Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age”

Economics / US Economy Mar 25, 2015 - 10:35 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Economics

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Recently I received a very thoughtful comment from a subscriber.

In response to “The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices,” Ramon had this to say about playing “the Iran card:”

Dr. Moors,

I find your updates very helpful in cutting through the chatter. After spending a large amount of time and resources trying to understand petroleum related energy, I developed this question.


If the budgets of OPEC and Non-OPEC oil dependent governments need in excess of $100bbl pricing to sustain their budgets, doesn’t this also signal that increases in the longer term will exceed that pricing?

I understand capital resets, restructures and bad bond debts will be had. However, since gold is “off the balance” sheets for fiscal responsibility, I surmise that black gold is not and therefore due to its world wide availability, this consumable will act as an asset class to sustain dependent governments in the long run.

While 2015 and 2016 will likely see WTI prices range from $55-$75 a barrel, I am developing an idea that 2017 and beyond will be significant or at least until other larger sources such as Nat Gas or Nuclear energy can ramp up.

Sorry for the long comment but what’s the longer play here? Is it oil, nat gas, or nuclear?

Now, I admit that I don’t respond to reader queries as often as I should, but Ramon’s comments deserve their due.

Here’s my response…

How OPEC’s “Non-Move” Changed Everything

Thanks for such an astute set of observations Ramon, and no, your note isn’t too long.

Your insightful comments correctly point to three considerations all energy investors need to heed moving forward.

Each of them are issues I have addressed in previous articles, but it’s nice to take this opportunity to bring them together all in one place.

First, there is a growing disconnect between what some major international oil producers need in the way of prices to balance their budgets and what the market can actually justify.

Traditionally, this tenuous balance has been maintained by cutting supply. However, OPEC’s “non-move” on Thanksgiving last year changed this trajectory, at least in the near term.

Today it’s all about defending market share and quite a bit less about balancing budgets.

That means the pivotal issue of the cost per barrel has taken a back seat to cutting export volumes. As a result, we are certain to witness more protracted fiscal crises in the future, since the overall pricing picture is no longer based on what the producer needs in the way of revenue.

And yes, Ramon, you are correct: under the “old rules” prices could move up to meet budgetary needs. The main international producers were called the “price makers” for a reason.

But not anymore.

The game changer here is the unconventional shale and tight oil that has once again transformed the U.S. into the global production leader. That not only has taken a major consumer off the table, but has also introduced a completely new dynamic to the pricing calculation.

Today, the battle for market share pits OPEC against the U.S. shale patch, with a secondary battle being waged against Russian exports.

But, as I’ve noted in the past, over 80% of the available shale oil worldwide is located outside North America. That means OPEC is attempting to work out a strategy through its competition with American producers that can be used in other parts of the world.

Remember, the bulk of U.S. crude is not being exported yet. Once that happens, OPEC will have an even bigger problem on their hands. OPEC may still control 40% of the world’s oil production, but that doesn’t buy what it used to.

Today, the “call on OPEC” has become the “call on shale.”

Oil Prices are Headed Higher, But Not Enough to Save the Day

So what does all of this mean for oil prices down the road?

A number of factors are emerging that indicate oil prices will be going up, but hardly to the levels needed by the countries most dependent on oil revenues. In short, we’re not headed back to triple-digit oil prices any time soon.

The biggest obstacle to triple-digit oil prices in 2017 and beyond will be the leveling effect of the international availability of shale and tight oil. As it stands, the essential level of profitability without hedging for U.S. shale producers is still about $75-$80 a barrel.

As the market approaches this price range, additional unconventional production will kick in, keeping a lid on additional advances absent a major geopolitical crisis.

The single most important change is this: Virtually no amount of increased demand can spike oil prices in the face of a readily available supply.

Second, you are right Ramon. Oil is becoming an “on book” fiscal tool.

In fact, I have discussed how oil was becoming the new “gold standard” on several occasions here in OEI. Another chapter in this story has unfolded over the last six months.

The connections between oil prices on the one hand and currency forex values, gross domestic product, and employment on the other have become more marked and direct.

Oil is already a “store of value” and will continue to be so moving forward… even as other sources of energy make greater contributions to a new energy balance.

And that leads me to the final observation occasioned by your comments.

The longer-term play involves a wide range of energy sources. The new energy balance I often refer to is developing with remarkable speed. While oil will be the central piece for some time to come, it will no longer maintain the dominance it enjoyed in the past.

As a result, there will be major profit moves to be made across the spectrum, featuring investments in oil, natural gas, renewables, and nuclear, along with advances in energy technology, efficiency, and smart grids.

For those still searching for a magical silver bullet – a single energy solution to replace oil – they are simply looking in the wrong place.

The future of the energy world will undoubtedly be multi-dimensional.  We’re at the dawn of a “new energy age” and it’s going to be a remarkable ride.

Source :http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2015/03/were-at-the-dawn-of-a-new-energy-age/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2015 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in