Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 01, 2015
Why The Super Bearish Gold and Silver COTs Portend a Plunging Euro... / Currencies / Euro
By: Clive_Maund
It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying "Alimentary, my dear Watson". More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking "Elementary, my dear Watson". Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.
Today we are going make light of what to other analysts may be abstruse and possibly baffling, by "joining the dots" to demonstrate the linear connection between an extremely bearish silver COT and an imminent crashing euro, so that by the conclusion of this article, you, dear reader, will have a clear understanding of what is set to unfold, and will be able to explain to other confused souls that it really is elementary.
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Friday, October 30, 2015
$DXY - Cash US Dollar Index Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
This might be interesting. As of early this morning the dollar is forming a failed breakout. The path of the dollar was clearly down until the ECB derailed it with talk of more easing last week. Are the fundamentals starting to pull it back down again?
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Thursday, October 29, 2015
The Chartology of The Currency Wars …What If ! / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
It finally looks like a major inflection point is getting very close to resolving itself in many different areas of the markets. The US dollar is the key driver of this inflection point which is starting to breakout from a nearly eight month bullish falling wedge consolidation pattern. This afternoon the US dollar began a strong rally that is somewhat unusual during the afternoon hours unless it is Fed Day where anything goes . The daily chart below now shows today’s bar clearly above the top rail of the bullish falling wedge. It’s still possible that we could see a backtest to the top rail at 97.12 before the next impulse move up begins in earnest.
Saturday, October 24, 2015
GBP/JPY Setting Up For Potential Failure / Currencies / British Pound
By: Richard_Cox
For the most part, financial markets have stabilized this year as volatility has slowed and overall risk aversion has been largely absent. These types of trends can have a significant impact on sentiment and the ways that specific asset types are traded, so it is critical for market traders to have a sense of where we stand in terms of generalized uncertainty. This is especially true for forex traders, as there tends to be higher levels of short-term positioning seen in those markets.
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Saturday, October 24, 2015
Currency Devaluation's Dangerous Role in Deflation / Currencies / Deflation
By: EWI
The following article on currency devaluation's role in deflation is from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. EWI has just released a new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby, to help investors prepare now for the deflationary threat they see around the corner. Click here to read the new report >>
China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank.
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Friday, October 23, 2015
GBP/USD Tests Last Week's High / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, official data showed that British retail sales increased by 1.9% in the previous month, beating forecasts for a gain of 0.3%. Additionally, year-on-year, retail sales rose by 6.5% in September, above expectations for a 4.8% gain. On top of that, core retail sales (without automobile sales) jumped 1.7% last month also beating forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Thanks to these bullish numbers GBP/USD rebounded sharply and climbed to the last week's high. Will we see higher values of the exchange rate in the coming days?
Friday, October 23, 2015
Bye, Bye Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: Dan_Norcini
So how does it fell Mr. Euro to get smacked upside the head by your supposed caretaker?
Mario Draghi must be taking lessons from the Bank of Japan because this is one of the best verbal whoopin’s I have seen put on a currency.
Mario yanked the rug out hard; so hard, that the basement is now evident.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Did USD Just Bottom? Did EUR Just Top? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
Find out free -- now, during Forex FreeWeek at elliottwave.com!
Late last week -- and then again on Monday -- EURUSD, the world's most traded forex pair, fell sharply. In fact, the euro lost almost 200 pips, or two cents, against the buck.
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Wednesday, October 21, 2015
US Dollar Key Days / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
The next two days are key. If the bounce over the last three days was the start of a new daily cycle then gold will drop down into a hard daily cycle low.
If one the other hand the dollar forms a swing high today and closes significantly back below the 10 DMA and more importantly follows through to the downside tomorrow it will signal that the bounce was a counter trend move and the dollar is going to test the August lows before the cycle bottoms.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2015
EWI's FOREX FreeWeek is now on: Get free, live forecasts for USD, EUR, JPY and more / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Greetings,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just announced the start of a rare, free event for forex traders at elliottwave.com:
Forex FreeWeek, Oct. 19-23
Now through noon on Oct. 23, test-drive their trader-focused Currency Pro Service -- at no cost to you.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2015
(Interview) Forex FreeWeek Preview: "Dollar is at an inflection point" / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Forex FreeWeek at elliottwave.com runs Oct. 19-23
Currency Pro Service editor Jim Martens sat down with us Friday, October 16, to talk about what he expects to see from the dollar and related pairs during Forex FreeWeek.
Jim also shares his tips on controlling your emotions when trading and explains the importance of riding the trend in a market.
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Thursday, October 15, 2015
GBPAUD: More Gains Are In Sight / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
We have seen deep three wave decline in on GBPAUD from August highs that can be now coming to an end after recent nice turn up from 2.0785 area. Notice that there was a triangle in wave (B) so recent leg down must be wave (C) final wave within a corrective move. That said, our view is bullish now, so be aware of more gains ahead, especially after 2.1305 is broken. We are tracking this one for longs.
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Thursday, October 15, 2015
U.S. Dollar, Currency Markets Trend Forecasts Update / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: David_Petch
I thought I would do a deeper dive to revisit the currencies and US Dollar again, because there are a lot of comments out in cyberspace and the general media about how things are not that bad. The US stock market is having a massive short-covering rally, which is merely a mechanical knee-jerk reaction to an oversold condition. As I mentioned last week, there is still going to be another 2-3 weeks of upside in the "other currencies" and commodities, but when a top is put in place, one will want to make sure they are sitting on a chair, because it will get ugly.
Friday, October 09, 2015
Forex Trading: "Elliott wave analysis helps me cut to the chase." / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Fresh insights from Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens
Jim Martens is one of the few forex Elliott wave instructors in the world and a long-time editor of Elliott Wave International's forex-focused Currency Pro Service. A sought-after speaker, Jim has been applying Elliott waves since the mid-1980s, including two years at the George Soros-affiliated hedge fund, Nexus Capital, Ltd.
Below is an excerpt from his latest interview. To read the full interview -- and get Jim's latest big-picture forecast for EURUSD, tips on how to learn Elliott fast, and practical ideas on how to treat your forex trading as a business -- complete your free Club EWI profile. It only takes 30 seconds.
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Sunday, October 04, 2015
Fiat Currency Endgame - More QE, NIRP, bails-ins and Pensions Plunder... / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Clive_Maund
The fiat money system should be branded a "crime against humanity" because of what its unbridled excesses must inevitably lead to - chaos, destitution and war - which is what we are clearly heading towards.
Over the past year or so, the Fed let the idea take hold that it was going to gingerly start a rate rise cycle, which helped to fuel a big rise in the dollar. The ruse worked and the Fed got a lot of bang for no buck. However when push came to shove and the time arrived a few weeks back when they had to "put up or shut up", they backed down, and it became apparent that the whole thing was a hoax. They do actually want to start a rate rise cycle, in order to start trying to undo the enormous damage caused by their profligacy of recent years, and because they are gravely concerned about their own bloated balance sheet, but it is apparent to all and especially them that if they try it they will crash already very fragile stockmarkets and burst various asset bubbles simultaneously, like the Real Estate bubble, not to mention the towering derivatives overhang.
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Thursday, October 01, 2015
US Dollar El Peso Colombiano! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
It was the year 2001 when I first entered the country of Colombia. I crossed over the Rumichaca Bridge which separates Ecuador and Colombia and got the first bus of the day from Ipiales headed for Cali. I'd considered travelling overnight but had thought better of it having been warned about night time robberies along the way.
It wasn't long into my Colombian adventure when things heated up. Around 3 hours into the journey, travelling in some spectacular mountain scenery between the towns of Pasto and Popayan, the bus came to a screeching halt. That was because around five men in military fatigues jumped into the middle of the Panamericana highway pointing their guns at the bus. Here we go!
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Thursday, September 24, 2015
Deflation Signals Abound for U.S. Dollar, Forex Markets and Commodities / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
It appears we maybe entering into another bout of deflation by the looks of some of the charts I’ve been looking at. The US dollar will be the key driver if this second leg down is going to take hold. Many of the commodities charts are looking pretty heavy right now along with some of the commodities based currencies.
Lets start by looking at the most important currency in the world the US dollar. We’ll start with a two year daily chart for the US dollar that shows the big impulse move up that began last year in July and ended in March of this year. That big impulse move up was made up of four small red consolidation patterns two of which were bullish rising wedges which tells us the move is strong. Note how much bigger our blue bullish falling wedge consolidation pattern is vs the smaller red consolidation patterns that made up the impulse move. This is a perfect place for the US dollar to consolidate those big gains made last year. From a Chartology perspective this is exactly what you would like to see. The US dollar is working on its fourth reversal point that won’t be complete until it touches the top rail. At that point the pattern will be complete but we’ll still have to wait for the breakout to occur.
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Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Indonesian Rupiah Is In Trouble, Again / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The rupiah is plumbing the depth it last visited in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. The accompanying chart of the rupiah’s value against the U.S. dollar tells the tale. Although the rupiah’s recent plunge is not as dramatic as the post-July 1997 float of the rupiah, it is ugly nevertheless.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
GBP Basing For New Rally? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Richard_Cox
This year, we have seen a large amount of weakness and selling pressure that has been directed as the British Pound (GBP). There have been a few different explanations for why this has been the case, as the policy trajectory is still largely unclear with respect to the stated policy stance exhibited by the Bank of England.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
Currency Wars, Battles, And Hostile Actions / Currencies / Currency War
By: Raymond_Matison
With its recent miniscule 2% devaluation of the Yuan, media pundits noted that China had now also entered into the global currency war. What this comment implies is that other countries with the ability to issue or print their own currency, including the U.S., have been participating in a currency war by devaluing their own currency as a hoped for means to increase their country exports and thereby stimulate their economies. As China’s currency has been pegged to the USD, it had recently grown stronger as a byproduct of dollar’s recent dramatic strength. Accordingly, the peg that China used to tie-in to the dollar’s value had increased the Chinese yuan to a level that was hurting their exports. The resulting devaluation was China’s attempt to correct partially this unwelcome currency appreciation.