world economic outlook, gold should shine, shouldn’t it?
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Three Rules for Making a Winning Investment in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The questions first-time precious metals buyers ask most often are "what should I buy?" and "how do I get started?" We have covered these questions many times over the years, but they are worth reconsidering from time to time.
The very first rule of precious metals investing is to avoid collectible coins and buy low-premium bullion (non-collectible) products instead. Well, to be precise, it is actually those many shady rare coin dealers one needs to avoid.
The dealers to avoid are usually the ones heavily marketing on TV and radio using celebrity spokesmen, looking for inexperienced buyers. They know what buttons to push. The ads talk a lot about real issues – concerns such as the massive federal debt and the potential for U.S. dollar depreciation to wipe out savings and wealth.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a big surprise. The dovish surprise. In March, Powell doubled down on its accommodative stance. Does he know something we are not aware of? We invite you to read our today’s article about the recent Fed’s U-turn and find out whether it will support the gold prices.
Three months can make a big difference! In December 2018, the Fed raised the federal funds rate and signaled another two hikes in 2019 and further one in 2020. Powell also reaffirmed that the Fed would continue to unwind its balance sheet, by up to $50 billion per month, and he sounded very hawkish. But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting at the end of January, he sounded much softer, announcing that the Fed would pause its interest rate hikes and end its balance sheet normalization this year. But in March, Powell doubled down on its dovish stance, signaling no hikes in 2019 and just one hike in 2020. The FOMC also announced that the quantitative tightening will end in September, after tapering its pace in May. What caused the Fed’s U-turn?
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors joins me to update us on some of the best value propositions he sees in the markets. He also reveals why he’s very bullish on the metals right now and why he expects the next leg higher to happen in the blink of an eye. Don’t miss another wonderful conversation with the man the Mining Journal named America’s Best Fund Manager, Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets are struggling to gain ground as gold prices continue to oscillate around the $1,300 level. For a 7th straight week, gold traded into or out of $1,300 per ounce. Earlier in the week, gold climbed above that key level but got pulled back below it Thursday on heavy selling.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
MMT is a spectacularly Dem idea / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Economists are good for one thing, and that is creating theories. The trouble is, those theories are often wrong. This is why economics is often called “the dismal science”. Such is the case with the latest economic soup-de-jour, Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT for short.
In this article we take a deep dive into MMT: What is it? Who’s behind it or against it, whether it could work, and what it would mean for gold.
What is MMT?
Modern Monetary Theory is a new way of approaching the US federal budget that is both unconventional and absurd. It posits that rather than obsessing about how large the debt has grown (over $2 trillion) and the ongoing annual deficits that fuel debt, we should focus on spending, specifically, how the government can target certain spending programs that will cause minimal inflation. Fiscal policy on steroids is, according to its proponents, to be the new engine of US growth and prosperity.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
The 'Silver Lines' of Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: EWI
How to turn a simple chart into a near-term road map
On February 20, Variety Magazine's "Film News Roundup" announced a new thriller coming to theaters near you: "The Silver Bear."
Funny enough, that same day, another kind of thriller was playing out in the theater of finance; its name, the Silver Bull!
The chart below captures the action: Since the start of 2019, silver prices had been on a tear, soaring to $14, $14.50, $15, $15.50 and then $16 per ounce in late February in a white-hot winning streak that has outperformed even gold.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
Gold and Silver Still on the Road to a Low Risk Setup / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…
Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.
The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
The Gold Market Right After Super Wednesday / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Super Wednesday is behind us! The masters of monetary policy have revealed their cards. The Fed released the fresh minutes, the ECB held its monetary policy meeting, while the Brexit was postponed again. How will all these play out in the gold market?
Minutes Show Patience among the FOMC Members
The minutes from the pivotal FOMC meeting show that the Fed saw the first-quarter economic slowdown as transitory and that the real GDP growth would bounce back solidly in the second quarter. Although the yield curve inverted for a while, the central bankers noted that the unusually low level of term premiums in longer-term interest rates has made the yield curve a less reliable economic indicator.
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