Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Here Comes Stagflation! / Economics / Stagflation
By: Sy_Harding
It’s official. The U.S. economic recovery is stumbling again, as indicated by Thursday’s report that GDP growth plunged to only 1.8% in the 1st quarter (from 3.1% growth in the previous quarter). And spiking oil, food, and other commodity prices have inflation on the rise.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Goolsbee on the Slowdown in U.S. Economic Growth, Bernanke Concern Over S&P Rating / Economics / US Economy
By: Bloomberg
Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, spoke to Bloomberg TV's Hans Nichols about today's report showing the U.S. economy slowed more than forecast in Q1. Goolsbee said about the S&P's judgment about the U.S.'s triple A rating was "a data point" and he also said that 2011 and 2011 are "still looking fairly positive" for economic growth. Goolsbee appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line."
Friday, April 29, 2011
U.S. 2011 Q1 Real GDP Economic Growth One of the Three Smallest Gains of the Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real GDP of the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 3.1% increase in the prior quarter. Of the seven quarters of economic growth recorded in the current recovery, the first quarter's performance is one of the three readings which have been below 2.0% (see Chart 1).
Friday, April 29, 2011
Dyseconomics: The New Macro Econ and The Greatest Economic Boom Ever / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Cetin Hakimoglu writes:
*warning the views of this summary may appear bunt, infuriating, and or egregious, but this is my analysis about why things are the way they (normative economic Natalie Bassingthwaighte s) versus a populist feel-good rant about the fed or shadow banking. *
Thursday, April 28, 2011
IMF Forecast: Can China Really Overtake the U.S. Economy by 2016? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "World Economic Outlook," China's output will surpass that of the United States in 2016 - only five years from now.
But don't worry. The IMF calculation is based on "purchasing power parity" (PPP), which does not reflect real money. It relies on projecting China's stellar growth rates five years into the future. And it relies on Chinese official statistics, which are more than a little questionable.
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Thursday, April 28, 2011
Rick Ackerman Abandons 30 Years of Deflation Mantra, Defecting to Hyperinflation Camp / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Gary_North
Every once in a while, some famous defender of a position switches without warning to the rival position. A famous atheist becomes a believer in God (Antony Flew). A famous Protestant becomes a Catholic (Richard John Neuhaus). A famous Chicago School economist becomes a Keynesian (Richard Posner). These events are unexpected, especially by the people who make the switch. When it happens, the former disciples are left high and dry.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Growth and Inflation Equals Growthflation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Hampson
It's an awkward term, but its what we've got: growth AND inflation. And the US Fed yesterday made it clear they will continue to support both.
Growthflation makes for big nominal gains in stocks and commodities, even if less in real terms, and that means little incentive on the short side. Eventually we will see excessive inflation and overtightening kill growth, but right now we see strong leading indicators together with a continued policy of stimulus from the Fed (QE2 into the end of June, reinvestment of maturing securities for a few months after that, and most likely rates on hold until 2012), a recipe for more growth and more inflation. Essentially the Fed is keen to bring back those 7 million lost jobs (employment being the notorious laggard) and continues to talk down inflation.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Fed Wants Even Higher Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
Today, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it will continue to purchase government securities as previously announced ("QE2"), including reinvesting principal payments from its holdings.
The FOMC downgraded its economic growth forecast, acknowledged inflationary pressures have moved from commodity inflation to core inflation, yet insists inflation remains too low. The Fed considers inflationary pressures to be transitory, but monitors the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Net Trade Deficits - A Leading Indicator of U.S. Economic Woes! / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Many people think the root cause of the current U.S. economic problems is the sub-mortgage debacle. I certainly think that is a major contributor both to those problems, and to the timing of them. However, I believe (and have believed since 2005 when I first started to seriously study the U.S. and its evolving place in the world economic order) that what is happening now would have happened eventually absent the sub-prime crisis - albeit many years from now.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The Most Reliable Measure of Real Consumer Price Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Bill_Bonner
We’ve always wondered why there is so much debate about the rate of inflation. It seems like such a simple thing to track. You go in the store. You buy a box of Wheaties. You write down the price. Next month, you do the same thing. What’s so hard about that?
But what if the box is smaller next month? What if the Wheaties are twice as good? What if you can get the same enjoyment from a box of Wheatie-Puffs at half the price?
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Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Can We Give The Hyperinflation Thing a Rest? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Whitney
The Federal Reserve is not going to push the economy into Zimbabwean hyperinflation. That's pure bunkum. The Fed's plan is to weaken the dollar to boost exports and to force China to let its currency appreciate to its fair-market value. The policy should help to lower the US's bulging current account deficit. By purchasing $600 billion in US Treasuries (QE2), the Fed effectively reduces the supply of risk-free assets, which sends investors into riskier assets like stocks and commodities. Is there an element of class warfare in the policy?
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
QE2 and the Fate of the U.S. Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: David_Galland
By David Galland, Casey Research : In the last few weeks, I’ve become particularly “attentive” to the intentions of Fed policy makers following the scheduled June end date for QE2.
This is no small matter; an actual shift in Fed policy – as opposed to the smoke and mirrors sort – could temporarily play havoc on equities and commodities markets alike. How could it be otherwise, when under QE2 the Fed has been writing checks to the Treasury in amounts of upwards of $100 billion a month since last November?
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Tuesday, April 26, 2011
QE2 is Damaging the U.S. Economy and Reducing GDP Growth / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Dian_L_Chu
QE2 is going to go down as one of the worst monetary policy initiatives in the history of the modern Federal Reserve era. On almost any metric applied, QE2 ends up not only falling well short of its proposed goals, but actually turns certain metrics like GDP growth negative compared with the prior quarter, and heading in the wrong direction.
Monday, April 25, 2011
Inflation is No Miracle Cure, Impossible to Inflation Out of this Mess / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading The "Miracle" of Compound Inflation by John Mauldin. Here are a few paragraphs worthy of a closer look.
Read full article... Read full article...Albert Einstein is famously quoted as saying, "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world." And compounding is indeed the topic of this week's shorter than usual letter, but compounding not of interest but of inflation.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Deepening Economic Crisis: Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Surge in the Price of Gold and Silver / Economics / Inflation
By: Bob_Chapman
Economic recovery does not seem to be taking effect in spite of more massive expenditures by Congress and the Fed. The IMF says financial stability has improved, but then again their vision is almost always clouded. US tax revenues are not increasing in a meaningful way, manufacturing struggles to expand and Wall Street flourishes in a cascade of mega salaries and bonuses. In another six months the US will be three years what the government, the media and Wall Street call a deep recession. We call it an inflationary depression, which has existed for 26 months. After eight years of increasing money and credit, and the creation of a real estate bubble, the Fed has been fighting off asset destruction with ever more money and credit accompanied by debt deflation. Part of the Fed’s policy has been zero interest rates, which has helped Wall Street and banking and to a limited extent real estate, but has destroyed the purchasing power of retirees and has driven funds into speculation, which in many cases has ended in ever more losses and less buying power.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
The 'Miracle' of Compound Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Albert Einstein is famously quoted as saying, "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world." And compounding is indeed the topic of this week's shorter than usual letter, but compounding not of interest but of inflation. As you might expect, I am giving a great deal of thought as to how we get out of our current financial dilemma of too much debt and deficits that are far too high. While I will use US data for our illustration, the principles are the same for any country.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
BRIC Inflation, GDP, Stock Indexes, Monetary Policy Economic Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: EconGrapher
This week the focus goes to the giants of the emerging markets, the "BRIC" economies (the economic/investment one, not the political club). In this edition we review inflation, GDP, monetary policy and the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Also thrown in is a quick review of the monetary policy decisions over the past week.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
The Deflation Threat is Still Alive, Here's Why / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
"Every excess causes a defect; every defect an excess. Every sweet hath its sour...The waves of the sea do not more speedily seek a level from their loftiest tossing, than the varieties of condition tend to equalize themselves."
This quote comes from Ralph Waldo Emerson's essay, "Compensation." He opens the essay with a poem which includes these two lines:
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Friday, April 22, 2011
Whiff of Decelerating Trend in Second Tier U.S. Economic Reports / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The March employment report, including a 8.8% unemployment rate and a gain of 230,000 private sector jobs, set a bullish tone early in the month, but today's reports are sending a different message. Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 403,000 during the week ended April 16. The four-week moving average at 399,000 has moved up 391,000 posted four weeks ago.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Fear the Economic Boom, Not the Bust / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: All of the industrial world's central banks and public treasuries currently are engaged in an impossible exercise — trying to reinflate an artificially created boom through zero interest rates and deficit spending. The reality is that the current financial crisis was caused by central-bank money expansion, so it cannot be cured by further money expansion. It is as if a doctor is continuing to bleed a patient who is already bleeding to death.