Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, May 03, 2014
Gerald Celente Finally Gives a Date for U.S. Economic Collapse / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gerald Celente, a popular gloom and doom blogger and publisher of the TR Journal finally gives a date for the always coming economic collapse that I must have been hearing about for 5 years now.
WLW Radio - 30th April 2014
"Your predicting an economic collapse, when do you think that is going to happen Gerald?"
"I am going to say by the end of the second quarter." - Gerald Celente
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Wednesday, April 23, 2014
U.S. Quarterly Economic Review - Optimism at the Fed / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expected QE to be more stimulative than it has been, to the tune of about 6% over the past four years – a total of about $1 trillion that never materialized.
Given that dismal track record, our authors ask why we should believe the Fed’s prediction of 2.9% real GDP growth for 2014 and 3.4% for 2015 – particularly with QE being tapered into nonexistence.
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Friday, April 18, 2014
More To U.S. Economic Slowdown Than Weather / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The stock market has hung in there so far this year in spite of negative economic reports from December through February that indicated the economy was slowing significantly.
Not that the market continued its winter rally. For 2014 so far, the Dow is down 0.9%, the S&P 500 is up just 0.6%, and the Nasdaq is down 2.2%.
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Tuesday, April 15, 2014
Forecasting U.S. GDP Growth: A Look at WSJ Economists’ Collective Crystal Ball / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Courtesy of Doug Short: One of the big economic numbers this month will be the Q1 Advance Estimate for GDP, due out on April 30th. With this morning’s first glimpse of March Retail Sales now in hand, let’s take a look at Q1 GDP forecasts from the latest Wall street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month. For some context, Q4 2013 Real GDP went from 3.2% in the Advance Estimate to 2.4% in the Second Estimate to 2.6% in the Third Estimate. And of course it will be subject to an annual revision in July.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
The Huge Economic Indicator Everyone Misses / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you like bull markets, you better hope Janet Yellen is one of the most talkative Fed Chairs in history.
It's not that she's going to say anything brilliant or insightful, just that she says something - anything - on a regular basis.
You see, there's a direct relationship between how much she says and what's happening in the markets. What she says is almost completely irrelevant.
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Friday, March 21, 2014
Rising Borrowing Costs Could Threaten US Economic Recovery and USD Rally / Economics / US Economy
By: MahiFX
There's an inconvenient truth, which is that many western countries are so heavily indebted that they cannot afford rising interest rates, yet that is exactly what is starting to happen in the US and long before the US Federal Reserve tighten official rates.
Steadily rising interest rates should be supportive for USD as the Fed normalises its monetary policy. Yet the very process of winding down quantitative easing could be sowing the seeds for the next US economic downturn and a weaker USD.
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Saturday, March 08, 2014
Weakening U.S. Economy Weather or Not? / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it's easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it's much harder to conclude that the it's responsible for the economic vortex that appears to have swallowed the American economy over the past three months. But this hasn't stopped economists, Fed officials, and media analysts from making this unequivocal assertion. In reality the weather is not what's ailing us. It's just the latest straw being grasped at by those who believe that the phony recovery engineered by the Fed is real and lasting. The April thaw is not far off. Unfortunately the economy is likely to stay frozen for some time to come.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 03, 2014
Is Bad Weather Behind Weak US Economic Trends? / Economics / US Economy
By: Frank_Shostak
Some key US economic data shows visible weakening. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index slumped to 46 in February from 56 in January.
The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Empire State general business conditions index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.51 the month before.
Saturday, March 01, 2014
Do U.S. Economic Reports Mean Anything This Time? / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Some of the Federal Reserve’s districts compile and release monthly economic reports for their regions.
In the last week or two, those reports were that the Fed’s Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in February. The Fed’s Philadelphia Region Index plunged from a positive reading of + 9.4 in January to - 6.3 in February. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index dropped from 3.8 in January to 0.3 in February. The Richmond Fed’s Index plummeted from +12 in January to -6 in February.
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Monday, February 24, 2014
Disappointing U.S. Economic Data - Whether or Not it's the Weather / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street and Washington have summarily dismissed the recent spate of disappointing economic data by claiming it is solely based upon the weather. The equity market is 100% convinced that winter is to blame for the faltering economy; and that even if stocks have it all wrong, Ms. Yellen and co. will immediately print enough money to make everything ok.
Friday, February 21, 2014
U.S. Economy Weather Impact Narrative Getting Confusing / Economics / US Economy
By: Ronan_Keenan
The “weather impact” debate has been ongoing for much of this year and looks set to continue for a while longer. Initially there seemed to be a clear narrative that colder-than-normal temperatures were slowing economic activity and markets seemed to gladly discount weak figures. But several data releases this week have brought confusion to the tidy story.
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Saturday, February 08, 2014
U.S. Economic Outlook Is About More Than Just Jobs / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The Labor Department’s employment report for January was the second straight monthly negative surprise in that area of the economy. It showed only 113,000 new jobs were created in January, well short of the consensus forecast for 190,000.
As they did in reaction to December’s dismal jobs report, Wall Street analysts are blaming it on the weather.
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Monday, February 03, 2014
The Real State of the Union / Politics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Before anyone gets all bent out of shape, this is NOT going to be a political essay. To restate my position on the issue of politics, I couldn’t care less what group or party anyone belongs to, but rather, about how they do the job they were entrusted with doing. In my lifetime we’ve had but a few lawmakers who truly did their jobs with the trust and stewardship of their constituents in mind. That group grows fewer as we egress from the former America into this brave new world of offshoring, economic microcephalism, and blatant malfeasance.
Monday, January 20, 2014
The Retail Economic Death Rattle / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” ― Emile Gauvreau
If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.
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Monday, January 13, 2014
Pathetic December U.S. Job Numbers Proof 2014 Will Be a Challenging Year / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: What happened?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that only 74,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December. Most economists were expecting 200,000 jobs to be created in December—way off reality. The December increase in U.S. payrolls was the slowest pace in almost three years.
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Friday, January 10, 2014
What Really Bothers Me About the So-Called U.S. Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: On the surface, the data suggest there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy. We hear that the unemployment rate is declining. Incomes in the U.S. economy are increasing. Consumers are buying more and more goods—as a result, we are going to see higher U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is intact...right?
Sadly, when I examine the details, I really question if this is all a mirage. Is there really economic growth in the U.S. economy?
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Monday, January 06, 2014
Economic Indicators Pointing to Weaker U.S. Economic Growth in 2014 / Economics / US Economy
By: DailyGainsLetter
John Paul Whitefoot writes: If the stock market is an indicator of U.S. economic health, then 2013 was a stellar year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out 2013 with a 26% gain. The S&P 500 was up 29%, while the NASDAQ Composite was up 34%.
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Sunday, January 05, 2014
The Case of the Missing U.S. Economic Recovery / Politics / US Economy
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
Have you seen the economic recovery? I haven’t either. But it is bound to be around here somewhere, because the National Bureau of Economic Research spotted it in June 2009, four and one-half years ago.
It is a shy and reclusive recovery, like the “New Economy” and all those promised new economy jobs. I haven’t seen them either, but we know they are here, somewhere, because the economists said so.
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Saturday, December 28, 2013
Economic Forecasts and Drivers 2014 - The Fed, Inflation-Deflation, Interest Rates, Housing and Speculation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It's that time of year again, when we begin to think of what the next one will bring. I will be doing my annual forecast issue next week, but my friend Gary Shilling has already done his and has graciously allowed me to use a shortened version of his letter as this week's Thoughts from the Frontline. So without any further ado, let's jump right to Gary's look at where we are and where we're going.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
U.S. Economy - The ‘Real’ Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Earlier today I posted an update on the December Advance Report on November Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.
Let’s now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer an alternate historical context in which to evaluate the standard reports on the nominal monthly data.
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