Category: Stock Markets 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, October 09, 2015
Cycle Top Met in the SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The final surge in SPX hit Cycle Top resistance at 2013.51 where it appears to be repelled. A cross beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 1994.49 puts SPX back on a confirmed sell signal.
SPX has a new bearish profile with an Orthodox Broadening Top formation. A final peak that is lower than the second peak of the formation elevates the probability of a negative outcome to over 80%. Once SPX declines beneath the lower trendline the chances of meeting its proposed target is elevated to as high as 96%.
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Thursday, October 08, 2015
US Stocks: The [Trend]Line Between Bull and Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
Our FREE report shows you just how invaluable trendlines are for anticipating major reversals
Last weekend, I went on a road trip with a friend and her two young sons. The second we left the driveway, the older boy placed a rubber pool noodle in between him and his brother and established the most important ground rule of all sibling driving trips:
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Thursday, October 08, 2015
Stock Market Pessimism Still Very High.....Bulls Enjoying The Negativity Off The Lows... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
When markets get overly optimistic, meaning too many bulls, they have a tendency to struggle, even if it takes a while before they go down appreciably. See how the market did nothing most of last year except to move laterally. Then we had the strong and powerful move lower that took the S&P 500 down 14%. Now we're dealing with the opposite effect. The bull-bears spread now at minus 4.2%, which is off last week's minus 10% reading, but still below 0, which is very good news for the bulls. The Rydex bear fund is also at three-year highs, which shows you the bears are still quite aggressive, which is a negative for them, of course. The market has shown a few gap ups here over the past couple of days, and may now be headed for a lateral bull-flag type of set up.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Stock Market VERY IMPORTANT Turn Date / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It appears that I was closer to the truth than I had imagined when I said that yesterday’s (today’s) Pivot was more important than that on September 17. The Elliott Wave pattern shows today’s Intermediate Wave (B) as the orthodox retracement top, but not the high in the corrective formation. This is an irregular pattern and gives the message that SPX may be ready for a larger decline than previously imagined.
Wednesday, October 07, 2015
Is Another Historic Stock Market Collapse Just Around the Corner? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
This morning’s Premarket shows SPX challenging yesterday’s high. With corporate quarterly earnings reports beginning en masse before the open, there is no telling if SPX opens higher or not.
ZeroHedge reports that the first four out of four earnings reports have been disappointing.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Stock Market Turn Appears to Have Been Made / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX peaked at 10:00, as suggested this morning. I had suggested that last Thursday might be the peak, due to an indication of a Primary Pivot there. However, it was not in the dominant Cycle. Today was day 43 of the dominant Cycle, that is, the one beginning on August 24.
One of the reasons for much of the confusion up to the July 20 high was the lack of dominant Cycles. That is why I had emphasized the July 7 low as being a probable flash crash, which it wasn’t, because it originated on October 15, 2014. Now that we are getting sorted out, it may be easier to follow the next series of declines and rallies.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
SPX Finishing its Retracement this Morning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX Premarket has eased down, but not impulsively. This suggests another probe higher at the open. The estimated target may be between 2000.00 and 2004.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets."
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Stock Market European Surprise.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
One thing I've learned through the years is to expect the unexpected. The global-economic reports have been poor, and have been getting worse as time moves along. It doesn't matter what part of the globe we're speaking about, the news just keeps getting worse. Based on that reality, we've seen our markets struggle for quite some time now. Fundamentals are rising above fear. When you think about how intense fear is, it's pretty amazing that the bears can still win with poor fundamentals. That said, the unexpected good news hit out of nowhere, which is how it always occurs. The Euro Zone had their retail-sales report, and it came in better than expected, not only month over month, but year over year. The Euro Zone saw all of their markets rise on that news, and, in some cases, explosively so. There are so many shorts out there that it wouldn't take too much to get a decent rally.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Stocks Bear Market Apocalypse Imminent Crash Gets Nuked Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The last 2 months have been increasingly witnessing ever louder market calls for the beginnings of a new stocks bear market and this not just from the usual suspects, the perma bears who call every correction of the past 6+ years as marking the start of a bear market. Lately an increasing number of those who had managed to remain 'mostly' bullish in the face of a relentless stocks bull market have been increasingly coming out pronouncements of stocks now being in a bear market .
Monday, October 05, 2015
Positive Stock Market Expectations Following Last Week's Rebound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,900, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, October 05, 2015
Stock Market Correction Still in Force / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market?
Intermediate trend - SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, October 03, 2015
Stock Market Primary IV Still, or Primary V Underway? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
The week started at SPX 1931. After a gap down opening on Monday the market came within five points of retesting its August SPX 1867 low on Tuesday. Then the market gapped up Wednesday and Thursday hitting SPX 1927. On Friday the market gapped down to SPX 1894, then made a strong recovery and ended the week at 1951. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.00%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%, and the DJ World index gained 0.70%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: the PCE, consumer confidence, personal income/spending, the ADP index, construction spending and the WLEI. On the downtick: pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, factory orders, GDPn, monthly payrolls, plus weekly claims rose. Next week we get reports on the FOMC minutes and ISM services.
Saturday, October 03, 2015
Economic Free Fall....Pessimism Screaming Higher....No Rate Hike Coming Any Time Soon.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The market action had been better the last couple of days. Even with a very bad ISM Manufacturing Report number yesterday, the market was able to hang in rather well. Makes sense on some level, since there's that push-pull going on between pessimism and fundamentals. The market had hoped that we'd see a push higher off a solid jobs report this morning pre-market. Wasn't in the cards.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
SPX Stocks Bulls Struggle to Regain the Upper hand... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to have formed either a Broadening Wedge (Target ~ 1522.00) or an Orthodox Broadening formation (Target ~ 1458.00). SPX may ramp all the way to its Intermediate-term resistance at 1937.31 before rolling back over, should the second formation prevail. There are tremendous market forces at war with one another, but ultimately the trend wins.
Friday, October 02, 2015
The Two Faces of Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
Which one should you heed?
Volatility, volatility, volatility. It's all the financial world can talk about lately... and, well, for good reason. In the past few months, the world's stock markets have endured some of the most gut-wrenching price swings since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
But for many investors, it's still not clear what this volatility means for the status of the bull market in U.S. stocks.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Stock Market How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the Reagan presidency, there’s more money flowing out of emerging markets than there’s flowing in. That is for sure a watershed moment.
And no, that trend is not going to be reversed either anytime soon. Emerging economies, even if they wouldn’t include China -but they do-, have relied exclusively on selling ‘stuff’ to the rich world which combined cheap commodities with cheap labor, and now they see their customer base shrink rapidly just as they were preparing to harvest the big loot.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Stocks Bull Market - We Have Some Bad News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Casey_Research
By Justin Spittler
The stock market just finished a brutal third quarter…
The S&P 500 fell 8%...and so did the Dow and the NASDAQ. It was the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2011.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Stock Market Tinder Box / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately. As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.
We have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).
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Friday, October 02, 2015
Negative Jobs Report Sents SPX, TNX Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The best proxy for the Monthly Jobs Report is TNX, because bonds start trading around 8:15. As you can see, it had a horrible miss, only 142,000 new jobs reported in August. The consensus expectation was 215,000.
The CES Birth/Death Model report has just been updated, showing a loss of 34,000 fictitious jobs in September. This statistic is made up out of thin air. But the August payroll number has also been revised downward. It is possible that the US has seen negative job growth for the first time in memory.
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Thursday, October 01, 2015
Stock Market 180 in 50 Weeks. This is Different / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A lot has happened since that fateful October bottom in stocks, which was driven by a multitude of factors namely, market worries over end of Fed QE and escalating casualties from the Ebola virus. But those were only worries and not factual manifestations of data weakness. Today, the extended weakness in the world's biggest buyer of commodities, combined with the erosion of the "Gulf Nations' Put" as well as the decline in EM FX reserves is a de facto tightening from in and capital markets.