Category: Stock Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Europe Does It Again..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
We woke up to futures down over one hundred points this morning. There were two main culprits, bad news out of Greece on their financial situation, which keeps taking turns for the worst, and the political headache for Chancellor Angela Merkel out of Germany, the opposition party winning a key election not necessarily friendly with her views. Merkel is desperately trying to hold Germany out of the financial crisis inflicting the rest of the Euro-zone. She'll have one less friend to work with now. Certainly, she doesn't need opposition right now, but it's what she'll be getting.
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Monday, May 14, 2012
Greece May Trigger Bearish Stock Market Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Over the weekend, there was little in the way of good news coming from Greece. According to Bloomberg:
Greece’s biggest anti-bailout party, Syriza, said for the second time in as many days that it won’t join a unity government, pushing the country closer to new elections that have sparked concerns about a euro-area exit.
Nine-MSN, in a story dated May 14, also gives little encouragement relative to progress in Greece:
Read full article... Read full article...Emergency Greek cabinet talks have yielded no clear progress, raising the prospect of new elections that could scupper reforms and drive the country out of the eurozone. If a cabinet cannot be formed by Thursday, when parliament convenes, new elections will have to be called in June.
Monday, May 14, 2012
Stock Market Line In The Sand About To Be Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact and so is the extended short-term correction.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Value and Dividends at Wall Cycle Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In light of the top of the multi-decade bull market and the recurring bear market massacres since the top, investors are increasingly jaded and skeptical. Stocks need to deliver an acceptable dividend stream to satisfy the growing investor preference for income. Investors want value for their money and that means sustainable dividend income at the right price. Combining the principles of value investing with market cycle tracking allows investors to identify value and the most opportune times to buy it.
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Perched on the Edge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Another great week of volatility, which is what traders want to trade, although we are perched now on the edge and an important choice needs to be made, very similar to what happened last year around this time.
I left readers with this chart from last weeks' article
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Downtrends Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The US market gapped down at the open on monday to SPX 1364. Then proceeded to make lower downtrend lows but rebounded to that level, or 2 points higher, every day this week. It was a somewhat volatile week with a range between SPX 1343 and 1374. In the end the SPX/DOW lost 1.5%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.8%. Foreign markets were mixed with the DJ World index down 2.1%, Asia down 3.5%, and Europe up 0.3%. Economic reports for the week remained on the downside with negatives outpacing positives 6 to 4. On the uptick: consumer credit, a budget surplus, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. On the downtick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, the PPI, plus jobless claims rose and the trade deficit widened. Next week there are reports on housing, the CPI, industrial production and the FOMC minutes. Best to your week!
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Sunday, May 13, 2012
Stock Market Short-term Intra-day Forecasts Free Access / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Dear Reader,
Virtually every minute of every trading day, all eyes – including mine – are on Wall Street, the financial epicenter of the world.
As a professional technical market analyst, I keep my finger on the pulse of the DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq, giving you the updates in the time frame that's important to short-term equity traders.
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Saturday, May 12, 2012
Plunging Commodity Prices Are Ominous For Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Consumers understandably like to see prices for commodities decline, the more the merrier, particularly gasoline and energy costs.Many analysts also take commodity price declines as a positive for the economy, on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and manufacturers will have lower costs, so hopefully greater earnings.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
Europe: Big Problems Remain For Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In December 2011, the European Central Bank (ECB) attempted to paper over the debt crisis. As noted by the Wall Street Journal on April 18, “Europe’s bold program to defuse its financial crisis by injecting cash into the banking system is running out of steam”.
Since the credit markets in Spain and Italy have shown renewed signs of strain, the timing for elections in France and Greece was less than ideal for policymakers. On Friday morning, there were rumblings from Europe giving some basis for optimism to the post-election situation in Greece.
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Friday, May 11, 2012
Stock Market 'Sell in May, and Go Away,' Strikes Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Mark Twain, one of America's most famous literary icons, and known for his folksy humor, used to say, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme."
On Wall Street, it's been the "least loved Bull market" in history. Since the start of 2008, there's been a massive exodus of more than $400-billion from mutual funds that invest in US companies, after the biggest and scariest plunge this generation of investors has ever seen. Yet at the same time, the current Bull market, that's grown up in the shadow of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, is the seventh best percentage gainer in market history. It's also the first Bull market to double in value in less than three years. Despite its impressive résumé, this Bull market gets little respect from retail investors. It's considered to be a bubble that's artificially inflated by the Federal Reserve's cheap money policies. Spooked investors prefer to be clear of the maniacal stock market, before the grizzly Bear arrives.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Dow Stock Index Reverses at Andrews Median Line / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The ECB is opening the checkbook to protect their bond purchases in Greece and all is well again. With Bonds , the Russell index and SPY showing reversal signals the down move is probably over.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Q.E.3 IS COMING! Stock Market MAP Analysis Part 4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In Parts 1 thru 3 we established that the principles of MAP Waves is nothing new and I claim no credit for it. It is actually the first step and foundation of all EW theory which rarely is referred to, and even more rarely used by many of the experts around us.
So let us revisit the basic basic EW practical lesson 1 - what lines to draw and what information we can derive from them to establish with probable potential pivots target areas which meet EW wave validation criteria.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Stock Market Hangs In, But By A Thread / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
As summed up by Reuters below, the situation in Greece remains fragile:
Read full article... Read full article...Radical Leftist Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government on Tuesday by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks in a statement likely to reduce his chances of success. His uncompromising stance may lower already slim chances of forming a coalition by scaring off the former ruling parties New Democracy and socialist PASOK, while further unsettling jittery investors.
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Still Working The Stock Market Base... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Creating, and setting up, a longer-term base to trade in takes time. When you're in the agnostic phase of a bull market, and a 5-8% correction is needed, which allows for a large handling base to set up, it takes far more time than one would hope to be true. After all, isn't it easier to just crash down, and then just blast back up? That is naturally what all the bulls would like to see happen. Unfortunately, when you've been grossly overbought for months, the process is very low and very emotionally taxing. The market won't just blast back up, and it won't just blast down, either. A nice slow grind to the bottom over several months, two months and counting still, that feels like forever in the minds of all traders. Since we're still in a bull market, it feels like things should go faster, but that's part of the problem.
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Monday, May 07, 2012
The Stock Market Correction is Not Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact and so is the extended short-term correction.
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Monday, May 07, 2012
Crazy Stock Market Moves Give Bears a Glimmer of Hope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Some crazy moves seen in the risk markets this past week, and potentially some important clues, but I suspect that not many traders are actually watching those clues, although they will do soon if those clues continue.
So what are these clues?
2 forex pairs I follow and have followed for a long time, especially over the past 3 years have been AUDUSD and NZDUSD, they imo are very important clues to where other risk markets will go.
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Sunday, May 06, 2012
Best Stock Market Indicator Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market.
The OEXA is used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever? for a discussion of this technical tool.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
Stock Market Forecast for Coming Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Situation does not change much from last week; in fact it becomes more complicated after US jobs report. It could be better if markets would get an assurance from Mr. Draghi, as it got from Bernanke in past week. Spain’s bond auction was good but declined in German bund yields are indicating the overall situation of riskier assets. Germany is now holding an important position but this type of bad PMI report may create lot of problems not only for them but also for whole world.
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Saturday, May 05, 2012
Snap.........Goes The Stock Market.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
You cannot be surprised that the market took a big drop down Friday. The jobs creation report was well below expectations, which continues a series of economic reports that have come in weaker than expected these days. None of us want to see that, not just because it's bad for the market, but because it means that too many people are suffering without jobs. It tells us that the global economies are catching up to us. The United States was, basically, the wall of strength for the rest of the world, but the economy is weakening due to the problems abroad, problems that don't seem to have a good solution right now. The slowing in our own economy is rapidly accelerating. Just four to six months ago, there was improvement across the board. There was one economic report after another coming in with data stronger than the previous months. Now the same thing is happening in reverse.
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Friday, May 04, 2012
Stock Market Still Above Key Support Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Global markets are reacting differently to the ongoing challenges in Europe. But they all have one item in common. They appear to have stalled above key support levels.
The broad-based Dow Jones World Stock Index (Chart 1) is now consolidating above the important 245 support level. This line has held the global index over the past two months.
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