Category: Stock Markets 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
SPX Hits Triple Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Instead of 5 waves, SPX is finishing off Wave [c] as an Ending Diagonal, which is a bit more complex. However, as of 3:00 it has encountered a trifecta of probable resistances. The first is Wave (v) of [c] equals Wave (i) of [c] at 2079.60. The second is the 50% Fib retracement level at 2079.30. The third is Short-term resistance at 2081.06, just 8 ticks above the high made at 3:03 pm at 2080.99.
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Move Down - Will Downtrend Reverse? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,090 and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, March 16, 2015
Stock Market Pause or Short-term Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 15, 2015
Stock Market Still Not Happy...Monthly Charts Troubling..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
Overheard in Jack's Trading Room: "I have only been a member for a few months, but have learned so much from you and all the other quality members on this site. The honesty, integrity and leadership you bring to this service is hard to find these days." -- "Cowgirl" - 3/13/15
And that doesn't mean we won't try much higher again. If a market is topping it is EXTREMELY unusual to not test the old highs, not only once, but potentially three or four times before trying to sell without coming back up. Like gold years ago, it took four or five attempts for the bubble to pop. The bulls would not give up the ship easily. They were trained to see higher prices. They were trained to buy pullbacks. It took many, many months for the market to top. Now it is true that we are dealing with unprecedented levels of froth, and it is true that the monthly charts are deathly, so it doesn't have to keep trying back up. But that is normal protocol, so we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt that it won't be any different this time around.
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Sunday, March 15, 2015
Why The Stock Market Must Drop Next Week! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
In the previous two articles, I explained that I have been looking for a pull back in the markets. Now with new data, I can boldly say when I believe the bottom will occur and the best odds of a price target on the S&P 500. The answers lie in the chart below. Using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, I have determined a price of S&P 500 1957/58 and a date of March 20-23. I can also say with near exactness that we should fall nearly 4.3% on the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 15, 2015
US Stock Market Waiting on the USD / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started off at SPX 2071 and rallied to 2083 on Monday. Then a Tuesday gap down opening carried the SPX to 2040 by Wednesday. Thursday’s gap up opening and rally to SPX 2066, was nearly completely reversed on Friday’s gap down opening. A choppy week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.40%, and the DJ World index lost 1.40%. On the economic front reports came in mixed. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export prices, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the treasury deficit improved. On the downtick: retail sales, the PPI, import prices, consumer sentiment, and the MMIS. Next week is the FOMC meeting, plus Industrial production, reports on Housing, and Options expiration.
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Sorry But This Is Not 1997 for the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sy_Harding
Several months ago I wrote of how super bull markets that last nine or ten years have been once in a generation situations, the last ones being those of the 1920’s and the 1990’s, but that there were enough similarities to 1997 in the current bull market that it could possibly make it into that category.
In 1997, the 1990’s bull market had also been underway for six years, which had the market already overvalued by traditional measurements. However, investors were convinced it was under the protection of the Fed and the ‘Greenspan Put’, and the bull market accelerated further to the upside (into what became the infamous 2000 bubble).
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Friday, March 13, 2015
Pi Day - Largest Reversal in Stock Market History / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Welcome to Pi day, the unluckiest day in the stock market. This is the date of largest reversal in stock market history. This separates the market from a regular “buy the dip” opportunity to “sell the rally,” or better yet, “Get out of Dodge.”
Actually, Pi day is Sunday, so I am taking some liberty here, since the markets aren’t open over the weekend. Notice the symmetry here in the monthly chart. Super Cycle Wave V took exactly 6.02 years, which is 314.16 weeks. That same with Super Cycle Wave b.
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Friday, March 13, 2015
The Stock Market Bull is Charging Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE - After several years, the Federal Reserve has passed the QE baton to the European Central Bank (ECB) and this should extend the ongoing bull-market in common stocks. You will recall that throughout last year, we were expecting the ECB to unleash a full-scale bond buying program and Mr. Draghi's recent decision has validated our view.
If our assessment is correct, the ongoing QE initiative will assist common stocks and probably ensure the continuation of the primary uptrend until at least September 2016. At that point, if the ECB decides to extend its bond buying program, the bull-market may get another lease of life!
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Thursday, March 12, 2015
Stock Market Staying Mostly Oversold.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
When playing this very silly game you look for changes from the trend that was in place. We have spent a long time watching just about every attempt at selling being bought up quite rapidly. The bears banging their heads in frustration as the market refused to sell. It spent a long time basing but then made a final leg higher that has now seemingly come to an end. Four gap downs still open and counting. No gap ups to counter. The technical damage quite serious for the bulls to have to overcome.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Stock Market Low Hybrid Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ed_Carlson
The late technician George Lindsay wrote that his concept of Middle Sections was his first original idea on the stock market and was his best. He called it his "prize way of calculating time in the market". Using them in combination with his other unique concepts enabled him to forecast the highs and lows of bull and bear markets (See George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing, SeattleTA Press, 2012).
My own work with middle sections has evolved into what I call a "Hybrid Lindsay" forecast. It is a combination of Lindsay's middle section model and short-term intervals combined with traditional cycle analysis.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Stock Market Short-Term Rally Off Of Oversold...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
We came in to today with the short-term, sixty-minutes charts mostly oversold. Barely above 70 RSI on the Nasdaq and small-caps stocks, but in the mid-twenties on the RSI's on the S&P 500 and Dow. Bull markets don't stay oversold for too long, unless a more severe selling is upon us. That has yet to show its hand, thus, no shock that we saw the market head higher slowly, but surely, throughout much of the day. No great thrust, but a nice move upward throughout most of the day. By the time the day was over those short-term index charts were no longer oversold.
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Monday, March 09, 2015
Stock Market Internals Deteriorating Despite the Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to be nearing the end of its retracement and may have one more probe to 2080.00 before turning down.
Monday, March 09, 2015
Stock Market Pull Back Expected: What's Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week I wrote that I believed that the 20 week cycle low would take the S&P 500 to near 2008/09 by March 6. We closed Friday at 2071 and look likely to go lower into next week. As it stands now, I believe I was 4 trading days off in my calculations. The ideal 100 trading day low is due Thursday March 12 right on the Bradley turn (we never know whether a "Bradley Siderograph" turn will be a high or low). Seldom is the 100 trading day cycle low ideal either because it has a tolerance of about 15% either way.
Monday, March 09, 2015
Stock Market Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an intermediate top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 08, 2015
Stocks, the Fed and the 'Real Economy' / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jesse
An astute patron who shall only be identified as il greco asked a particularly interesting question at the tail end of a long email today.
Here is my answer.
I do not believe that the Fed has 'given up' on the real economy.
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Sunday, March 08, 2015
Strong Economy But the Stock Market Can Still Crash Anyway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
A growing economy is not necessarily bullish -- see for yourself
Editor's note: You'll find a text version of this story below the video.
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Saturday, March 07, 2015
Stock Market Pullback Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2105. After a rally to SPX 2118 on Monday the market had gap down openings three of the next four trading days. By late Friday the SPX had traded down to 2067, then ended the week at 2071. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.55%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%, and the DJ World index lost 1.70%. Economic reports for the week were slightly biased to the negative again. On the uptick: personal income, the PCE, auto sales, ISM services, payrolls, plus the unemployment rate and trade deficit improved. On the downtick: personal spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, the ADP, factory orders, consumer credit, the WLEI, the monetary base, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on Retail sales, the PPI and Consumer sentiment.
Saturday, March 07, 2015
Hot Jobs...Fear Of Rate Hikes... Hits Stock Market Hard..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
It was a very interesting day for the stock, market because it received the type of great news no one wanted to hear. Sometimes good news is not good for your bottom line. It's nice to see a lot of jobs added, well above what was expected. While it is true that many of the jobs added were of the lower paying type, it was still good to see anything on the positive side of job creation. Now the problem. Too many new jobs equates to a few raising rates. The market doesn't want any part of that. It doesn't want folks to have alternative places to go with their dollars. Then real question ultimately will be whether this is the beginning of a rate hike cycle. A full cycle or will it be a onetime situation with the Fed needing a lot more information before making hikes more of a regularity. She is a dove and won't shock the market, but in the end it's not about her.
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Saturday, March 07, 2015
SPX Stocks Index Closes at the Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This is beyond my expectation.
SPX did not bounce into the close. At the end of the day it challenged Intermediate-term support at 2069.17. This may be the end of sub-Minute Wave (i) of Minute Wave [iii]. There were a lot of squiggles at the end, so it is difficult to say whether it completed the Wave (ii) retracement or not. If so, it was severely truncated.
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