Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, May 09, 2009
Recession Ending?, Green Shoots of Economic Recovery? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
A Few Thoughts on Recessions
Are the Green Shoots Really Dandelion Weeds?
Is That a Leaky Bucket?
Frugality Is Back in Vogue
Where Will the Jobs Come From?
Go to Google. Type in "green shoots." In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readers will be surprised to know that the number of people employed in the US went up (!) in April. Yet so did the unemployment rate. Is that green shoot just another dandelion weed in our economic garden?
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Friday, May 08, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Rate Soars to 8.9%, Jobs Contract for 16th Straight Month / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the April Employment Report. Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.7 million jobs have been lost. In April, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all major private-sector industries. Overall, private sector employment fell by 611,000.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Did the Bilderberg Group Plan the Economic Depression II? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Global_Research
Paul Watson writes: Elitists divided on whether to quickly sink economy and replace it with new world order, or set in motion long, agonizing depression.
On the eve of the 2009 Bilderberg Group conference, which is due to be held May 14-17 at the 5 star Nafsika Astir Palace Hotel in Vouliagmeni, Greece, investigative reporter Daniel Estulin has uncovered shocking details of what the elitists plan to do with the economy over the course of the next year.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
This is Not the 1930’s Depression, Which Means High Inflation to Come / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pollaro
Many comparisons have been made between today’s financial and economic crisis and the Great Depression, none more than the specter of deflation. Well, contrary to what happened during the Great Depression and contrary to the deflationary forecasts of government leaders, central bankers and economists, deflation, while always possible, is, in this man’s opinion, highly unlikely. Why’s that? Because the monetary and political framework of today is nothing like that of the early 1930’s. In fact, it’s nothing like anything seen, ever. Quite simply, today’s monetary and political framework is built for inflation, as much inflation as the government, the Federal Reserve and their banking partners want. And inflation, and a whole lot of it, is exactly what we are about to get.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
China Succeeds in Fighitng Recession, Driving Gold, Stock and Commodities Higher / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Browne
This week, based on indicators of improving Chinese manufacturing activity, commodity and stock markets surged in the Pacific Rim. It appears that China's recession-fighting policies are being judged successful. The 41 percent rally in Chinese stocks in 2009 from the 2008 lows dwarfs the single digit rallies in the U.S. and Europe. With Western economies still sluggish, eyes are turning eastward for solutions to the global economic riddle. As such, recent hints at the direction of Chinese monetary policy should be closely regarded.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Looking Back at the Greatest Economic Depression 2009 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: LewRockwell
Gerald Celente writes: On average, world trade fell 31 percent in January 2009. To varying degrees, recession and depression gripped globally. “The outlook for global consumption remains bleak. Exports are likely to remain lackluster until global consumers regain their appetite for consumption,” wrote Jing Ulrich, managing director at JPMorgan in Hong Kong, in response to the dire data.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
United States to Recovery from Recession by the End of 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
The head of the United States Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke addressing the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress said that the American economy may recover from the nosedive and start to grow again as early as this year. Even in this case the business activity will remain restrained: companies will be careful with creating new working places. The level of unemployment will be high still and may get even higher in the next months.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Debt Fuelled Tax Payer Bailouts and Economic Stimulus: If You Believe Borrowing Leads to Prosperity / Economics / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
The 1970’s were a simpler time. As kids, we listened to All The Young Dudes by Mott the Hoople on our portable record players. We would cut Monkees’ .98s from the back of our Raisin Bran cereal boxes. There were maybe ten TV stations we could watch. For entertainment we would play board games like The Game of Life, Monopoly, and Risk. I remember having a two day Risk match with friends from our neighborhood. Our parents didn’t smother us with attention. We created our own fun. We organized our own roller hockey league with games played in our back alley and on the side streets of our neighborhood. We played half-ball against the back of our row homes.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Misleading Jobless Claims Economic Data and Recessions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Tim_Iacono
One of the many "green shoots" that has popped up recently for the U.S. economy is the possible peaking of weekly jobless claims, what has been increasingly referred to as a "reliable" indicator for the end of recessions since 1967 when this data was first collected. The chart below, similar to the one published by CR in this item from a couple weeks ago shows the correlation.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Emerging Markets Recovering First From the Economic Crisis / Economics / Articles
By: Pravda
The world community has been eagerly devouring the good news for the past few days. The news comes from the East. First of all, China gives us hope that the crisis is going to end. Analysts speak about the inspiring perspectives of all BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). Experts say that the countries have no debt burden, which is obviously their main advantage. Nevertheless, despite the market growth, the real conditions of the Russian economy are far from being favorable.
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Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Stock Markets See Patches of Blue Sky in Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: PaddyPowerTrader
So much for the great recession. The improvement in risk appetite has continued unabated into this week. Firmer US housing data, construction spend and Chinese PMI numbers (which rose for the first time in 9 months), combined with declining bank worries and easing swine flu concerns boosted risk appetite. To top that off, Research In Motion and Intel were upgraded and Sprint Nextel earnings beat estimates. But it appears to this writer that euphoria has got the better of common sense.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Wages Contract in US, UK, Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are investigating trends in wages, disposable income, and ability to service debt.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Extremely High Debt Levels Ensure Subdued Economic Recovery in 2010 / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Late last week a letter from Jim Welsh crossed my desk. I started reading and found myself being pulled through his very thoughtful letter. I have not met Jim, but think this letter is worthy of an Outside the Box. Jim Welsh of Welsh Money Management has been publishing his monthly investment letter, "The Financial Commentator", since 1985. His analysis focuses on Federal Reserve monetary policy, and how policy affects the economy and the financial markets.
Monday, May 04, 2009
Gold-Exchange Standard, Gold, and Monetary Freedom / Economics / Economic Theory
By: LewRockwell
Michael S. Rozeff writes: Two major government economists, Christina D. Romer and Ben Bernanke, have done influential research on the Great Depression. Both implicate the State-run gold standard of that era, which differed from the pre-1914 gold standard, as a major culprit in the Great Depression. (See here and here.) Their work parallels that of other economists such as Barry Eichengreen and Peter Temin on the negative role of the interwar gold exchange standard. There is an emerging or existing consensus among economists about the negative effects of the gold-exchange standard.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 03, 2009
U.S. Economic Recovery Lies Hidden in a Zipper / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Pravda
Many people prefer not to spend their money on new clothes. Purchasing new clothes is not considered essential these days, especially for those who have to spend several minutes or even hours thinking what they are going to wear today. However, the current state of affairs in the jeans-making industry shows that better times for fancy clothes are just around the corner.
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Sunday, May 03, 2009
When Will the Economy Recover from Recession? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Standard & Poor’s: S&P/Case-Shiller - home prices still declining “Data through February 2009, released today [Tuesday] by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 10 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 15 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus February 2008. For the first time in 16 months, however, the annual decline of the 10-City and 20-City composites did not set a new record.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Recession Ending and Stocks Sell in May and Go Away? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
Sell in May and Go Away?
The End of the Recession?
Is the US Consumer Back?
A Dangerous End Game
The old adage that one should "sell in May and walk away" has been around for years. I mentioned that bromide about this time last year, urging readers to head for the sidelines if they had not already done so. I was also suggesting a strategic retreat in August of 2006 (after which the markets went up 20% before plummeting). In this week's letter we look at the actual data and offer up a fresh viewpoint. Then we turn our eyes to the recent GDP numbers, which were awful, though many took comfort in the apparent rise in consumer spending. Are Americans back to their old ways? It will make for an interesting letter.
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Saturday, May 02, 2009
Lessons From the Great Depression, Next Great Depression II? / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Submissions
Phill Tomlinson writes: A great deal can be learnt through history. In a practical sense its completely useless, as it merely just documents past events, but past events can help explain current and possible future events. If you can never get to grips with a subject matter it is best to look at history to try and to identify possible similarities. I have taken some quotes from a historical book and I think a lot of the quotes below could be said of the current situation we find ourselves in.
Saturday, May 02, 2009
Real Economy Continues to Sink Despite Economic Stimulus and Bear Market Rally / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Whitney
The economy continued to shrink in the first quarter of 2009 at an annual pace of 6.1 percent, making it the worst recession in more than 50 years. Gross Domestic Product slipped into negative territory from January to March for back-to-back quarters of negative 6 percent growth. The news of falling GDP was preceded on Tuesday by a dismal housing report which showed that housing prices have continued their historic downward plunge with only modest improvement. Since their peak in July 2006, housing prices have dropped 31 percent, falling 18.6 percent in the last year alone. The rate of decline has decelerated slightly but--on their present trajectory--prices are on target to tumble 45 to 50 percent from their 2006 highs. Another 20 percent loss in home equity means another $4 trillion loss for US homeowners.
Friday, May 01, 2009
The Fallacy of Free Trade / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Christopher_Quigley
"The causes of wealth are something totally different from wealth itself. A person may possess wealth i.e. exchangeable value; if, however, he does not possess the power of producing objects of more value than he consumes, he will become poorer. A person may be poor, if he, however possesses the power of producing a larger amount of valuable articles than he consumes, he becomes rich.