Category: Stock Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, May 25, 2018
Stock Market Distribution Pattern Revealed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures were positive overnight until 6:45 am, when the Commercials weighed in. I am illustrating a probable way the Commercials went from -132,091 short contracts on January 22 to -511,373 short contracts last Monday. It has been happening gradually over the past two months since the markets have been thin and getting thinner at each rally.
You may be wondering how over $8 billion went into the stock market last week, yet the entire week was a loss. It appears to be happening again this week. The reason is that, while the market isn’t performing as it had, there is still a fear of missing out (FOMO) of the next rally. Wall Street and the media are still sending out glowing reports about the next rally.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Technical Analysis Confirms Stock Market SPX Support Level / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week presented some interesting price rotation after an early upside breakout Sunday night. The Asian markets opened up Sunday night with the ES, NQ and YM nearly 1% higher this week. This upside breakout resulted in a clear upside trend channel breakout that our researchers believe will continue to prompt higher price legs overall. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., have issued a number of research posts over the past few weeks showing our analysis and the upside potential in the markets that should take place over the next few weeks.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
Stock Market Higher Again, but Still No Breakout / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were gaining on Wednesday following lower opening of the trading session. Is this an upward reversal or just another move up within two-week-long consolidation? Bulls are happier today, but there are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.2-0.6% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment reversed following a lower open. The S&P 500 index got close to its recent local highs and it currently trades 4.9% below January’s 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%, as it was relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday.
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Thursday, May 24, 2018
Study: Slowing Global Economic Growth IS NOT Bearish for U.S. Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
2017 was the year of synchronized global economic growth. Almost all major economies around the world saw an upswing in economic growth. As you probably already know, 2018 is turning out to be a different story. Global synchronized economic growth is over for now.
- The U.S. economy continues to grow at a healthy, unabated pace.
- Other developed and developing economies are seeing a small decrease in economic growth.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Study: A Rising and Strong U.S. Dollar Isn’t Consistently Bearish for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Investors and traders are susceptible to recency bias, which means that they emphasis recent observations over those that occurred in the past.
The U.S. Dollar has been rising recently, which reminds some investors of the 2014-2015 USD spike that led to a “significant correction” for the U.S. stock market in 2015-2016.
For starters, it’s important to put things into perspective. The U.S. Dollar’s recent “surge” is more like a small rally.
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Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Upside DOW Stock Market Breakout May Be Just the Beginning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
At this point, all we can say is “Wow – did you see that breakout?”. If you have been following our analysis, you already know we’ve been predicting this upside price move for over 4 weeks with our specialized price modeling systems, cycle analysis models and other specialized trading tools. Last weekend, we posted very detailed analysis of the Elliot Wave and Fibonacci price levels that suggest we could see another upside price move that no one is expecting.
Monday, May 21, 2018
Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There is nothing more exciting to us than reading the price action of the charts to see what will happen in the future. It becomes even more exciting when we find something that everyone else seems to have missed. Right now, traders need to pay attention to our research because we believe we have correctly identified a breakout pattern that is setting up in the US majors – and everyone seems to have missed it.
Recently, our research team began a quest to properly identify the Elliot Wave structure of the US majors in relation to the recent price congestion after the February 2018 price collapse. You can read our earlier research post to better understand our conclusions.
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Monday, May 21, 2018
Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 is likely to continue until about early June.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 21, 2018
Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Investors and traders love to fixate on the absolute level of interest rates.
- “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 3%”.
- “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 3.25%”.
- “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 4%”.
- “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 4.5%”.
Instead, investors and traders should focus on how interest rates are impacting various aspects of the economy right now. Focus on the RELATIVE relationship.
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Sunday, May 20, 2018
US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, an interesting concept was discussed among our research team – a very interesting concept about the markets. As many of you know, part of the process or research is to test conclusions that may lie outside common thinking. While we were discussing the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave structures of the US market using longer-term charts, one item kept intriguing our research team. This one item could change everything in terms of how we are thinking about the US markets and Global markets.
Almost everyone knows that Elliot Wave (EW) theory consists of Five Waves to complete a major EW Cycle. The most common form of EW price cycles is A, C & E (or 1, 3 & 5) waves advancing and B & D (or 2 & 4) waves declining for an uptrend.
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Sunday, May 20, 2018
US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
To be clear: the Medium-Long Term Model currently states that:
- The S&P 500 (U.S. stock market) is still in a bull market.
- This 11.8% “small correction” won’t turn into a “significant correction”. Hence the stock market’s medium term downside is limited.
The Medium-Long Term Model predicts “significant corrections” based on a set of conditions. When none of those conditions are met (i.e. right now), it is highly unlikely for a “small correction” to turn into a “significant correction”. This means that the stock market will eventually make a new high given enough time.
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Saturday, May 19, 2018
Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
In light of earnings reactions in the Semiconductor Equipment sector, it’s time for an update of a theme we have had in play since November, 2017
The canary is no longer chirping in a healthy manner and the economy’s coal mine has a toxic gas leak. While the recent Lam Research (LRCX) earnings report was pretty good and there were positive aspects to that of Applied Materials (AMAT), these highly cyclical companies that have been at the front end of the entire economic cycle that had its beginnings in 2013 are showing signs of wear.
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Friday, May 18, 2018
Stock Market Indexes Fill Tuesday Price Gap Now Where? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The 30-minute chart price pattern with a large gap down in price on Tuesday morning created what we call a “Gap Window”. Almost all gaps in the SP500 get filled eventually, and both the top and bottom areas of a gap window become short-term resistance or support.
A three-wave a-b-c correction is generally what causes stop orders to be run, panic selling, and creates a pivot low. This is displayed with a red line on the chart.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
What Happens Next When Small Cap (Russell) Leads the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Small cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) made a new all-time HIGH yesterday even though mid/large cap stocks (S&P 500) are still lagging. The S&P is still 5% below its all-time high.
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
VIX Cycles Point to Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we authored an article about Fibonacci price levels in which we referred to a term called “Fibonacci Price Ladders”. This is our own term, as far as we know, and we used it as a way to attempt to explain how price operates within the Fibonacci theory. Our objective was to allow the reader to think of a standard ladder and how each ladder rung allows the climber to advance (move up) or decline (move down) using the ladder. We hope it helped all of our readers to better understand the concept of how price rotates within a trend to establish longer-term price trends.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Our Next Stock Market Dow Fibonacci Price Targets – Get Ready! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We can’t believe how so many people did not see this upside price swing setting up over the past few weeks. The research we conducted over the past few months was showing us a very clear picture that the US markets would advance in a dramatic format after settling a price bottom after the early February price drop. We would like to remind our readers to reference this link to see how we called this move months (published January 19, 2018) in advance. To quote our earlier work before the markets made all these moves…
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Stock Futures Are on a Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are sliding as low as 2720.50 this morning, potentially breaking beneath the rally trendline at 2725.00. This gives the SPX an aggressive sell signal that will await confirmation from the VIX and NYSE Hi-Lo Index. Aggressive signals are subject to drawdowns, so take due care with any new positions.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Stock Market Study: What Happens Next when Dow Goes Up 8 Days in a Row / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone up 8 days in a row (using CLOSE $). What’s unusual is that this is happening before the Dow has hit a new all-time high. These “up 8 consecutive days” events usually happen when the stock market is making new highs.
Here are the historical cases in which the Dow closed higher 8 days in a row, and what happened next to the stock market (Dow and S&P 500).
*This is a rather common event, so we’re only looking at the historical cases in this current bull market, which began in March 2009.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Fibonacci Price Ladder Points to Higher Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We continue to appreciate the positive and supportive comments we are receiving from our followers and members. We can’t tell you how pleased we are that all of you are enjoying our efforts to provide you with the best market research and analysis we can offer. Today, we are highlighting some important Fibonacci price levels and how they should continue to drive price action over the next 3~10 days or so. Let’s get started.
This first Daily ES chart shows a pretty big picture of the Fibonacci price legs (the Fibonacci price “ladder” as we will refer to it in this article) and how these legs work in tandem with other types of support and resistance channels/level as price expands or contracts within new trends. As you probably remember, one of the key factors to understanding Fibonacci price theory is that “price MUST attempt to establish new highs or lows at all times”. Therefore, as we can see by recent price action, new price highs have been reached. This is a clear indication that a new bullish trend is in place and we should now be searching to key levels to enter new trades.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
SPX futures are higher, but so is VIX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
SPX futures are marginally higher. It’s hard to say whether the trendline gives way or not this morning.
ZeroHedge reports, “S&P futures are higher, maintaining overnight gains as most Asian markets advance with the MSCI Asia Pacific index 0.5% higher, as sentiment was boosted by President Trump unexpected reversal on China telecom giant ZTE over the weekend when in a Sunday morning tweet, Trump vowed to get the Chinese telco back to business in a surprising policy U-turn after the company announced a halt to major operating activities following a US 7-year supply ban order.
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