Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, June 15, 2015
Consumers Not Following Orders / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
Last week the government reported personal income and spending for April. After months of blaming non-existent consumer spending on cold weather, shockingly occurring during the Winter, the captured mainstream media pundits, Ivy League educated Wall Street economist lackeys, and Keynesian loving money printers at the Fed have run out of propaganda to explain why Americans are not spending money they don’t have. The corporate mainstream media is now visibly angry with the American people for not doing what the Ivy League propagated Keynesian academic models say they should be doing.
Friday, June 05, 2015
Kill the Export-Import Bank and Cut Corporate Taxes / Politics / US Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Former Texas Governor Rick Perry announced his candidacy for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination earlier today. Many recall his 2012 bid, which came to a rather spectacular end when Gov. Perry, on live television, forgot the name of the third federal agency he promised to eliminate if elected president. However, in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Gov. Perry redeemed himself by offering a real candidate for elimination: the Export-Import Bank.
Thursday, June 04, 2015
Uptown Slowdown: The Rich Are Slowing Their Spending Now, Too! / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Recent statistics show that the affluent are rapidly slowing in their spending. Economists are surprised, as usual. We’re not. The beauty of demographic trends is that they allow us to see changes in spending well ahead. It’s the single best indicator we have for the economy.
This is even more important in a time when many leading indicators no longer work, thanks to an economy artificially manipulated by quantitative easing. What we know from our research is that the demographic blows have already started to hit us since 2007, but that they’ll get markedly worse through 2020 and 2022.
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Even The Good Economic Numbers Are Bad / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
US factory orders tanked again this morning, and were generally reported that way at first. To take just a few of the low-lights:
- Factory orders have declined in eight of the last nine months.
- Orders for transportation equipment fell 2.4 percent while orders for computers and consumer goods-related equipment also fell by varying amounts.
- Last month’s durable goods orders were revised to -0.3% from the original +1%.
- Business inventories remain at near-record high levels.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
US Economy – Semi b2b Amps Up its Trend / Economics / US Economy
By: Gary_Tanashian
A quick review for newer subscribers: In Q1 2013 we noted that the Semiconductor Equipment industry was in “ramp up” mode per a personal source in the industry. After that pivotal period, we have relied on the Semi Equipment ‘book-to-bill’ ratio as a monthly checkup on what is often an important economic leading indicator. The Canary chirped in 2013 and it is still singing a sweet song today.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
No Money, No Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Last August, the US Fed stopped creating new currency out of thin air and dumping it into the banking system. Which is another way of saying the US money supply stopped growing. Here’s the adjusted monetary base — a proxy for the amount of new currency the Fed is creating — over the past eight months:
Monday, May 11, 2015
U.S. Economy is the Tallest Midget / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Dick Parsons, former chairman and chief executive officer at Time Warner, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle about the future for former ESPN columnist Bill Simmons, the challenge to build your own brand in digital media and looks at the future of cable M&A. He also discussed the state of banking in the U.S. as firms face penalties for Libor rate-rigging and continued regulatory oversight by the U.S. and global governments.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
U.S. GDP Sucking Spoilt Milk From A Bloated Dead Sow / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
With US GDP growth ‘officially’ back where it belongs, in the Arctic zone close to freezing on the surface but much worse in real life, for reasons both Albert Edwards and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (not exactly a pair of Siamese twins) remarked this week; that is, excluding the “biggest inventory build in history, the economy contracted sharply”, it’s time for everyone to at long last change the angle from which they view the world, if not the color of their glasses.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
What Does The Strong U.S. Dollar Mean For The Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed no longer keeps promises of being "patient". The March's FOMC statement was, however, interpreted as dovish, which caused the plunge in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the renewed expectations of the interest rate hike (caused by some Fed officials' hawkish statements or stronger economic data in the second quarter due to low base in the first quarter) may cause the U.S. dollar to rally further, which could harm the emerging markets and unwind the carry trade. It is then high time we explain the consequences of the possible next bull in the greenback for the global economy.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
BEA Reports Weak U.S. 1st Quarter 2015 GDP Growth at 0.25% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +0.25% annualized rate, down sharply (-1.97%) from the +2.22% growth rate recorded for the prior quarter. And according to the "real final sales of domestic product" (BEA's very own "bottom line" for the economy), the economy actually shrank during the quarter, contracting at about a half percent (-0.49%) annualized rate, down -2.81% from last quarter's +2.32%. The difference between the headline number and "final sales" is inventory growth, which is excluded from the "bottom line" figure.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
U.S. GDP Economic Growth Flat-Lines, Fed Interest Rate Hike Evaporates / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
As pretty much everyone is now aware, US Q1 growth was way below expectations. And the only reason it was even marginally positive was because businesses expanded their inventories at a record rate. Here’s a chart from Zero Hedge comparing the economy’s growth with that of inventories:
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Saturday, April 25, 2015
US Factories Crushed By Strong U.S. Dollar / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Government statistics are always suspect, for at least one obvious reason: Modern economies are way too big and complex to measure in real-time. So virtually every number is revised in the months after its release, frequently to the point of saying something very different. But by then lots of new data has come out and no one cares about the old numbers.
Monday, April 13, 2015
The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.
However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.
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Monday, March 30, 2015
Where the U.S. Economy Is Heading According to Buffett / Economics / US Economy
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Many investors like to follow the “smart money.” And it doesn’t get much smarter than Warren Buffett. So it’s worth examining what stocks Buffett is buying and selling, not just for individual names, but to gauge his overall comfort with the market.
In the quarter ending in December, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) sold all of its shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). It also reduced its holdings in National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) by about 18%. A lot of Buffett watchers have interpreted his reduced holdings in energy as bad news for the industry.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.22% annualized rate, effectively unchanged (+0.04%) from the +2.18% previously reported and down -2.74% from the growth rate reported for the prior quarter.
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Recently I received a very thoughtful comment from a subscriber.
In response to “The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices,” Ramon had this to say about playing “the Iran card:”
Dr. Moors,
I find your updates very helpful in cutting through the chatter. After spending a large amount of time and resources trying to understand petroleum related energy, I developed this question.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
For years, the government has been manipulating its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.
Jim Clifton of Gallup finally couldn't stand it anymore and wrote a terrific op-ed on the subject. Here is the meat of it:
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Tuesday, March 24, 2015
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Dear investor,
For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.
But as a student of the markets, you know that already.
So here's something you may not know ...
Friday, March 13, 2015
Alan Greenspan Warns Crude Oil Price Hasn't Hit Bottom Yet / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu about the outlook for oil, the U.S. economy and the dollar.
Greenspan told Betty Liu that oil hasn't hit bottom yet: "We are at the point now where, at the current rate of fill, we’re going to run out of room [at our domestic facility in Cushing, Oklahoma] by next month. And then the question is -- where does the crude go? Because everyone's forecast as to what was going to happen when prices collapsed was a sharp curtailment in shale oil production. That has not happened. The weekly figures, which are produced by the Energy Information Agency through March the 6, show a continued rise in domestic crude production and it has got no place to go, because we can’t legally export the way we would for most products. We can do a little exporting and Canada, but essentially, we’re bottling up a huge amount of crude oil in the United States."