Category: Stock Markets 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, October 01, 2015
Stock Market S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Richard_Shaw
Historical volatility projection suggests the range of probable S&P 500 prices from around 1750 to 2050 by year-end- Major trend indicators suggest high probability of prices ending in the lower half of the probability range
- GAAP P/E and forward operating P/E ratios reverting to 5-year and 10-year averages suggest prices in the 1700’s
- GAAP earnings have turned down and prices tend to follow
- But GAAP earnings yield relative to current and near-term prospective 10-year Treasury yield is supportive of current index price
Thursday, October 01, 2015
Stock Market Negative Expectations Once Again - Will It Break Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,810, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook is bullish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bullish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bullish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, October 01, 2015
Stock Market Closing the Books on September...Pessimism Extreme...Testing Weekly Support Lines.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
I thought, based on the markets behavior ending last Friday, that we'd see a bull-bear spread on the Investors-Intelligence survey of around minus -7% today when the new number was released. I wasn't pessimistic enough apparently as the number came in at -10.4%. With the action we saw in the market Monday and Tuesday it's actually quite possible we're now at lower levels on this measure. It goes to show you how fast things can unwind from froth to fear when all the leading froth stocks get completely annihilated, such as we've seen in the world of biotechs.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Stock Market Retracement May Have Run Its Course / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX met neckline resistance near 1912.00 and has been repelled near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 1912.35. Apparently there were a significant number of stops at 1910.00 that attracted the Algos.
The algos appear to be spinning their wheels at 1916.50, which may be the top of this retracement. Selling pressure appears to be settling in.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Stocks One More Crash Leg Down Into Mid October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Gary_Savage
Stocks should be getting close to a bounce out of the half cycle low, but there should still be one more crash leg down into mid October before the 7 year crash low is complete. The 200 week moving average is at roughly 1700. I would think that would be a minimum target with a maximum target at 1550.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015
What Could Reverse The Global Stock and Commodity Markets Decline? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Clif_Droke
Falling stock and commodity prices around the world are underscoring a change of fortunes for the global economy. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spreads, there is a growing sense among investors that the U.S. might be the next casualty of the global slowdown.
Economists have already begun questioning what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might be able to do to stem the financial market selling pressure. Weakness has been broad-based and is visible in stocks, commodities as well as high-yield corporate bonds. Since the first bear market of the new millennium, the Fed has played an outsized role as a stimulator of equity markets and the economy.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Are the Central Banks Attempting to Dam the Stock Market Waterfall? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The bounce to the hourly Cycle Bottom was spot-on. It remains to be seen whether there may be yet another bounce (Micro Wave c) to a higher position. I think not, but reserve the right to be wrong.
Today s day 8 of the decline from the Wave (B) peak. Unless there is some catalyst to speed things up, we may not see the decline end in 8.6 days (mid-day tomorrow). The next potential interval for a flash crash is 10.75 days, which would potentially give us a low on Friday (early afternoon).
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Stock Market It’s All Downhill From Here… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Ed_Carlson
…well, down anyway. An emissions scandal at VW (the world’s largest auto maker), the announcement from Caterpillar that it is laying off 10,000 workers, a 5,000% price increase in a 62-year-old drug, the resignation of the US Speaker of the House, and Janet Yellen reaffirming a rate hike before the end of the year… what’s not to be bullish about?!
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Stocks: Why Following the Crowd is Usually a Big Mistake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: EWI
Millionaires show poor market timing
We've seen it time and again: The investment crowd often hops aboard a financial trend just as it's about to end.
Government itself is actually a case in point. Here's what the August 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said:
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
If Stocks Can't Hold These Levels, We'll Have a Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: With no real positives to boost markets, important support levels had better hold… or it's over.
The lines I'm about to show you have to hold, or we'll test the Aug. 24, 2015, lows.
And if those lows don't hold, well, say hello to Mr. Big Bad Bear Market.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Stock Market Flushing Lower... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jack_Steiman
The market futures were down early in the evening on Sunday, only to recover nicely by the morning. It seemed as though the market was about to dodge another nasty move lower, but that wasn't the case at all as the futures dove, once again, before the market opened, cresting a decent gap lower by a little over a ten handle on the S&P 500. That was the good news for the bulls. The market slowly, but very gradually, began to weaken after the usual few attempts higher by the retail bulls.
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Monday, September 28, 2015
SPX Triggers a Amall Head & Shoulders Formation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation and crossed beneath the September 1 low at 1903.07. This move greatly reduces the probability of a sideways or higher consolidation through the end of the month. Lower quarterly statements also imply further selling into the month of October, as investors receive their statements and pull the trigger.
Although the very early part of the window for a potential Master Cycle low begins October 1, day 258 arrives on October 19.
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Monday, September 28, 2015
Stock Market Week Begins On A Scary Note / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
The US markets awoke to news of several big, disturbing overseas events:
Glencore implodes. Think of Swiss commodities giant Glencore as a modern version of Enron, in the sense that it owns physical assets like mines and oil wells around the world and runs perhaps the biggest commodities derivatives trading desk. And — also like Enron — it’s apparently unprepared for extreme commodity price volatility. This morning its stock price plunged even further and its credit default swaps — the cost of insuring payment on its its bonds — blew out to record levels.
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Monday, September 28, 2015
Stock Market Bubble Balloons in Search of Needles / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Mauldin
I love waterfalls. I’ve seen some of the world’s best, and they always have an impact. The big ones leave me awestruck at nature’s power. It was about 20 years ago that I did a boat trip on the upper Zambezi, ending at Victoria Falls. Such a placid river, full of game and hippopotamuses (and the occasional croc); and then you begin to hear the roar of the falls from miles away. Unbelievably majestic. From there the Zambezi River turns into a whitewater rafting dream, offering numerous class 5 thrills. Of course, you wouldn’t want to run them without a serious professional at the helm. When you’re looking at an 8-foot-high wall of water in front of you that you are going to have to go up (because it’s in the way); well, let’s just say it’s a rush.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Stock Market Negative Expectations Once Again - Will It Break Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, September 28, 2015
Whole Lotta Stocks Bear Markets Goin' On / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: John_Rubino
The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen by around 10% since August, which in normal times would be hardly worth mentioning. But below the surface, in what used to be the market's hottest sectors, much more serious damage is taking place.
Biotech, which had an epic bull market during the era of QE and the Affordable Care Act, had begun to crater even before Hillary Clinton proposed price controls for pharmaceuticals. Last week it went straight down.
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Monday, September 28, 2015
Stock Market Testing Important Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market?
Intermediate trend - SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 27, 2015
Markets Gone Mad / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Mike_Whitney
Imagine your doctor put you on a daily dose of oxycontin, phenobarbital and Quaaludes for six years straight. Then he suddenly cancelled your prescription.
Do you think your behavior might become a bit erratic?
This is what’s going on with the stock market. It’s trying to shake off six years of overmedication brought on by the Fed’s zero rates and liquidity injections.
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Sunday, September 27, 2015
Fed Custodial Gold Continues to Decline in the Post-Bretton Woods II Monetary Interregnum / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: Jesse
The avalanche of gold that fled the Second World War is going home.
This is a return to a more 'normal' currency regime, and a move towards monetary autonomy in the aftermath of the of Bretton Woods era.
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Sunday, September 27, 2015
Why I'm Thrilled Stocks Are Crashing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dan Ferris writes: I'm praying for another couple of months like August in the stock market.