Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Swiss Franc to Benefit from European Carry Trade Against British Pound

Currencies / Forex Trading Jul 14, 2008 - 06:31 PM GMT

By: Black_Swan

Currencies

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe ramp-up in credit risk in the market is huge. The pound is acting well today on the back of market risk.  But, in the recent past the Swiss franc has been the star currency that has acted very well on risk, for two reasons we think:

1) Switzerland still hanging on to some reservoir of safe haven status in times of global trouble (and despite severing its gold link to its currency, it is still has a larger gold backing than any other of the major currencies).


2) Swiss likely still benefiting from European carry-trade status – Because of Swiss low interest rates, many actors across Europe funded a lot of risk asset investments and real estate (now becoming a risky asset); as they reduce this leverage and pay back Swiss denominated loans, the Swiss franc benefits accordingly.

Above is a daily chart of the British pound – Swiss franc cross rate.  We think the Swiss should outshine the pound on this ramp-up in risk.  If it does, we could see a sharp break lower out of this narrowing range.

From Chartpatterns.com:

“Symmetrical triangles can be characterized as areas of indecision.  A market pauses and future direction is questioned.  Typically, the forces of supply and demand at that moment are considered nearly equal.  Attempts to push higher are quickly met by selling, while dips are seen as bargains. Each new lower top and higher bottom becomes more shallow than the last, taking on the shape of a sideways triangle.  (It's interesting to note that there is a tendency for volume to diminish during this period.)  Eventually, this indecision is met with resolve and usually explodes out of this formation (often on heavy volume.)  Research has shown that symmetrical triangles overwhelmingly resolve themselves in the direction of the trend.  With this in mind, symmetrical triangles in my opinion, are great patterns to use and should be traded as continuation patterns.”

And as you can see when you step-back to the weekly chart, the trend in the pound – Swiss pair is definitely down…

Regards,

By Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital LLC

http://www.blackswantrading.com/

Black Swan Capital's Currency Snapshot is strictly an informational publication and does not provide individual, customized investment advice. The money you allocate to futures or forex should be strictly the money you can afford to risk. Detailed disclaimer can be found at http://www.blackswantrading.com/disclaimer.html

Currency Currents is available for only $49 per year. Just visit the sign-up page on our website to subscribe: http://www.blackswantrading.com/Currency_Currents.html

Black Swan Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Martinos
19 Jul 08, 07:43
Thx

Thanks for the interesting and informative site. That’s definitely what I’ve been looking for.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in