Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
US Dollar's Dramatic Rise Helps Level Currency Playing Field / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: After a dramatic two weeks in the currency market, I figured now is a good time to run through the recent action. Plus, I'll give you my outlook for the major currencies making the most noise. Let's get started ...
A Good Couple of Weeks for the Buck
I'll keep it simple: The U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy have undergone no structural changes. Their relatively improved status seems to rest mostly on the worsening state of their major competitors — especially the euro.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Yikes! Major Reversal in Fortunes for the US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Tell us again about the safe haven qualities of gold? It has been going straight down ever since Russia decided to spread its wings again. Maybe it’s just a correction. But maybe it is, as it has always seemed to us, that gold is only a reflection of global purchasing power that simply ebbs and flows with the world’s money and its safe have reputation is just that, reputation. And in case anyone was confused as to the world’s money; it is the financial gurus’ favorite whipping boy—the good old US dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
The Strong US Dollar Illusion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 15, 2008
US Dollar Short-Term Rebalancing of Expectations, Long Term Risk / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pause in the rate hike campaign at the European Central Bank and growing uncertainty regarding the prospects for economic growth in the United States dollar bulls that have been lurking in the shadows for the past several years have re-emerged with gusto over the past two weeks. Although, the late summer rally in the dollar that has seen its value increase roughly 8% against the Euro, the case for a sustainable reversal in the fortunes of the greenback is neither persuasive nor compelling. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
The Case For and Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shed some light on recent activity, we will focus on some key forces we believe act on the dollar and the currency markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Spreading Global Economic Weakness Is Positive for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
U.S. Dollar Soars Triggering Major Currency Breakouts / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate . The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.
The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be "particularly weak'' through the third quarter.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
US Dollar Bottoming? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Cai
Is the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?
Despite reports of cheaper prices for international travelers to the States due to the depreciated dollar, it would be wrong to safely conclude that U.S. goods are now so cheap at the existing exchange rate that the dollar must appreciate from its current level. Overall the price of American products is still too high to ease the massive trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
ECB Rate Freeze Boosts US Dollar Long-term Trend Change Probability / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates . The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy.
The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be "particularly weak" through the third quarter. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record. The Australian dollar declined for a ninth day, the longest stretch since 1980, as futures show the central bank will cut borrowing costs this year.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
Euro and US Dollar Headed Lower as Yen Carry Trade Continues to Unwind / Currencies / Yen Carry Trade
By: Richard_Gorton
An Elliott Wave 3 Down Commences In The EUR/JPYThe EUR/JPY fell lower today on increasing risk aversion to Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Fannie Mae, And Freddie Mac. It also fell lower with a massive sell off of the Chinese stocks.
Today's fall in the EUR/JPY has set in motion an Elliot Wave 3 Down in this currency pair, which will now cause disinvestment from stocks globally, not just from the BRICs, like it has been doing.
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Tuesday, August 05, 2008
US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Black_Swan
Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 04, 2008
US Dollar Bullish and Bearish Scenarios / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crook writes: You can never actually know for sure what's going to happen on any given day, in any given market. And it's thinking you do know that can get you into real trouble.
Instead, you should think about the markets in terms of probabilities. I believe that is the real key to successful trading.
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Saturday, August 02, 2008
'EURANIUM': The Weaponized Fiat Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Like its metallic counterpart, the euro currency has the tendency to make other currencies it comes into contact with more like itself – radioactive. The inevitable result is the death of (natural) national currency systems.
The Nature of the Euro-Beast
The euro’s architects have recognized that the worldwide dollar-reserve system cannot be sustained. The reason: The US Fed’s dual – and conflicting - mandate of price-stability and full employment. The Fed was sold to Congress via the ‘hook’ that it would allow Congress to both control inflation and maximize employment if only Congress would agree to set up this version of a central bank in the US.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Central European Currencies Running Out of Steam / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The three major currencies of central Europe have appreciated strongly against the euro so far this year, boosted to varying degrees by rising interest rates, strong economic growth, and positive investor sentiment - the latter buoyed by the final confirmation that Slovakia will adopt the euro next January. However, there are some preliminary signs that the region's strong growth rates are about to slow. Interest rates may be at their peak in Poland and Hungary, and a rate cut may be in the cards in the Czech Republic. All of which suggests that the Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint may also have peaked for now.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Crisis Currencies Poised to Surge as Frightened Capital Flows from Risk to Safety / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: On various occasions in the past couple months, my editorial has tried to bring to light some of the bright spots, or shall I say "relatively less dark spots", in the U.S. economy.
Ultimately, I've tried to connect it to the dollar and its potential to temporarily buck (pun intended) its long-term bearish trend. Sometimes I've had it right, for a little while anyway, and other times I've had it wrong, or at least the market told me I did.
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Saturday, July 26, 2008
Buy $100 Billion Note on Ebay / Currencies / Emerging Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Full marks for eBay entrepreneurs for stepping in where forex traders have lost count of the zeros being added to the Zim dollar every few days. This is amid Zimbabwe's dizzying rate of inflation – officially quoted at 2.2 million per cent, but thought actually to be in the region of 12.5 million percent!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
British Pound, Euro Racing Lower Against a Resurgent US Dollar? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Black_Swan
The story so far this week was fired up yesterday via dollar positive comments from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (same old stuff) and monetary policy comments from Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser.
Bottom line: the US dollar zipped higher and is continuing its rocket-ride today.
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Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Will the Euro Escape the Maladies Inflicting the U.S.Dollar ? / Currencies / Euro
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Last week all was well, as no less a person as Paulson, the Treasury Secretary reassured us all that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were sufficiently capitalized. Last weekend a plan was put into effect to ensure their survival. The second largest bank failure ever in the States Indy Bank went bust. Many believe that we will see up to 150 U.S. banks go down in this worsening credit crunch. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Collapsing Fiat Currency In Need of a Golden Parachute with a Silver Lining / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Money served throughout history as a medium of exchange and as a storehouse of value. But when gold and silver coins were replaced by paper currencies, money no longer was the same. Paper money, no longer having intrinsic value, now functions only as a medium of exchange, a function that degrades over time.
The value of paper money continually loses value because the constant printing of paper money constantly dilutes the value of previously printed money. The more paper money printed, the less paper money is worth; and today, money is being printed at a faster rate than at any time in history.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Fiat Faith Based Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The Latin term "fiat" roughly translates to "there shall be". When we refer to fiat money, we are referring to money that exists because the government declares it into existence. It is not based on production or earnings, and not backed by any commodity. It is solely based on trusting the government. Fiat money is exchanged in the economy as long as there is faith in the government that issues it.Read full article... Read full article...