Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
US Dollar Bullish and Bearish Scenarios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: You can never actually know for sure what's going to happen on any given day, in any given market. And it's thinking you do know that can get you into real trouble.
Instead, you should think about the markets in terms of probabilities. I believe that is the real key to successful trading.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
'EURANIUM': The Weaponized Fiat Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Like its metallic counterpart, the euro currency has the tendency to make other currencies it comes into contact with more like itself – radioactive. The inevitable result is the death of (natural) national currency systems.
The Nature of the Euro-Beast
The euro’s architects have recognized that the worldwide dollar-reserve system cannot be sustained. The reason: The US Fed’s dual – and conflicting - mandate of price-stability and full employment. The Fed was sold to Congress via the ‘hook’ that it would allow Congress to both control inflation and maximize employment if only Congress would agree to set up this version of a central bank in the US.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Central European Currencies Running Out of Steam / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The three major currencies of central Europe have appreciated strongly against the euro so far this year, boosted to varying degrees by rising interest rates, strong economic growth, and positive investor sentiment - the latter buoyed by the final confirmation that Slovakia will adopt the euro next January. However, there are some preliminary signs that the region's strong growth rates are about to slow. Interest rates may be at their peak in Poland and Hungary, and a rate cut may be in the cards in the Czech Republic. All of which suggests that the Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint may also have peaked for now.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Crisis Currencies Poised to Surge as Frightened Capital Flows from Risk to Safety / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: On various occasions in the past couple months, my editorial has tried to bring to light some of the bright spots, or shall I say "relatively less dark spots", in the U.S. economy.
Ultimately, I've tried to connect it to the dollar and its potential to temporarily buck (pun intended) its long-term bearish trend. Sometimes I've had it right, for a little while anyway, and other times I've had it wrong, or at least the market told me I did.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Buy $100 Billion Note on Ebay / Currencies / Emerging Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Full marks for eBay entrepreneurs for stepping in where forex traders have lost count of the zeros being added to the Zim dollar every few days. This is amid Zimbabwe's dizzying rate of inflation – officially quoted at 2.2 million per cent, but thought actually to be in the region of 12.5 million percent!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
British Pound, Euro Racing Lower Against a Resurgent US Dollar? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Black_Swan
The story so far this week was fired up yesterday via dollar positive comments from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (same old stuff) and monetary policy comments from Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser.
Bottom line: the US dollar zipped higher and is continuing its rocket-ride today.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Will the Euro Escape the Maladies Inflicting the U.S.Dollar ? / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Last week all was well, as no less a person as Paulson, the Treasury Secretary reassured us all that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were sufficiently capitalized. Last weekend a plan was put into effect to ensure their survival. The second largest bank failure ever in the States Indy Bank went bust. Many believe that we will see up to 150 U.S. banks go down in this worsening credit crunch. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Collapsing Fiat Currency In Need of a Golden Parachute with a Silver Lining / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Money served throughout history as a medium of exchange and as a storehouse of value. But when gold and silver coins were replaced by paper currencies, money no longer was the same. Paper money, no longer having intrinsic value, now functions only as a medium of exchange, a function that degrades over time.
The value of paper money continually loses value because the constant printing of paper money constantly dilutes the value of previously printed money. The more paper money printed, the less paper money is worth; and today, money is being printed at a faster rate than at any time in history.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Fiat Faith Based Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The Latin term "fiat" roughly translates to "there shall be". When we refer to fiat money, we are referring to money that exists because the government declares it into existence. It is not based on production or earnings, and not backed by any commodity. It is solely based on trusting the government. Fiat money is exchanged in the economy as long as there is faith in the government that issues it.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Ben Bernanke has Become the Destroyer of Worlds / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I love readers' comments at the end of online articles and blog entries. I recently came across one at the end of an article regarding general Federal Reserve policy that simply said:
"Ben Bernanke is like the death star. Destroyer of worlds."
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Friday, July 18, 2008
Currency Traders Are Convinced Of.. / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
... the Canadian dollar should be trading at par with the US dollar. We’re not sure exactly how traders became convinced, but this explains why we’ve seen a departure between the Canadian dollar’s correlation with commodities and commodity currencies.
At one point we’d have expected the Loonie to surge to new highs along-side crude oil and the Australian dollar. But we’ve found it just can’t shake the tight link between the US and Canadian economies.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Dollar Final Decent - Dangers 2008-2009 Part2 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Christopher_Laird
Part 2 talks about the world post the USD centric world economy. It looks out 1 to 3 years ahead. Part 1 talked about the immediate dangers to the world from a Middle East war, food and energy shortages, and inflation. It looked into late 08 and 09.This part talks about what would happen should the USD begin a final decent to far lower values.
We are now a full year into the credit implosion that started with the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in Summer of 07. So many dimensions of the world economy have changed dramatically for the worse since that pivotal event…
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Don't Buy the US Dollar Head Fake / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline.
Although some investors respond to such jawboning, the more sophisticated international players, who in large part determine the foreign exchange market, do not. Why the bearish sentiment despite the bullish talk from Washington?
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Australian Dollar Looking Over Extended Against US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
There is little doubt about the powerful run in Aussie—for good reason: 1) Strong economic growth, and 2) Highest yield among the major currencies.
Most analysts believe the next stop is par, or 1.000 against the US dollar. Another panic run out of the dollar likely leads to par. But on technicals alone (granted not too useful in a fear-driven market) the Aussie looks extended and due for a breather. Risk/reward!!
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
US Government to Intervene to Prevent US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mark_OByrne
While risk appetite has increased with equity markets having a renewed bout of misplaced exuberance, this is likely to be short lived as equity markets experience another dead cat bounce. Barclays reports overnight that their “sentiment-based equity risk indicator remains within extremely bearish territory, and suggests that equities may continue to sell-off aggressively.” Poor returns and volatility in equity markets internationally is leading to safe haven diversification into gold. With the outlook for equities and bonds looking increasingly uncertain (especially in the light of the onward march of inflation in the U.S. and internationally), gold is set to continue to outperform other major asset classes for the foreseeable future.
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Monday, July 14, 2008
Swiss Franc to Benefit from European Carry Trade Against British Pound / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Black_Swan
The ramp-up in credit risk in the market is huge. The pound is acting well today on the back of market risk. But, in the recent past the Swiss franc has been the star currency that has acted very well on risk, for two reasons we think:
1) Switzerland still hanging on to some reservoir of safe haven status in times of global trouble (and despite severing its gold link to its currency, it is still has a larger gold backing than any other of the major currencies).
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Monday, July 14, 2008
New Zealand Dollar Runs Out of Steam as Interest Rate Cuts Beckon / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Last week I told you the U.K. could see a worse economic downturn than the U.S., and said that would weigh heavily on the British currency.
Meanwhile, one of my readers who resides Down Under recently told me that he's afraid to trade the Australian dollar.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
US Dollar / Japanese Yen Homing in On Break Below 105 / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Black_Swan
A subscriber recently emailed us the other day and asked, “What happened to the Japanese yen?”
There was nothing else written in the email except that. And since nothing notable has really happened to the Japanese yen in the last few months, I can only assume he was asking why the Japanese yen disappeared from our radar.
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Friday, July 04, 2008
Three Conditions for Day Trading the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Yvonne_L_Marchant
Low Risk - High Reward – Does it exist? My friend who lives in Perth , Australia , has just come back from two weeks surfing in the beautiful blue waters of Sydney . Can you believe it? It is meant to be the middle of winter over that side of the world! Needless to say he hadn't been doing much trading. So to get him back into the swing of things, I was telling him about how I trade the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). Read full article... Read full article...