Category: Stock Markets 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Stocks Bear Markets, Recessions and the Bewildered Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Michael_Pento
A popular Wall Street myth is that bear markets are caused by recessions. The contention is as long as the economy isn't in a recession stock prices won't drop by more than 20 percent. And since the cheerleaders who dominate Wall Street never predict a recession, it should come as no surprise they never foresee the bear market that always precedes two negative quarters of GDP growth. The truth is Bear markets and recessions do not occur simultaneously, bear markets both predict and help engender a recession to occur.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market New Downtrend Or Some More Short-Term Sideways Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market Intermediate Downtrend (Phase II) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market?
Intermediate trend - SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 21, 2015
Stock Market NYSE A/D Line “Death Crossover” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Christopher_Quigley
Last month we wrote the following:
“The chart of the % of stocks above the 200 Price Moving Average (PMA) finally shows the 100 Daily Moving Average (white line) crossing the 200 DMA (green line). This is a technical “death-cross” The only indicator not in bearish agreement is the NYSE Advance/Decline line. When this indicator shows a similar 100/200 DMA crossover, I believe it will only be a matter of time, based on historic precedent, before an “official” bear market will be declared”.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
How We'll Capitalize on Fed Cowardice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: Markets delivered a resounding Bronx cheer to the Federal Reserve on Friday after that confederacy of dunces failed to raise interest rates at its highly anticipated, two-day September meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 290 points (1.74%) while the S&P 500 followed by 32 points (1.62%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 67 points (1.32%).
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Sunday, September 20, 2015
Stock Market Topped Thursday, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Last week, I predicted an important top for September 17 based on astrology. While I thought it would be a lower top, nonetheless, it was an important top caused by the FED: and as predicted, I said that they would not raise rates, but they did place something in the FED-speak that would cause the market to sell-off dramatically. That something was "no more QE". From late Thursday to late Friday, the SPX fell over 4%.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Stock Market Primary IV Preparing to End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild FOMC week. The market started the week at SPX 1961. After a pullback to SPX 1948 on Monday, the market rallied to 2004 just before the FED announcement. After they announced no change in the ZIRP the SPX hit 2008, dropped to 1988, rallied to 2021, then dropped to 1987, all within one hour. On Friday the market was greeted with a gap down opening and the SPX ended the week at 1958. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%, and the DJ World index was +0.20%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, the NAHB, building permits, leading indicators, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, and the WLEI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, Durable goods and more reports on Housing.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
The Fed Blows It.... Dangerous Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
As the Byrd's wrote a long, long time ago. There is a season, turn, turn, turn. The Fed had been on a long-term zero-policy rant, and refused to raise rates even a quarter of a percent due to the fears of a global slow down. The stock market fell in love with the idea of zero rates, since it meant there were few other places to use your dollars with the ability to make any real other dollars.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
Fed’s Vast Gold / Stock Market Impact / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Yesterday’s Fed decision was one of the most anticipated ever, with much potential to really change the global financial-market dynamics going forward. But thanks to the Fed’s incredible market distortions of recent years, Fed meetings spawning exceptional volatility is nothing new. Fed decisions’ impacts on gold and stocks have been vast. And this next tightening cycle should reverse their Fed-imparted directionality.
Before we get started, a big caveat is necessary. While this essay was published the morning after that Fed decision, I had no choice but to research and write this draft before yesterday’s momentous 2pm event! Producing one of these weekly essays takes a lot of time and effort, and even after writing 670 of them there was no possible way to start this process after the Fed and still make the publishing deadline.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
Stock Market Testing the Flags / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is testing the inside boundaries of its Bearish Flag. I have revised the Flag minimum target to reflect yesterday’s spike high. Should SPX break below its Flag formation on heavy volume today, the probability of a flash crash within the next week becomes elevated above 50%.
Friday, September 18, 2015
Halloween Came Early this Year on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Clif_Droke
The Federal Reserve guessing game ended Thursday after the FOMC made its decision on interest rate policy. The Fed left rates unchanged in a tip of the hat to investors who felt the economy was vulnerable to overseas weakness. This was what most on Wall Street wanted, although there was a sharp intraday reversal after the announcement (apparently a case of buy the rumor, sell the news).
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Stock Market Fed Decision Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
A colleague, Gary, called me yesterday to comment that this formation might have a better fit as a Flag or Pennant formation instead of a Triangle. A glance at the two-hour chart shows an upward tilt that would agree with that assessment. The Wave Structure also fits, whether a Minor Wave 4 or an Intermediate Wave (B), which is the alternate view.
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Thursday, September 17, 2015
The Talk of US Stock Market Crash Does Not Make Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Submissions
Nicholas Kitonyi writes: Over the last few weeks, there has been a lot of talk of a possible US market crash. This comes following a substantial decline across all the major US Indices and their associated ETFs which saw them drop by 6%-9% between late August and early September.
However, we have already witnessed significant resurgence in US markets over the last few days, which suggests that investors still remain optimistic.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Stock Market Short Interest Off The Charts...Fed On Deck.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
A new report came out this morning showing trader-short interest is at an all-time high. Nothing like fear to create a more bullish environment. The short interest here is at a greater level than at any time during the 2000-bear market or the 2009-bear market That's almost impossible to believe, but that's what the numbers are showing. Most folks know the rule of this crazy game with regards to following the herd. Never do it! If the masses get too bullish it's probably not a bad idea to start removing most of your long holdings. No different than when things get far too bearish. Right now the trading world is far too bearish, which tells me that over time it's more likely, though no guarantee, that we'll get through S&P 500 1993 before losing S&P 500 1867. Taking out 1993 would negate the bearish-bear flag pattern, and set things up more balanced between the two sides. Then it would be more about sentiment.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2015 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 15% drop in average stock prices during the past month has galvanised a growing number of bears to once more dig out ancient text book reasons for why this is the time for the stocks bear market to finally begin, and not only that but keep making definitive statements for the expectations for market crash's that always fail to materialise for the obvious reason that a crash is a panic event that can only at best be discerned no earlier than during the preceding day. Even then the probability would favour the market ending higher on the so called crash day because market crashes are NOT common events.
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
U.S. Stocks: End of the Complacent Era? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
Stock market bears have been conspicuously absent
August 20 was the third consecutive down day for the Dow Industrials as the index tumbled 358 points.
The U.S. stock market had managed to hover near record highs, even as other markets (oil, precious metals, housing) had long since fallen from old highs. The 34-year bull market in 30-year U.S. government bonds ended months ago.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Stock Market Crashing: Is it Time to Panic? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Sol_Palha
''Come to the edge,'' He said. They said, ''We are afraid.'' ''Come to the edge,'' He said. They came. He pushed them... and they flew.
Guillaume ApollinaireThe answer to this plain question should always be a resounding no: it never pays to give into panic. The smartest option is to derail this emotion before it gains any traction. Once fear takes over, the end is nigh.
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Stock Market Triangle within a Triangle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Keeping in mind that the Minor Waves of Intermediate Wave (1) are in an [a]-[b]-[c] form, I had wondered how the next Wave [b] would look. Here’s our answer. It appears to be yet another Triangle with a smaller degree throw-over Wave (e). There is no guarantee that it is finished yet. We may have confirmation when we see a five-wave [c] emerge out of the bottom of the triangle at 1954.00. Note the very light volume in this ramp. Volume should pick up substantially on the decline. This has a similar feel
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
China Stock Market on the Edge. TNX Rising / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
All eyes turn to china as the Shanghai Index sits on a ledge of support at 3000.00. As ZeroHedge comments, “What, however, is dawning right now on traders is that China has once again lost control of its market, and days after crushing index futures trading by hiking margins to unprecedented levels, the SHCOMP resumed its old acrobatics tumbling as much as 4.2% in final hour of trading, and dropping below 3,000 for the first time since Aug. 27, before closing 3.5% lower at 3,005.172.”
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
The Rollercoaster Journey of the Global Stock Markets Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Rodney_Johnson
As I walked through Lowe’s last weekend, I was struck by the presence of Halloween decorations. At the risk of sounding like a cranky old man, I couldn’t help but tell my wife: “It’s not even September yet!” And then I thought how 2015 seems to be flying by. Maybe I actually am a cranky, getting-old, man.I have the same take as I read through the financial papers. Things are moving at light speed. From crashing equity markets to falling commodity prices, there’s a lot to contemplate at one time.
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