Category: US Economy

Friday, June 27, 2014

U.S. GDP: Is the Economic Sky Falling? / Economics / US Economy

By: Investment_U

Tom Sandford writes: The U.S. economy just came out on top of one of the biggest financial upsets in decades, but you might not know it from the latest report on America’s gross domestic product (GDP).

According to the U.S. Commerce Department, GDP nosedived by 2.9% during the first quarter of 2014. It also set the record for the worst first-quarter performance in five years. Naturally, the news has some investors shaking in their boots.

Friday, June 27, 2014

There Are No – Financial – Black Swans / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Oh Japan, what are you doing, where are you going? As Japanese consumer prices rose 3.4% in May (and I do wish people would stop calling this inflation, it is not and never will be), consumer spending was down -8.9% (!). That is from a year earlier, so it has nothing to do with the April 1 tax hike! It’s an insane number when you think about it, and it’s the direct result of Abenomics tightening the thumb screws. With the population having seen their savings collapse, their wages move way down, and now rising prices for food and other basics. While the government and central bank are spending with unparalleled abandon, and pension funds are moving into riskier assets, away from government bonds, which have that same central bank as their only buyer left. Is it also going to purchase all the bonds the pensions funds will bring into the market? Frankly, how can it not?

Friday, June 20, 2014

Global Drag Threatens Worst U.S. Export Performance in Over 60 Years / Economics / US Economy

By: F_F_Wiley

Ever since an über-strong U.S. dollar crushed the export sector in the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy hasn’t looked quite the same.

Exports picked up towards the end of the decade, helped along by the G-7’s historic 1985 powwow at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which led to a coordinated effort to slam back the dollar. Nonetheless, some export industries never fully recovered.

Friday, June 20, 2014

U.S. Economy Is Still in the High-Danger Zone / Economics / US Economy

By: Don_Miller

I hate being the bearer of bad news.

I remember the one and only time in my life I agreed to umpire a Little League game behind the plate. My youngest son was on the mound, and his older brother came to bat. The count went to 3-2, and I realized I had a huge knot in my stomach.

I said to myself, “God, please let him swing and hit the ball!” And he did. I don’t even recall where it went; I was just thankful I didn’t have to make a call that would have meant bad news for one of them.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

IMF Christine Lagarde Lagarde - U.S. Economy Not in a Downward Spiral / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund Managing Director, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today about the IMF’s forecast cut for U.S. GDP growth in 2014, how she views the U.S. economy on a global scale and French politics. She also explains why the IMF recommends an increase in the U.S. minimum wage to kick start growth.

Lagarde said, "We have revised downward the 2014 numbers, but we do not think that it will be a downward spiral. We believe that 2015 will be up 3 percent." 

Saturday, June 07, 2014

U.S. Economic Statistics Snow Job / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolutely vital alibi. If not for the excuse of the bad weather, the entire narrative of a sustainable recovery would have been proven false.

Sunday, June 01, 2014

The Illusionary Economy Revives The Home ATM / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal uncovers a big problem in the US housing market, albeit, curiously, without necessarily identifying it as a problem. It would be nice if Americans could trust their once most trusted media to give them the best possible covering of a topic, but the Wall Street Journal apparently prefers to pick the side of, well, Wall Street. The problem not presented as one is the resurgence of American homes as ATMs, of borrowing against a property’s perceived value through home equity loans or home equity lines of credit (Helocs).

Friday, May 30, 2014

The Pretty Girl and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s a persistent story that says (though I don’t think I can confirm it) that a pretty girl prefers to surround herself with less pretty girls – all in the eye of the beholder – in order to look prettier. After seeing yesterday’s -1% (-2% if you include Obamacare) US GDP ungrowth number, a fair segment of the financial press and punditry took a page out of the pretty girl playbook and ran with it. What should really be a deeply disturbing number in a 5 year old recovery (which is about 100 years in human terms) that has cost Americans trillions upon trillions in stimulus measures, is easily turned, without batting an eye, into a solid positive. The awful Q1 print, we are now told, serves to make Q2 look that much better.

Friday, May 30, 2014

US Economy GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

As expected, the US revised the most recent quarter’s GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the problem was hidden by some statistical sleight of hand, in this case wildly-optimistic inflation assumptions.

Here’s an excerpt from the Consumer Metrics Institute’s just-published analysis:

Thursday, May 29, 2014

U.S. Economic Growth BEA Revised GDP Sharply Lower to -1% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -0.99% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down over 3.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013, and it is now more than 5% lower than the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter of 2013.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Just How Weak is the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported that Q1 GDP was only 0.1% in the United States. Most of that anemic number was blamed on worse-than-usual weather. But it should be noted that if our government accurately accounted for inflation, it would be clear to all that economic growth didn't just stall at the start of 2014; but rather it contracted sharply. And if our economy can be thrown into a tailspin by a few snow storms, it is an economy that simply has not recovered from the Great Recession--which supposedly ended five years ago.

Monday, May 26, 2014

U.S. Retail Economic Death Rattle Grows Louder / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

The definition of death rattle is a sound often produced by someone who is near death when fluids such as saliva and bronchial secretions accumulate in the throat and upper chest. The person can’t swallow and emits a deepening wheezing sound as they gasp for breath. This can go on for two or three days before death relieves them of their misery. The American retail industry is emitting an unmistakable wheezing sound as a long slow painful death approaches.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Is Not Japan Or Europe / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

There has been a trend of late to compare European and Japanese Bond yields to that of the United States and England so I think it necessary to define some large flaws in these comparisons.

Japan Comparison

Let us start with Japan, Japan has an aging demographic, little immigration, very limited natural resources, and have not been a major player in anything other than heavy industry specific nuclear applications and autos since the mid-1980s.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Echoes of 1937 in the Current U.S. Economic Cycle / Economics / US Economy

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: It is not too early to ask how the present US business cycle expansion, already more than five years old, will end. The history of the last great US monetary experiment in “quantitative easing” (QE) from 1934-7 suggests that the end could be violent. Autumn 1937 featured one of the largest New York stock market crashes ever accompanied by the descent of the US economy into the notorious Roosevelt Recession. Should we take comfort from the fact that Friedman and Schwartz, in their epic monetary history, claim to have discovered the policy error by the Federal Reserve which was responsible for the 1937 denouement. And that today’s Fed officials are adamant about having learned their lesson? The short answer is no.

Monday, May 19, 2014

Another Phantom Economic Recovery Fails / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Each year since the recession officially ended in the summer of 2009, Wall Street and Washington have tried to dupe investors into believing a second half recovery was in store for the stock market and economy. However, this promise has failed to come into fruition each year, as annual GDP growth has not reached north of trend growth (3%) since 2005. But, with the hope that investors have a perennial case of amnesia, these cheerleaders are yet again trumpeting the illusion that economic growth is about to surge.

Friday, May 16, 2014

May`s U.S. Employment Report to Top 300K, Rising Inflation / Economics / US Economy

By: EconMatters

Thursday, May 15, 2014

U.S. Economic Confusion / Economics / US Economy

By: Fred_Sheehan

The Producer Price Index for April was released May 14, 2014. The one-month change was +0.6%, after it rose 0.5% in March (revised to that figure in the April report). Foods rose 2.7% (+1.1% in March). In "All the Junk Food You Love is Pricier This Year," Max Nisen writes on Quartz: "Chipotle's [Grill - CMG: NYSE] food prices were up 34.5% last quarter in total, with big increases in [beef, cheese, avocado, and pork]." Chipotle's CFO John Hurtung laments: "While we want to remain accessible to our customers, we're at a point where we need to pass along these rapidly rising costs." Chipotle's stock price was $505 at the close on May 14, 2014, up from $49 at the great liftoff on March 9, 2009.

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

U.S. Economy Death Cross - A Parasite Is Devouring The Heart Of America / Politics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Tyler Durden runs a few lines by us from casino mogul Steve Wynn that paint a micro cosmos of everything that’s going wrong in our economies. Wynn calls the present conditions in which he conducts business “nirvana” because of prevailing artificially low interest rates and downward pressure on the dollar, but he also recognizes who pays for his nirvana. In very few words, he defines with precision how measures ostensibly intended to save the economy instead serve to destroy it, even as – and because -they make it – too – easy for him and his “class” to enrich themselves even further.

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

U.S. Jobs Report and the Band Played On / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

After three months of consistently disappointing jobs numbers, the markets were as keyed up for a good jobs report as a long suffering sailor awaiting shore leave in a tropical port. The just released April jobs report, which claimed that 288,000 jobs were created in the U.S. during the month, provided the apparent good news. But you don't have to go too far beneath the surface to find some troubling trends within the data. Even this minor excavation was too much for the media cheerleaders and Wall Street pitchmen to handle. 

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Americans Find A New Source Of Spending Money / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Hurray! Americans have found a new source of spending money; after ATM-draining their home equity till even the roofs were underwater, and maxing out every single little shred of plastic they could lay their hands on, “families looked around for what was left”, and now it’s time to empty out 401(k)’s until there’s really nothing left at all anymore. Then it’ll be recovery or die, presumably. But a recovery is not going to happen, and certainly not for society’s bottom rung. Oh well, maybe there’s some form of slavery they can enter into. Not surprisingly, the US government is quite content with this new development: