Stock Market Turn Appears to Have Been Made
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Oct 06, 2015 - 05:35 PM GMT
SPX peaked at 10:00, as suggested this morning. I had suggested that last Thursday might be the peak, due to an indication of a Primary Pivot there. However, it was not in the dominant Cycle. Today was day 43 of the dominant Cycle, that is, the one beginning on August 24.
One of the reasons for much of the confusion up to the July 20 high was the lack of dominant Cycles. That is why I had emphasized the July 7 low as being a probable flash crash, which it wasn’t, because it originated on October 15, 2014. Now that we are getting sorted out, it may be easier to follow the next series of declines and rallies.
Yesterday the VIX was due for a Trading Cycle low, so this turn was also anticipated in the Cycles Model. Note that a Trading Cycle is weaker than a Master Cycle low. The last Master Cycle low was on August 5. The next on is due on or near December 3.
Although the VIX is beneath its 50-day Moving Average, it is still above its daily mid-Cycle support which coincides with the 2-hour Cycle Bottom at 16.49. VIX is still on an aggressive sell signal.
The Hi-Lo made a high of 62 today, not seen since August. Normally this would be bullish, but for today’s Pivot day. We would want to see the Hi-Lo decline beneath -19.31 to give an official sell signal.
TNX also peaked at 10:00. It has made a nice reversal and is on its way to deeper lows indicated by the Head & Shoulders pattern.
Regards,
Tony
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