Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Is Stock Market Setting Up for a Blow-Off Top? - 29th May 20
Strong Signs In The Mobile Gaming Market - 29th May 20
Last Clap for NHS and Carers, Sheffield UK - 29th May 20
The AI Mega-trend Stocks Investing - When to Sell? - 28th May 20
Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? - 28th May 20
Stocks: What to Make of the Day-Trading Frenzy - 28th May 20
Why You’ll Never Get Another Stimulus Check - 28th May 20
Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis - 28th May 20
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order - 28th May 20
Europe’s Coronavirus Pandemic Dilemma - 28th May 20
I Can't Pay My Payday Loans What Will Happen - 28th May 20
Predictive Modeling Suggests US Stock Markets 12% Over Valued - 27th May 20
Why Stocks Bear Market Rallies Are So Tricky - 27th May 20
Precious Metals Hit Resistance - 27th May 20
Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life - 27th May 20
Where the Markets are heading after COVID-19? - 27th May 20
Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? - 26th May 20
Stock Market Key Resistance Breakout Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road - 26th May 20
5 Ways To Amp Up Your CFD Trading Today - 26th May 20
The Anatomy of a Gold Stock Bull Market - 26th May 20
Stock Market Critical Price Level Could Soon Prompt A Big Move - 25th May 20
Will Powell Decouple Gold from the Stock Market? - 25th May 20
How Muslims Celebrated EID in Lockdown Britain 2020 - UK - 25th May 20
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe?

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019 Apr 25, 2019 - 02:14 PM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006.

The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who "kept the faith," before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.

Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, "everyone knew" it was going to $100.

A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.


Silver's "sandpaper decline," 2011-16.


Holding physical metal was no fun, but some did have the courage to buy more, scale down. Mining stocks were a devastating proposition, with 80%-90% declines the norm.

The 2016 run up shocked just about everyone... Weeks and weeks of prices moving up almost in every trading session. Until June, that is. Then a two-year decline wiped out most of those gains and kicked to the curb more than a few long-term silver stackers who finally threw in the towel.

This writer understands how they – and you – feel.


I've been involved in the silver market since 1972 and have pretty much seen it all. I experienced it dropping from $50 an ounce in January 1980 and waited for 22 years to see it begin a new bull run from below $5 an ounce. I remember the euphoria of the near-$50 print in 2011. And, like everyone else, I've felt the pain since then.

What Now?


I think the most common reason that a plan fails, or doesn't even start, is due to not carefully working through the OODA Loop – Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.

But there's another powerful factor standing in the way of success for so many investors.

It has to do with allowing Sentiment to drive investment decisions. In other words, when the overall market tone is negative, there is a tendency to either wait until the coast is clear, or until some magical "lower price point" arrives on the charts.

The problem is that instead, either the price moves up to where you thought it would – for a bigger risk and lower profit potential – or if it does drop, you decide to wait for even lower prices. Either way, it almost guarantees that you won't act.

The reality is that going against sentiment is a great way to lower risk and increase the odds of a bigger payout down the line.

There's Power in the Rule of Three


Reduce anxiety by mentally dividing your physical metals' holdings into three components: Insurance, Investment, and Speculation.

Since metals' prices move counter-cyclically to most other financial categories like the stock market and bonds, your Insurance portion is meant to be held indefinitely, helping offset a major decline in another category.

Hold the Investment portion through what you believe to be the majority of the secular bull run.

For example, when silver topped in May 2011, you might have decided to sell the Speculation component, which may have been purchased at, say, $20... giving you a 100% profit. Then, over the next seven years, you could have bought it back into declining prices at perceived chart support levels.

The psychological benefits of such a strategy should not be underestimated. Some of those who gave up the ghost during the last year or so may have held onto their silver for two or three decades, and never sold an ounce!

Don't quit!


Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell, of Lone Survivor fame says,

If you never quit, you'll never know how to... Never, never give up. In that last second, you may get the card that you needed.

So don't quit on Silver. Run through the OODA Loop again. Rework your Plan. Add another tranche of bullion. Get some gold too.

Read (or re-read) David Morgan's and my book, Second Chance: How to Make (and Keep) Big Money from the Coming Gold and Silver Shock-Wave.

And get a copy of Bob Moriarty's new book on Amazon, Basic Investing in Resource Stocks: The Idiot's Guide. These two titles can take you to – and keep you at – the next level.

Fishing for Success, Safety and Profit? Go Against Sentiment!

I was cold and wet, casting flies in 60 mph winds for giant Rainbow trout on Argentina's remote Jurassic Lake.

The day before, while releasing a 10 pounder from a rock ledge, a wave and high winds had blown me into the lake. The guide somehow grabbed onto my vest so I could claw my way back up the side, breaking 8 fingernails in the process. Talk about negative sentiment!

The next and last day of the trip was drawing a blank. Finally, our guide said it was time to go, and my fishing partner started taking down his rod.

EG Silver Delivery Volume - April 18, 2019But I made one more cast, and after a hard strike and a wild fight, I released a 15-pound Rainbow – my largest of the trip. All because I was willing to "push through the doubt" and take that last cast.

Silver is building up a head of steam for its next big run. India and China's buying continues to increase, even as several big silver miners fight declining production.

Don't be fooled by the market's negative sentiment. Stay in the Game, and take one more cast.

Sell a little on the way up.

Text Box: Physical silver deliveries in Asia are skyrocketingDecide you will claim a seat at the Winners' Table in a few years, when this mega-trend has run its course. I'll see you there...

David Smith is Senior Analyst for TheMorganReport.com and a regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com as well as the LODE Cryptographic Silver Monetary System Project. He has investigated precious metals’ mines and exploration sites in Argentina, Chile, Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, China, Canada and the U.S. He shares resource sector observations withr eaders, the media and North American investment conference attendees.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules