Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
UK Election Ignores BREXIT, GREXIT, Significant Economic Risks / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: GoldCore
UK election today expected to yield “hung parliament”- Election not seen marked decline in pound as was the case in run up to last election
- Election ‘chaos’ could trigger a ‘Lehman moment’ for pound
- Recent history shows Labour victory not inherently bad for sterling
- Concern that Miliband’s Labour closer to that of Brown than Blair
- BOE warn deficits could “trigger a deterioration in market sentiment towards the UK”
- “Punch and Judy” politics ignores BREXIT, GREXIT and significant economic risk
Thursday, May 07, 2015
UK General Election Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of the election, the EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have hardly budged for the past 2 months, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 10 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
15 Hours to Save England from SNP Scottish Nationalist Dictatorship - Election 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
England is sleep walking towards a potentially catastrophic election outcome, one of where Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond's Scottish Nationalists who with just 4% of the vote would hold the balance of power over 85% of the electorate in England via a weak Milliband minority Labour government, as the final set of opinion polls imply could happen primarily due to votes wasted on UKIP that results in denying the Conservatives some 20-30 additional seats that look set to mostly being lost to Labour.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, Sterling and House Prices Forecast Conservative UK Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion pollsters eager to sell their services to the mainstream press, who just as eagerly enjoy publishing attention grabbing headlines of the UK set for the mother of all indecisive election results, one of neither major party even with the Lib-Dems being able to form a government without the aid of the SNP insurgency that is determined to destroy Britain through bankruptcy by going on a debt fuelled spending spree on the UK's credit card before declaring independence.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Final Opinion Polls Forecast Labour-Lib Dem Minority SNP Supported Government - Election 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the leaders of the three major parties may be busy dashing around the UK on the last day of campaigning ahead of Thursdays poll, in reality they are unlikely to make any difference to election outcome, just as the last 2 months of frenetic campaigning has seen hardly any change in the opinion polls that unanimously point to an extreme hung parliament where even with Lib Dem backing neither Labour, nor the Conservatives will be able to muster a parliamentary working majority.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam Seat Won, Race on to Save Lib Dem Marginal's / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who apparently where the opinion pollsters are concerned is at risk of losing his Sheffield Hallam seat to Labours Oliver Coppard, said goodbye to the good folks of Sheffield Hallam with a thank you note sent to most if not all residents and began his 36 hour 1000 mile dash on the Lib Dem battle bus across the UK to bolster the vote in more than a dozen Lib Dem marginal constituencies.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Conservatives Nightmare of Labour - Lib Dem Minority Government - Election Forecast 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 2 days to go until Britain goes to the polls the desperation is evident on the faces of the politicians as the ferociously campaign for a handful more of seats that could enough to form the next government as one thing the opinion polls agree upon is that no major party will win an outright majority.
Monday, May 04, 2015
Nate Silver UK General Election Forecast 2015 as Wrong as 2010? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last weeks BBC Panorama programme featured Nate Silver who apparently is famous for forecasting the outcome of the 2012 US election, so with much press hype is expected to accurately forecast results for the May 7th UK General election. The BBC Panorama programme after near 30 minutes of mind numbingly boring footage of basically a caravan driving around the UK, finally has Nate Silver state his forecast conclusion that put the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour 270, SNP 48, Lib Dems 24 and UKIP on just 1 seat.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
UK Election 2015 Forecast - The Most Probable Outcome is... / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's voters go to the polls in just a few days time with the opinion polls suggesting no major party will come even close to winning a majority that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies, to tax cutting promises, to spending bonanzas on public services, to promises to cut the deficit, contradictory promises that just cannot become manifest which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls during the past two months of intense campaigning as both Labour and Conservative even with Lib Dem support remain well short of an overall majority.
Friday, May 01, 2015
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There remain just 6 days until the voters of Britain go to the polls with the nations share of the vote spread widely amongst Britain's 6 significant political parties that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies to tax cutting promises to spending bonanzas on public services, where virtually 70% of that which is being promised just cannot happen because politicians promises to increase spending, cut taxes AND cut the deficit are pure smoke and mirrors, which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls following two months of intense campaigning and thus unlikely to shift in the remaining few days becasue voters understand that probability favours another minority led coalition government of sorts which means that at least 1/3rd of the manifestos never mind the more recent promises will be jettisoned with many excuses ready for why.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Labour Leads in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, Latest Ashcroft Opinion Poll / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The latest Lord Ashcroft opinion poll for Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency shows that Labour has managed to maintain a slender lead over the Lib Dem Leader as Nick Clegg fights a ferocious battle to prevent losing his seat to the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard, which if lost would scupper any hopes for a continuation of the Tory led Coalition as without Nick Clegg the left of centre Lib Dems with veer towards the Labour party even if it would result in messy outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters and political pundits paint a picture of Labour standing a good chance of winning Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat that illustrates the national battle that Labour is engaged in against the Lib-Dems and Conservatives in key marginal seats across England which means that despite losing as many as 40 of their 41 Scottish MP's to the SNP, Labour still hopes to have won enough seats in England and Wales to form a minority government under the strings of the SNP.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Conservatives Start to Pull Away from Labour in Opinion Polls, But is it too Late? Election Forecast 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 10 days left to go the pace of campaigning is intensifying with economic austerity abandoned in favour of a literal flood of daily voter bribes such as Labours Stamp duty bribe of upto £5k for first time buyers, and attempting to appeal to the 5 million private renters by offering 3 year rent controls. Whilst the Conservatives are offering to take 3 million on minimum wage out of tax altogether, though not mentioning if that includes national insurance as well. Meanwhile the SNP play the wolf in sheep's clothing game with front woman Nicola Sturgeon offering conciliatory messages as she bakes cakes, all the whilst hiding the truth that she is not even standing for parliament instead it will be Alex Salmond who will be calling the shots over a weak Labour minority government. That leaves the Lib Dem's offering to mellow both Labour and Conservative extremes as they ride around in their chauffeur driven limousines.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Sheffield School Places Election Crisis - Affluent Schools Demand Increase in Funding / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The latest saga in Sheffield's school places crisis is the ganging together of Sheffield's affluent area state schools to demand an increase in funding per pupil so as to better match the amount received per pupil funding for Sheffield's less affluent area schools that in a letter Head teachers of the affluent schools typically estimate as £3,477 against as high as £5,000 per pupils for less affluent area schools.
Monday, April 27, 2015
Labour Bribes Voters With Housing Market Stamp Duty Cut and Rent Controls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With both Labour and the Conservatives within 10 seats of one another in the opinion polls (273-283) the voter bribes from each are flowing like milk and honey as both parties have temporarily jettisoned economic austerity cuts in favour of housing market pumping election promises that they will in large part not be able to keep without rampant debt printing.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015, School Places Crisis, Can Nick Clegg Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg's parliamentary seat is situated in Sheffield's leafy affluent Hallam constituency in the south west of the city that whilst being part of a Labour heartland city, in reality could just as easily be transported to any affluent area of the South East, as for instance a typical 4 bedroom detached property would tend to start at £400,000 and could easily range upto twice that amount, prices which tends to surprise many relocating from the South East to this area of Sheffield.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
SNP Publish England's Suicide Note as Pollsters Still Forecast Labour-SNP Election Disaster / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Scottish Nationalists published their "Stronger for Scotland" on the backs of a Weaker England Manifesto that laid out how a defacto SNP dictatorship over England would operate by effectively sucking the financial blood out of a weak Labour minority English government before achieving Independence, especially given the fact that Scotland dodged a bullet last September for if they had voted for Independence then given the subsequent oil price crash, Scotland today would be just as bankrupt as Greece is.
Saturday, April 18, 2015
UK Housing Crisis, Immigration, Population Growth, Election Forecast 2015 - Video / ElectionOracle / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britains housing crisis is one of limited new build supply that consistently fails to keep pace with new demand that typically tends to average twice the rate of supply resulting in an worsening housing crisis each year which explains why academic theories of UK house prices being in a bubble that is always imminently destined to burst persistently fails to materialise. Instead the reality is one of house prices relentlessly grinding ever higher with an ever escalating house prices to earnings ratio that on an average stands at over 7X earnings, and far beyond that of virtually every other western nation and in some parts of the UK is greater than 25X earnings.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Conservatives Bribe Labour Voters by Extending Right to Buy to Housing Association Tenants / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The central piece of the Conservative manifesto to be launched today will be the announcement to extend the near 35 year right to buy your council house scheme (over 2 million sold) to 1.3 million housing association tenants so that they too may buy their homes at deep discounts of as much as 70% / £102,700 per property in London and £77k for the rest of the UK. The starting discount for housing association homes after 3 years of tenancy will be 35%, rising by 1% per year, and 50% for flats rising by 2% per year. Though I don't see how this would exactly work because the Conservatives are proposing to sell homes they do not own, so may face stiff resistance from housing associations.
Monday, April 13, 2015
Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last weeks decision to go on the personal offensive against Ed Miliband may have seemed like a good idea at the time amongst Conservative party strategists but the personal attacks suggesting that Ed Miliband would stab the UK in the back just as he did to his own brother David by being prepared to scrap Trident in exchange for SNP post election support was initiated by Tory Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, a statement that senior Conservatives from the Prime Minister down refused to criticise.