Category: US Economy
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growth Upward to 1.99% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third (and "final") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.99% annualized rate, down -0.08% from their previous estimate -- and down nearly 2% (-1.93%) from the second quarter.
Almost all of the revisions in this report were minor, with the largest changes again involving the especially noisy inventory data. Most of the other line items were essentially unchanged. Inventories were reported to have been contracting at a -0.71% annualized rate, a -0.12% deterioration from from the -0.59% contraction rate reported in the previous estimate. As we have mentioned a number of times before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") was actually revised upward +0.04% to a +2.70% growth rate for the third quarter, from the +2.66% previously reported.
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Friday, December 18, 2015
The Velocity of the American Consumer / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I was reading something yesterday by my highly esteemed fellow writer Charles Hugh Smith that had me first puzzled and then thinking ‘I don’t think so’, in the same vein as Mark Twain’s recently over-quoted quote:
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
I was thinking that was the case with Charles’ article. I was sure it just ain’t so. As for Twain, I’m more partial to another quote of his these days (though it has absolutely nothing to do with the topic:
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Saturday, December 05, 2015
Strong U.S. Payroll Number +211,000 Assures December Interest Rate Hike / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Following last month's payroll surge comes a second strong month. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 190,000 jobs and the headline total was 211,000. The unemployment rate was steady to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008. A rate hike in December is now assured.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
The “Real Stuff” Economy Is Falling Apart / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
Each month one or two high-profile government reports show the US is growing, adding jobs and generally recovering from the Great Recession. But it’s not clear how that can be, when the part of the economy that makes and moves real things keeps shrinking. Here’s a chart, published recently by Zero Hedge, showing that US manufacturing has been contracting for the past year:
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
BEA Revises 3rd Quarter 2015 US GDP Economic Growth Upward to 2.07% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their second estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.07% annualized rate, up +0.58% from their previous estimate -- but still down nearly 2% (-1.85%) from the second quarter.
Friday, November 20, 2015
The End Of The Economic Recovery, In One Chart / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
BOA's Moynihan: U.S. Consumer Spending Strong in October / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Brian Moynihan, Bank of America CEO, spoke with Bloomberg Television's David Westin today about the risks facing the banking industry and the state of the global economy.
Moynihan on U.S. consumer spending: "October is probably one of the strongest months this year relative to October of last year…It's a strong economy…Unemployment levels are down, and wage growth is picking up. That’s all good. Now the question is, what can derail that. And that’s what we have to pay attention to."
Monday, November 09, 2015
U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Turns Into the Dark Ages / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
The October ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been the official barometer of the U.S. manufacturing sector since 1915, came in with a reading of just 50.1. This was a level barely above contraction.
Of the 18 industries surveyed in the Regional Manufacturing Survey, 9 reported contraction in October: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Wood Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
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Friday, October 30, 2015
BEA Reports 3rd Quarter 2015 U.S. GDP Growing at Just 1.49% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +1.49% annualized rate, down -2.43% from the second quarter.
This report included significant changes in the details as well as the headline. By far the greatest quarter-over-quarter change was in inventories, which subtracted -1.44% from the headline after being essentially neutral during the prior quarter. As we have mentioned before, the BEA's treatment of inventories can introduce noise and seriously distort the headline number over short terms -- which the BEA admits by also publishing a secondary headline that excludes the impact of inventories. This BEA "bottom line" (their "Real Final Sales of Domestic Product") reported a much more respectable +2.93% growth rate for the third quarter.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
The Deteriorating U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Despite doubling the national debt and the expansion of the money supply to some $8 trillion since the beginning of Obummer’s misbegotten presidency, the U.S. economy is once again in a free fall. Actually, there has been no real recovery, but a continual deterioration of living standards despite the lies and distortions from the financial media and government authorities.
Conditions, however, are now descending at an even faster pace.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2015
U.S. Economic Recovery Failure to Launch / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. A deep bench of excuses, ranging from the weather to the Chinese economy, has been called on to justify why the economy hasn't built up any noticeable steam, and why the Fed has failed to move rates off zero, where they have been for seven years. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. The report should make it abundantly clear that we are far closer to recession than recovery. But old notions die hard and, shockingly, most economists still believe that we have hit a temporary speed bump not a brick wall. But at some point healthy hope turns into dangerous delusion. We may have just turned that corner.
Monday, September 28, 2015
Economic Channels of Distress - Fourth Turning Crisis of Trust / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I will focus on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis.
There are very few people left on this earth who lived through the last Fourth Turning (1929 - 1946). The passing of older generations is a key component in the recurring cycles which propel the world through the seemingly chaotic episodes that paint portraits on the canvas of history. The current alignment of generations is driving this Crisis and will continue to give impetus to the future direction of this Fourth Turning. The alignment during a Fourth Turning is always the same: Old Artists (Silent) die, Prophets (Boomers) enter elderhood, Nomads (Gen X) enter midlife, Heroes (Millennials) enter young adulthood -- and a new generation of child Artists (Gen Y) is born. This is an era in which America's institutional life is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up -- always in response to a perceived threat to the nation's very survival.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
U.S. Economy Future Expectations Made Six Months Ago vs. Today's Reality / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
On Thursday, I noted Bloomberg's comment "Something Very Wrong" with the manufacturing sector.
More completely, Bloomberg stated "There may very well be something wrong with the manufacturing sector, at least in the Northeast where the Empire State index has been in deep negative ground for the last two months followed now by a minus 6.0 headline for the Philly Fed index."
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Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Empire Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production All Miss / Economics / US Economy
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A trifecta of misses in today's US economic releases may not be a game-changer in Thursday's Fed decision because the game is already "unchanged". The September Empire Fed survey posted another double digit decline to remain at 6-year lows, August retail sales rose 0.3% to miss expectations for the sixth consecutive month and industrial production fell 0.4% in August to post seven declines over the past eight months--the worst pattern since 2008-9.
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Monday, September 14, 2015
Congress Fiddles Whilst the U.S. Economy Burns / Politics / US Economy
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Reports that the official unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1 percent may appear to vindicate the policies of easy money, corporate bailouts, and increased government spending. However, even the mainstream media has acknowledged that the official numbers understate the true unemployment rate. This is because the government's unemployment figures do not include the 94 million Americans who have given up looking for work or who have settled for part-time employment. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics estimates the real unemployment rate is between 23 and 24 percent.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2015
Last Week’s Top News Had Nothing to Do With the Stock Market / Economics / US Economy
By: ...
Here’s the news: The U.S. Commerce Department sharply revised upward its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate. The agency now says the value of all goods and services in the nation for the second quarter grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.7% – that’s 61% higher than its earlier forecast.
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Friday, August 28, 2015
U.S. Economic Fundamentals 'Look Good' - Bullard of St. Louis Fed / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard spoke with Bloomberg's Brendan Greeley, Michael McKee and Tom Keene from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. He spoke about the outlook for monetary policy, the U.S. economy and recent market volatility.
Bullard said that while world financial markets are volatile, U.S. fundamentals are good: "I'm not denying it's a volatile period. But let me say this. U.S. fundamentals look good….The key question for the committee, and no decisions have been made here, but the key question for the committee is would you want to change the outlook based on the volatility that we've seen over the last 10 days? And I think the answer is going to be not very much."
Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Services ISM Soar, ADP Disappoints / Economics / US Economy
By: Ashraf_Laidi
USD recovered from a disappointing ADP reading to rally across the board when the headline July services ISM hit a 10-year high of 60.3 from June's 56.0. The employment component soared to a 10-year high of 59.6, posting the biggest monthly increase in the history of ISM/NAPM report.
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Thursday, July 09, 2015
U.S. Economy Slouches toward Recession as Eurozone Crisis Widens / Economics / US Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Stefan Gleason writes: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen may have missed her window of opportunity to raise interest rates. The economic data no longer paint a picture of even a tepid recovery. Since the start of the year, key indicators for the economy began pointing toward recession.
Add to that the recent Eurozone chaos surrounding the Greek default and a 30% crash in the Chinese stock market, and economic pressures are growing by the day.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2015
The Fed’s Failed Efforts to Right the U.S. Economic Ship / Economics / US Economy
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes:
According to a recent Federal Reserve report, American wealth clocked in at $99 trillion in the first quarter of 2015, setting a new record. More than two-thirds of this is in paper assets, with the remaining third in housing and other assets.While the value of all consumer real estate has yet to eclipse its previous peak set in 2006, the equity and debt markets have ramped up over the past six years… even as economic activity remains sluggish and wages stagnant. This probably has a little bit to do with the Fed printing over $4 trillion and force-feeding all the money to the banking system. Read full article... Read full article...