Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, September 12, 2010
Britains Population Growth and Ageing Demographics Impact on UK House Prices / Housing-Market / Demographics
The long-term battle being played in the UK housing market is that of new build supply always trying to play catchup with ever increasing demand as a consequence of the UK's growing population and changing demographics which is set against many other developed countries that are either experiencing falling populations such as Germany or have ample space to build far beyond that demanded as a consequence of population growth such as the United States. Therefore this analysis as part of a series on the UK housing market seeks to gauge the likely impact of population growth and demographics on UK house prices over the next 10 years.
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Thursday, September 09, 2010
Should You Buy a House Now? / Housing-Market / US Housing
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Recently, we have had a number of queries about real estate. And no wonder. For starters, real estate prices have come down. Plus, in an environment with next to zero interest rates, the idea of possibly picking up some income-producing property on the cheap holds a certain appeal to some. Then there’s the fact that real estate is very much a “tangible” – and so should hold up reasonably well, should the fiat currency system come undone, as we expect it will before this crisis is over.
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Monday, September 06, 2010
The U.S. Unreal Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
The peak was 60 - 61 months ago. The historical peak to trough real estate prices is 46+ months. 01/10 was the low for the 4.5 yr. decline that began in the summer of 2005.
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Friday, September 03, 2010
Double-Dip Recession Deepens as U.S. Housing Market Collapses / Housing-Market / US Housing
The Double-Dip recession I’ve been predicting for some time is deepening. And nowhere is the emergence of this powerful economic force more clear than in the housing market.
All the fresh economic data confirms that home sales are weakening … home inventories are rising … and home price pressure is building.
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Friday, September 03, 2010
UK House Prices and GDP Growth Trends Analysis / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Whilst many methods have been utilised for determining future housing market price trends such as average earnings, mortgage interest rates, currency valuations, real terms inflation adjusted valuations, comparison against other global housing markets and real disposable earnings, this analysis seeks to add real UK housing market analysis against UK GDP growth. The assumption here is that the value of assets should over the long-run increase in inline with a countries actual economic growth rate as measured by gross domestic product.
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Thursday, September 02, 2010
UK House Prices Fall For Second Consecutive Month / Housing-Market / UK Housing
- House prices fell by 0.9% in August
- Three month rate of change shows price stagnation over the summer
- Percentage of borrowers on variable rates has increased
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
U.S. Housing Sales Slump Whilst China's Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing
I’m back in Montana for a short visit and I am really enjoying my time here.
I’ve hiked around two of my very favorite spots in the world, Jewell Basin area of the Flathead National Forest and Glacier National Park, and even picked a couple buckets of wild huckleberries. Fortunately, I did not run into any grizzly bears, but I didn’t see Huckleberry Hound either.
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Little Hope for the U.S. Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
Jon D. Markman writes: Just when you thought the housing market couldn't get worse, it did.
New single-family home sales slumped 12.4% in July to a record-low annual rate of 276,000 units, as homebuyers shunned their realtors in the absence of government support. The consensus expectation was for a slight up-tick to a 333,000 unit annual rate, so I suppose it's time to throw out the models. Sales over the prior three months were also revised lower by 9,000 units.
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Sunday, August 29, 2010
U.S. Home Sales Drop 27% In July And Things Are Only Going To Get Worse / Housing-Market / US Housing
On Tuesday the National Association of Realtors announced that existing home sales in the United States dropped a whopping 27.2% in the month of July. The consensus among analysts was that we would see a drop of around 13 percent, so when the 27 percent figure was announced it sent a shock through world financial markets.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Why Are U.S. Home Sales Plummeting? Huge Waves of Foreclosures Coming down the Pike / Housing-Market / US Housing
The government opted to try to prop up prices. Indeed, as I have repeatedly pointed out, the government's entire strategy has been to try to artificially prop up the prices of all types of assets.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
U.S. New Home Sales Housing Market Forecast 2010 to 2020 / Housing-Market / US Housing
A bubble is like if you have a flat pond, and you throw a pebble in.
First there is an “up” wave; that you can ride (if you are smart or lucky); then there is a “down” wave, and the size and the shape of the down that follows the up is predicated by the size and the shape of the preceding up.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Record Drop in U.S. Home Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
Sales of existing US homes in July plunged by a record 27.2 percent from the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors.
The virtual collapse in home sales affected every region of the country and was more than twice as bad as anticipated by economic analysts, who had forecast a drop of 12.1 percent. Sales fell to 3.83 million units, compared to June’s downwardly revised figure of 5.26 million.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Moribund U.S. Housing Market Threatens to Kill Economic Recovery / Housing-Market / US Housing
Don Miller writes: The weak housing market, which has traditionally led the U.S. economy out of recent recessions, this time may put an end to the economic recovery.
Existing home sales plummeted by a record 27% to their lowest level in 15 years in July and inventories soared, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported yesterday (Tuesday). Home re-sales, which account for 90% of the total market, dropped to an annual rate of 3.83 million in July. And inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, putting them at their highest level in more than a decade.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Holocaust, Existing Home Sales Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
Don't look now, but someone just pushed the housing market off a cliff. The National Association of Realtors announced on Tuesday that the sales of existing homes fell a staggering 27.2 percent to a seasonably adjusted rate of 3.83 million units. This is the lowest number of sales since 1995. The reaction on Wall Street has been swift, shares plunged in a wild sell-off that pushed stocks down more than 100 points in a matter of minutes. US Treasuries rallied on the news sending bond yields lower as jittery investors sought safety from the ongoing avalanche of dismal economic data. The 10-year slid to 2.49% while the 2 year note dipped to 0.46%. Bond yields are a gauge of investor pessimism. At present, confidence in the management of the economy is at its nadir.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
U.S. Existing Home Sales Crash 27%, Treasury Bond Yields Hit New Lows / Housing-Market / US Housing
In yet another clean sweep, the third in a week or so, sales of existing homes dropped twice as much as expected, worse than every economist forecast, to a 15 year low. Inventory soared to 12.5 month, the highest since 1999. Treasury yields plunged with yield on the 10-year note falling as low as 2.50 and the 2-year note hitting a new all-time low at .47%.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
How Investors Can Earn 18% Without Buying a Single Stock / Housing-Market / Investing 2010
I recently put one of my townhomes on the housing market to sell. It has been completely remodeled and is in a great location at a price that is the lowest in the area and by far the cheapest when compared to similar units in square footage, location and finish out. (No, I'm not trying to sell you my home.)
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Monday, August 23, 2010
Let the U.S. Housing Market Normalize! / Housing-Market / US Housing
Recently there have been some encouraging signs that Congress is finally willing to admit what should have been evident two years ago. Even after a $150 billion bailout, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still bankrupt and should be abolished. Indeed Rep. Barney Frank, a longtime champion of Fannie and Freddie has made a few statements alluding to this and I have signed on to a letter asking him to clarify his remarks and hold hearings on this topic. There seems to be a growing consensus in favor of abolishing Fannie and Freddie. This is the good news.
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Monday, August 23, 2010
U.S. Housing Market and Sector Stocks at Significant Crossroads / Housing-Market / Housing Stocks
In 2005 I used cyclical analysis to identify the top in housing. That topping process was covered in a series of articles posted here in 2005 and into 2006, as the topping process matured and then eventually became obvious to all. Cyclically, housing is now at another important crossroads.
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Sunday, August 22, 2010
First Time Buyer UK Housing Mortgage Market The Toughest For Decades / Housing-Market / UK Housing
Today's first time buyer entering the housing market will borrow more money and raise a larger deposit than at any other point over the past 25 years, with the price of a first home now 4.6 times higher than the average gross salary in the UK. This growing financial commitment means that it is more important than ever for first time buyers - who account for 38% of all house purchases in the UK* - to be able to sift through the mass of information available and ensure they can make educated choices about their house purchase - from considering whether to rent or buy, through to putting in an offer, exchanging contracts and moving in.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010
Banks Enjoying Record Profit Margins on UK Mortgages at Borrowers and Tax Payers Expense / Housing-Market / Mortgages
Britain has been increasingly operating under an artificial tax payer supported banking system for the past 2 years that exists primarily to funnel tax payer cash onto the balance sheets of the bailed out bankrupt banks by means of capital injections, artificially low interest rates to generate unprecedented margins on loans against savings rates that persistently pay significantly below the rate of inflation and many other mechanisms such as Quantitative Easing which allows banks to borrow from the Bank of England at 0.5% and invest in longer dated government bonds at zero risk at 3.5%, thus generating a 3% risk free profit on tax payer cash.
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