Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
EURUSD Final Bear Rally Leg Underway / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Price recently traded down to support outlined in previous analysis before reversing and trading higher in impulsive style. While a turn back up was expected in order for the bear rally to embark on the final leg higher, this move was on the back of the ECB announcement.
There is always a reason for a move and the market does indeed work in mysterious ways. Some will say this was just a lucky coincidence and I must admit I don't truly understand it. However, what I do understand is that I have seen this type of stuff happen on too many occasions for it to be just a coincidence.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Keynes on the Menace of Printing Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Michael_J_Kosares
How the celebrated economist might have structured his investment portfolio today
Read full article... Read full article...“I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.” – John Maynard Keynes, 1946
John Maynard Keynes made that admission to Henry Clay, a member of the Bank of England's Advisory Committee, in 1946. Ten days later he passed away. Keynes had come full circle – from economic interventionist extraordinaire to proponent of Adam Smith's laissez faire. Twenty-five years after that, Richard Nixon would suspend dollar convertibility, scrap the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime system of which Keynes was the principal architect and allow currencies and gold to float freely in international markets. The fiat money system of the late 20th and early 21st centuries was born. Though a radically different system from the one Keynes created in the aftermath of World War II, Richard Nixon declared upon its launch that "we are all Keynsians now."
Saturday, December 05, 2015
Euro, Dollar, Buy the Rumor and Sell the News Alive in Forex Markets / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EconMatters
ECB Disappoints
All those who continue to forget this trading maxim were royally punished on Thursday morning as the ECB could not match the trading enthusiasm built into the move in shorting the Euro and thus going long the US Dollar for the prior 7 weeks lead up into the ECB Monetary Policy Decision.
This is such a strong trading maxim to buy the rumor, and sell the actual news that it is the exception rather than the rule where an event over delivers. The best move is to take profits the day before the event as opposed to getting crushed on the news which happened today in the Euro and US Dollar forex trades. Literally the amount of crushing that some traders took this morning regarding giving up a month`s worth of profits in an hour is stomach churning.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
US Dollar Index Technical Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
The US Dollar index has made marginal new highs which I believe will turn out to be a false break top. Let's take a top down approach beginning with the monthly chart.
Wednesday, December 02, 2015
U.S. Treasury Secretary Makes Sad Admission about Coinage Devaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Traders are bidding up the U.S. dollar and dumping metals as they become more convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting. Janet Yellen and company have been talking about raising rates for the better part of a year, though. All talk and no action so far.
Will they finally hike or keep crying wolf? We'll find out when the Fed meets on December 15-16.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2015
How Money Disappears in a Fractional-Reserve Money System / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Frank_Shostak
Most experts are of the view that the massive monetary pumping by the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the world from another Great Depression. On this the Federal Reserve Chairman at the time Ben Bernanke is considered the man that saved the world. Bernanke in turn attributes his actions to the writings of Professor Milton Friedman who blamed the Federal Reserve for causing the Great Depression of 1930s by allowing the money supply to plunge by over 30 percent.
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
U.S. Dollar Remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew spoke with Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Lew discussed how government can address the lack of access to banking in the United States, financial services' rules and regulations and the benefits of Dodd-Frank.
On the IMF elevated the Chinese yuan, Lew said: "The U.S. dollar remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason." He added: "We've also had long, ongoing discussions with China about their currency practices. They have made commitments to us that will not intervene in ways that are unfair. And those are important commitments. And they know that we're going to hold them to those commitments."
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Sunday, November 29, 2015
GBP British Pound Likely to Rally Against Euro / Currencies / British Pound
By: Richard_Cox
The EUR/GBP is often a neglected pair when we look at activity in the currency markets, as alternatives like the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD tend to receive most of the market headlines. But there are some potentially significant implications for the current activity that is being witnessed in the EUR/GBP, and this sets up some interesting trading possibilities for forex traders in these areas.
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Thursday, November 26, 2015
Triggers In US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
To be sure, groups of oil rags are accumulating in the Western financial basement. They await an incident to light them on fire to produce the grandest bonfire in modern history. Many incidents, events, and decisions created the current broken untenable wrecked set of conditions that together comprise the structural breakdown, upon which systemic failure is witnessed each day. The 1990 decade saw the creation of bank derivatives, which compensated for Western bank system insolvency. It was the dirty secret in backfire from a decade of outsourcing US industry to the Pacific Rim. The refusal by Greenspan to permit a recession early in the 2000 decade interrupted a normal housing correction, and initiated another credit stimulus. The result was the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis which will forever bear the Greenspan signature. The Lehman Brothers killjob was important to force the big Western banks to share the load, to tie (lash) themselves together, and to assure the systemic failure in an inexorable march to ruin. The LIBOR rate scandal confirmed that the London hive did not produce honey, but rather scum and dross.
Saturday, November 21, 2015
GBP Sterling's 180 Turn / Currencies / British Pound
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Is it finally catching up with GBP? The British pound defied gravity during most of the week, shrugging disappointing figures on inflation, retail sales and the CBI trend survey. A somewhat hawkish speech by BoE MPC member Ben Broadbent on Wednesday may have been among the causes behind the gains. The pound even managed to rally against the US dollar on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an expectedly hawkish set of FOMC minutes. Eventually, GBP saw the peak on Thursday evening with GBPUSD giving up at the near confluence of the 55-DMA and 200-DMAs at $1.5312 and $1.5336. Unfortunately, our short GBPUSD trade in the Premium Insights (opened on Nov 6) was stopped out at $1.5330, only 6 pips below the high of the week. After that, GBPUSD shed 1.5 cent to settle near $1.5200.
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Thursday, November 12, 2015
USD, XEU, CRB, DBC, Oil, Copper and Gold Chartology of Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
Tonight I would like to update some of the charts on the possible inflection point we looked at about three weeks or so ago. That possible inflection point is still gaining momentum to the downside as the deflationary environment still looks good to go. No market goes straight up or down so one needs to expect some turbulence along the way.
In order for the deflationary theme to play out we will need to see a strong US dollar which will affect the commodities complex and other important currencies of the world. Below is a closeup view for the US dollar that now shows the bullish falling wedge in breakout mode with one backtest to the top rail so far.
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Wednesday, November 11, 2015
The US Dollar Rally Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade.
When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars.
And if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%… and put that money into anything yielding more… you could make a killing.
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Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Top in Bitcoin Price Might Be behind Us / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: short speculative positions, target at $153, stop-loss at $515.
Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama has recently expressed his views on Bitcoin in an interview with the Bitcoin Uncensored Podcast:
Read full article... Read full article...BU [Bitcoin Uncensored]: If you're carrying that much cash, you probably would want the anonymity features of bitcoin. On another note, why do we have 2% processing charges on credit cards you would say? If in fact the cost of moving money is zero.
Thursday, November 05, 2015
Bitcoin Price Surges 55% In Month – Chinese Moving Capital Into Bitcoin and Gold / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: GoldCore
Bitcoin has been surging in value since mid October and gained more than 20% yesterday alone. At one point, it hit a yearly high of more than $491 (see chart).
Tuesday, November 03, 2015
How China and the West Work Together to Manipulate the Global Currency War / Currencies / Currency War
By: MISES
Brendan Brown writes: From reading the commentaries you might have imagined that the process of a currency winning international reserve status depends on getting the IMF seal of approval. At least that seems to be the story with China.
So, strange to tell, the great international monies of the past evolved either before the IMF was created or without its help. Think of the Deutsche mark and Swiss franc — the two upstarts of the 1970s and 1980s — or briefly the Japanese yen when it enjoyed great popularity. Their emergence was due to the path of monetary stability chosen by their issuing authorities together with complete freedom from restrictions.
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Monday, November 02, 2015
Bitcoin Price Doubles in 10 Months / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Bitcoin is on course for posting its 8th consecutive weekly gain (longest series of advances since late 2013) and is up 113% from its January lows. The recent break out in momentum emerged from last week's decision from the European Court of Justice to classify Bitcoin as a currency rather than a commodity, which means it will be exempt from VAT, thereby, improving its chances of being traded in an exchange.
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Sunday, November 01, 2015
Why The Super Bearish Gold and Silver COTs Portend a Plunging Euro... / Currencies / Euro
By: Clive_Maund
It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying "Alimentary, my dear Watson". More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking "Elementary, my dear Watson". Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.
Today we are going make light of what to other analysts may be abstruse and possibly baffling, by "joining the dots" to demonstrate the linear connection between an extremely bearish silver COT and an imminent crashing euro, so that by the conclusion of this article, you, dear reader, will have a clear understanding of what is set to unfold, and will be able to explain to other confused souls that it really is elementary.
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Friday, October 30, 2015
$DXY - Cash US Dollar Index Chart / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Savage
This might be interesting. As of early this morning the dollar is forming a failed breakout. The path of the dollar was clearly down until the ECB derailed it with talk of more easing last week. Are the fundamentals starting to pull it back down again?
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Thursday, October 29, 2015
The Chartology of The Currency Wars …What If ! / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Rambus_Chartology
It finally looks like a major inflection point is getting very close to resolving itself in many different areas of the markets. The US dollar is the key driver of this inflection point which is starting to breakout from a nearly eight month bullish falling wedge consolidation pattern. This afternoon the US dollar began a strong rally that is somewhat unusual during the afternoon hours unless it is Fed Day where anything goes . The daily chart below now shows today’s bar clearly above the top rail of the bullish falling wedge. It’s still possible that we could see a backtest to the top rail at 97.12 before the next impulse move up begins in earnest.
Saturday, October 24, 2015
GBP/JPY Setting Up For Potential Failure / Currencies / British Pound
By: Richard_Cox
For the most part, financial markets have stabilized this year as volatility has slowed and overall risk aversion has been largely absent. These types of trends can have a significant impact on sentiment and the ways that specific asset types are traded, so it is critical for market traders to have a sense of where we stand in terms of generalized uncertainty. This is especially true for forex traders, as there tends to be higher levels of short-term positioning seen in those markets.
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