Tory Attack on Ed Milliband Backfires as Labour Takes Opinion Polls Lead
ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 13, 2015 - 04:26 PM GMTLast weeks decision to go on the personal offensive against Ed Miliband may have seemed like a good idea at the time amongst Conservative party strategists but the personal attacks suggesting that Ed Miliband would stab the UK in the back just as he did to his own brother David by being prepared to scrap Trident in exchange for SNP post election support was initiated by Tory Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, a statement that senior Conservatives from the Prime Minister down refused to criticise.
“Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister.”
“We saw in that leadership election just what he would do to get into power. We saw what he did to his own brother. We need to know what he would do.
"We can't be sure what kind of backstairs deal he is likely to do with the SNP... that is the uncertainty."
Market Oracle | May2015 .com | Electoralcalculus .co.uk | ElectionForecast .co.uk | The Guardian | |
28th Feb |
12th Apr | 12th Apr | 13th Apr | 13th Apr | |
Conservative | 296 | 267 | 277 | 283 | 271 |
Labour | 262 | 277 | 284 | 274 | 271 |
SNP | 35 | 54 | 48 | 42 | 51 |
Lib Dem | 30 | 26 | 17 | 27 | 28 |
UKIP | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Now some four days on the polls have swing in Labours favour as voters were clearly put off by the personal attacks against the Labour leader. Whilst today Labour published their manifesto (election bribes booklet) which I am sure the political pundits will go through with a fine tooth comb. Though the strong probability for a hung parliament makes manifestos redundant, not just because politicians lie and make promises that they just cannot keep with a long list of excuses ready as to why they could not fulfill their promises, but that post election parties will negotiate the actual programme for government as part of a coalition agreement. So today's Labour and tomorrows Conservative Manifestos are approximately 50% BS fantasy election bribes.
Hung Parliament Seats Calculations
The opinion polls currently forecast seat averages for Conservatives on 274.5 and Labour on 276.5. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.
Conservatives + Lib Dems (24.5) = 299 - FAIL
Add DUP 8 seats = 307 - FAIL
Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24.5) = 301 - FAIL
Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (49) =325 - SUCCESS, with perhaps the Lib Dems deciding to tag along for the limousine rides.
The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.
May2015.com (New Statesman)
MO 28th Feb |
12th Apr | 7th Apr | 31st Mar | 28th Mar | 21st Mar | 12th Mar | 5th Mar | 26th Feb | 10th Feb | |
Conservative | 296 | 267 | 271 | 278 | 271 | 274 | 281 | 255 | 270 | 270 |
Labour | 262 | 277 | 273 | 265 | 273 | 271 | 263 | 283 | 271 | 272 |
SNP | 35 | 54 | 54 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 56 |
Lib Dem | 30 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 25 | |
UKIP | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Keeps flip flopping between Labour and Conservative in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.
Electoralcalculus.co.uk
MO 28th Feb |
12th Apr | 7th Apr | 29th Mar | 22nd Mar | 14th Mar | 9th Mar | 27th Feb | 30th Jan | |
Conservative | 296 | 277 | 275 | 274 | 267 | 262 | 267 | 265 | 265 |
Labour | 262 | 284 | 286 | 287 | 300 | 301 | 298 | 301 | 297 |
SNP | 35 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 48 | 46 | 55 | 46 | 50 |
Lib Dem | 30 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | |
UKIP | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time that suggest will converge with other forecasters over the next few weeks.
ElectionForecast.co.uk
MO 28th Feb |
13th Apr | 8th Apr | 30th Mar | 22nd Mar | 11th Mar | 25th Feb | 13th Feb | |
Conservative | 296 | 283 | 287 | 282 | 286 | 295 | 284 | 280 |
Labour | 262 | 274 | 270 | 281 | 276 | 267 | 279 | 283 |
SNP | 35 | 42 | 43 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 39 | 37 |
Lib Dem | 30 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
UKIP | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 22 |
Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.
The Guardian
MO 28th Feb |
13th Apr | 8th Apr | 31st Mar | 29th Mar | 18th Mar | 11th Mar | 27th Feb | 28th Jan | |
Conservative | 296 | 271 | 272 | 278 | 275 | 277 | 279 | 276 | 273 |
Labour | 262 | 271 | 273 | 271 | 271 | 269 | 266 | 271 | 273 |
SNP | 35 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 49 |
Lib Dem | 30 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 |
UKIP | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Others | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.
Seats Forecast Trend Analysis
Overall the opinion pollsters are currently trending in favour of the Labour party which if the trend continues implies that Labour will be the largest party on election day on about 290 seats that is contrary to my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.
Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-54, against my expectations of just 35.
Conclusion
In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a widening margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th.
UK General Election Forecast 2015
In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
- 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others
UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:
Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.
The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.
Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.
The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.
Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:
The opinion polls suggest that the UK is going to take a gamble on a Labour SNP government which my analysis has consistently warned will be a losing bet for Britain (SNP Labour Death Embrace). However, as is often the case that the opinion polls can be wrong, just as the Scottish referendum reality was never the 50/50 proposition that opinion polls suggested at the time (45/55), and so today's marginal advantage to a Labour SNP Alliance should at least resolve in a continuation of the Conservative / Lib Dem Coalition. Though the Conservatives may try to go it alone with the objective of a second better engineered election outcome within the next 12 months as the economy continues to grow above trend.
Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.
Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50238.html
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.